Francis continues to provide long-term optimism for Blue Jays' rotation

ARLINGTON -- Standing beneath a palm tree in the middle of March, Bowden Francis knew something we didn’t.

All spring, Francis was caught between the rotation and the bullpen. The daily conversation rested on his velocity, which tended to look great in the early innings but faded as the game went on. That wouldn’t work in a rotation.

It’s working, though. Francis gave the Blue Jays another six innings of two-run ball in Wednesday’s 2-0 loss to the Rangers, continuing one of the best stretches we’ve seen from a Blue Jays starter in years, and he’s doing it without the velocity we spent all spring talking about. It brings back that moment on March 13 in Lakeland, Fla., when Francis was staring down a spot in the rotation and that same topic came up again.

“The heater needs to stay in that mid-90s range,” Francis said that day, then he paused, thought and smirked. “Even when it is 92, though, I think it is still sneaky.”

Sneaky? It’s a ghost.

Forget 94-95 mph. Wednesday, Francis’ fastball averaged just 91.4 mph. A week ago, when Francis took yet another no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Mets, it averaged only 90.8 mph.

“It’s all about location. It’s like the old days. I’m an old soul,” Francis said. “If this is where I’m going to be, I’ll learn how to pitch with it, but it’s going to be a goal coming into next offseason to throw harder. It’s not something I’m going to stress over.”

These aren’t supposed to be the numbers that Francis succeeds with, but he’s not the same pitcher who competed for a rotation job, eventually won it and quickly lost it. He’s developed a splitter seemingly overnight and traded some of his curveballs for sliders. All of this success belongs to Francis alone, but it’s clear that Pete Walker and the Blue Jays’ pitching staff have uncorked something, too. The March version of Francis might be getting rocked throwing 91 mph, but this version has a 1.95 ERA over 60 innings since returning to the rotation in late July and has flirted with history twice.

“Boy, I tell you. Look at his numbers. They’re pretty amazing, aren’t they?” said Rangers manager Bruce Bochy. “To be that close to having two no-hitters. … He’s just a pitcher, man. He has good command of the fastball and he’s not a guy out there trying to power his way through hitters. He’s got a good changeup, split, curveball to go with it, and obviously there’s something to that fastball that hitters aren’t seeing well. He pitches on all four quadrants, so I’m amazed. Looking at his recent starts and how good his numbers are, it’s pretty impressive.”

This is where Francis’ short-term success starts to look down the road at 2025, ’26 and beyond. Baseball is full of pitchers who launched themselves to the highest level by succeeding one way. Those who stick around are the ones who can fail, regroup, then find a second and third way to beat you.

This is mental as much as it is physical for Francis. He points back to 2020, when he truly began to dive into meditation and being present. Back in the Minors, if Francis was hit early, he may have unraveled completely. Now, he’s showing an uncanny ability to step back, take a breath and come back stronger.

“He puts himself in the right mindset to do what he does,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “It’s been really nice to watch him over the past month and a half to be in those situations, get out of those situations, limit damage in some situations. That’s just the growth of a starting pitcher. He doesn’t panic. He understands how to be present in every situation. It’s a cool meeting point of stuff and mentality. That’s what you’re seeing.”

There’s been something so refreshing about this run from Francis. This season has been thin on pleasant surprises for the Blue Jays, but here’s Francis, giving the organization something to believe and invest in for next season.

Next year, he’ll walk into Dunedin, Fla., as a starting pitcher, period. There will be no conversation about his role and no need to stress over the radar gun. What’s clear now is that Francis has known his own game best all along, because of course he has. Sometimes, it’s obvious and in your face.

Sometimes, it’s sneaky.