Blue Jays could target more Francis-like deals this offseason

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- What a month it’s been for Bowden Francis. Time to find another.

Francis was one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball in August, posting a 1.05 ERA with 39 strikeouts over 34 1/3 innings. He chased a no-hitter and established himself, in one incredible blur, as a legitimate member of the Blue Jays’ rotation.

As the Blue Jays look forward to 2025, with Francis becoming a larger part of their plans each time he makes a start, this is a good time to think back to July 6, 2021. It wasn’t a blockbuster, but the Blue Jays’ trade to acquire Francis is the exact type of deal this organization should be chasing this offseason.

Blue Jays got: RHP Trevor Richards, RHP Bowden Francis
Brewers got: 1B/DH Rowdy Tellez

First, let’s go back to the day of the trade to frame who those players were at that time.

Rowdy Tellez was ... a .759 OPS hitter with 37 home runs in 219 career games. An OPS+ of 102 painted Tellez as an above-average MLB hitter, but with little defensive value. His WAR with the Blue Jays hovered around 0.0 and he was stuck in a down year, carrying a .610 OPS that didn’t fit in the club's DH spot, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. moved to first base full time.

Trevor Richards was ... a converted starter who’d posted a 3.20 ERA with 25 strikeouts over 19 2/3 innings with the Brewers since coming over in an earlier trade with the Rays. With a changeup the Blue Jays loved, Richards immediately fit into their middle-relief picture.

Bowden Francis was … a 2017 seventh-round pick, unranked on the Brewers’ Top 30 prospects list, who had a 3.62 ERA over 59 2/3 innings between Double-A Biloxi and Triple-A Nashville in 2021. Francis profiled as a depth starter, but there was still some development time left for the Blue Jays to work with.

The deal worked for everyone. Tellez came to life down the stretch and the Brewers rolled into the postseason with 95 wins. Richards immediately helped the Blue Jays’ bullpen -- which was a problem in 2021 -- and Francis went straight to Triple-A Buffalo, where he built himself into the pitcher we see today.

Rotation depth has been an issue for the Blue Jays for years now, but they’ve dodged the danger over and over again. In 2022, Ross Stripling stepped in to save the day. In '23, Hyun Jin Ryu returned just in time to take Alek Manoah’s rotation spot. This season, Yariel Rodríguez and eventually Francis were able to plug any gaps. The Blue Jays have only needed to reach into the very top levels of their rotation depth, but that good fortune won’t last forever.

Going into 2025, the Blue Jays still have the veteran trio of José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt holding the rotation together. It looks like Rodríguez and Francis will have every opportunity to win jobs on the back end of the rotation, but beyond that, this organization needs multiple additions. With Ricky Tiedemann and Manoah recovering from elbow surgeries deep into next season, it’s not looking like that help will come from within.

Using the structure of the 2021 trade as a loose example, this also aligns with a strength the Blue Jays do still have.

While most of these young players are more dynamic than Tellez and all offer more defensive value, consider the following group: Addison Barger, Leo Jiménez, Spencer Horwitz, Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider. That’s without getting to the new guys and prospects, including Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido and Orelvis Martinez.

Depth is a beautiful thing, but at a certain point, the music stops and there are only a certain number of chairs. Moving a young infield-depth piece to acquire a depth starter feels like a natural pathway here, just as it did in 2021 when the Blue Jays acquired Francis and Richards -- a very useful reliever during his time in Toronto -- for Tellez.

This would all be easier, of course, if the Blue Jays had another starter or two waiting in the upper Minors.

The 2024 season has been full of bad news for the Blue Jays’ top pitching prospects -- led by Tiedemann -- and many of their healthy pitchers are still very young. Filling this developmental gap would be extremely valuable for the organization. But until then, the Blue Jays need to find another Francis or two.