Facts, figures before Woodruff's crucial start

MILWAUKEE -- After stewing for a few days about his latest fifth-inning stumble, Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff decided it was better to press ahead than to start making changes.

So coming off an outing in Cleveland, which he termed “a disgrace,” Woodruff followed his usual between-starts routine ahead of a critical matchup against the Cubs on Friday night. For the Brewers, it begins a stretch of eight straight games, and 13 of their remaining 19 games are against the Cubs and Cardinals -- the teams Milwaukee is chasing in the National League Central.

“I know if I keep putting in the same work, I keep putting in the right work,” Woodruff said, “that eventually things turn around.”

That the Brewers’ Opening Day starter is frustrated exposes the high standard he set last season as a National League All-Star. Woodruff has not been ineffective in 2020, but he also has not taken another step forward.

As he prepares to make his 10th start, Woodruff is 2-3 with a 3.91 ERA compared to 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA in 22 starts last season. He is striking out hitters at roughly the same rate (10.76 per nine innings this season compared to 10.58 last season), walking only a few more (2.93 per nine innings this season compared to 2.22 per nine innings last season) and has allowed precisely the same quality of contact -- 86.1 mph average exit velocity both last year and this year, according to Statcast. That’s in MLB’s 83rd percentile.

Yet Woodruff is unfulfilled. The Brewers are 4-5 when he starts, compared to 18-4 last season. And he’s cleared the sixth inning only three times this year and once in his last six starts.

We asked two of MLB.com’s experts to dig deeper into the numbers.

“One thing that strikes me is how little has changed from last year,” said MLB.com analyst Mike Petriello. “Average exit velo: Identical. Strikeout rate: Basically identical. Walk rate: up ever so slightly [from 6.1 percent to 7.9 percent]. He’s actually getting more popups. End result: Last year’s expected weighted on-base was .286 and this year’s is .284.

“Did you know he’s thrown his slider 100 times and has allowed just two hits on it? He’s clearly using it differently. Last year it was in the zone 44 percent of the time. This year, 33 percent.”

Woodruff is also throwing fewer sliders and more changeups, reflecting a focus on the latter pitch during Spring Training. And he’s throwing fewer four-seam fastballs and more sinkers.

“His expected ERA, which is based on quality of contact plus strikeouts, is 3.14, which is below his actual ERA of 3.91,” said Sarah Langs, a reporter/editor for MLB.com. “That indicates that perhaps he’s pitched better than the results have really shown -- with factors like the team’s defense behind him contributing to why certain batted balls that would’ve been expected to be outs have not been, eventually leading to runs.”

Woodruff said he has peeked at some of the data to ensure that there is nothing out of the ordinary. But he has mostly directed his energy elsewhere.

“I have looked at some of the numbers on my stuff and frankly, it's been better as far as the spin qualities on stuff. Better than last year,” Woodruff said. “So that's an encouraging sign. It's just all about sticking with that process and staying consistent with my work. I know we're running out of time. That's just the cards we've been dealt this year. Everybody's kind of facing that. Some people got off to a good start, some people have not. Some people are kind of just hanging in there. And I'm kind of hanging in that middle trying to finish strong.”

So are the Brewers, who enter the weekend outside of MLB’s expanded playoff picture. They are 19-22, good for third place in the NL Central in a year in which the top two teams in each division, plus two more Wild Card teams, make the playoffs.

Things could change dramatically in the coming days. After their three-game series against the Cubs, the Brewers are scheduled to play 10 of their remaining 16 games against the Cardinals, starting with five games in three days at Miller Park from Monday to Wednesday.

“These last few weeks are going to be a telltale sign of, are we going to do this thing or not?” Woodruff said. “It's going to be fun. We wish there were fans in the stands to make these games a lot more fun. But you know, the last couple of weeks are going to be crazy. I feel like we've done this the past couple years. I can't wait to see how it plays out.”