12 bold predictions for Tuesday's Trade Deadline

Prior to the flurry of activity over the past few days, I had planned to use this Trade Deadline piece to predict Jazz Chisholm Jr. to the Yankees, Isaac Paredes to the Cubs, Carlos Estévez to the Phillies, Zach Eflin and Seranthony Domínguez to the Orioles, Jason Adam to the Padres, Randy Arozarena and Yimi García to the Mariners, A.J. Puk to the D-backs, Jesse Winker and Ryne Stanek to the Mets, Danny Jansen and James Paxton to the Red Sox and Nick Mears to the Brewers.

You’ll just have to take my word for it.

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But because certain general managers had to selfishly jump the gun and improve their teams in the days before the Deadline, I am left to start from scratch with a new batch of predictions that I am certain will be every bit as accurate.*

* - Nah, nope.

Here we go!

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will go to the Mariners

Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has to be feeling the heat after this team, with an elite rotation, squandered a 10-game division lead faster than you can say, “We’re going to win 54% of the time.” You just know that if Dealin’ Dipoto is gonna go down, he’s gonna go down swapping!

Arozarena is aboard, but -- with Julio Rodríguez banged up and underperforming and multiple 33-year-olds named Mitch (Garver and Haniger) batting around .200 -- the Mariners STILL sorely need offense. They made the Arozarena deal without dealing catching prospect Harry Ford or any of their coveted middle-infield prospects (Cole Young, Colt Emerson and Felnin Celesten). They can swing a Guerrero deal.

The Blue Jays have been adamant publicly about not dealing Guerrero and signaling a rebuild, but they haven’t been able to win with him, and their outlook for 2025 (his last year of control) looks dim. A Deadline short on impact bats is a good time for them to come to their senses and get value back for Vladdy Jr.

The Dodgers will land Garrett Crochet and Lane Thomas

Already obviously in “World Series or bust” mode, the Dodgers are perfectly positioned to not only meet Crochet’s extension demands but schedule him down the stretch so that his innings are manageable going into what matters most to them -- October. Catcher/first baseman Dalton Rushing or outfielder Josue De Paula could be a front-line piece in a Crochet trade, and the Dodgers also have plenty of pitching in their pipeline to craft a compelling package for the South Side Sellers.

As for the outfield, with Los Angeles' primary prospect package used in a potential Crochet deal, the Dodgers will do a lesser-but-still-important deal for the Nationals’ Thomas, who would bring good contact and speed. Thomas entered the week with a 24-game on-base streak.

Tarik Skubal is not going anywhere

Sorry. Next.

But Blake Snell is going to the Astros

You want to reach the ALCS an eighth straight year? Go big or go home, ‘Stros!

It has become clear that maintaining their standard of excellence in 2025 and beyond is going to be a real challenge for the Astros, who have Alex Bregman, Ryan Pressly and Justin Verlander approaching free agency, plus Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker set to get more expensive. The Snell acquisition will be one last go-for-it-with-gusto Deadline move to try to push this team past the Mariners for good in the AL West standings and advance through October yet again.

Snell’s 2025 player option really complicates the trade equation. Would Houston move top prospect Jacob Melton in this deal? Could it involve Spencer Arrighetti? I have no idea. I just know it would be more fun if it did involve Arrighetti and the Giants’ pitching coach was still Dave Righetti.

The Yankees will land Luis Rengifo and Tanner Scott

The Yanks got all that Jazz, but they still need another bat -- preferably one who can help them at the black hole that has been third base. The switch-hitting Rengifo, a free agent after next season, could help this lineup in a lot of ways -- and help steer the Yankees out of their summer rut.

And the Yankees will definitely add a reliever, perhaps two. Miami’s Scott checks every box -- a lefty who misses bats and delivers with the game on the line. He’ll also be crazy expensive in this market. The Yankees already made one big deal with the Marlins. Predicting them to outbid the market and make another is probably overly ambitious. But “The Yankees will trade for Scott Alexander” did not sound interesting enough to accompany the headline to this piece, so here you go.

The Guardians will bring in Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham

Though he might not have the cachet of teammate Crochet, Fedde is the better bet to give you length down the stretch. And the Guardians, who have been banged up in their rotation all year and overly reliant on their terrific bullpen, could sure use some of that. Fedde is a great story as a guy who went over to Korea and came back truly knowing how to command a game, as Cleveland has seen in a couple fruitless efforts against him this season. He’d also be affordably under their control for 2025. They like that.

Pham, meanwhile, is purely a rental, which keeps his trade price tag in check. He brings a right-handed stick with a smart approach, some thump and hustle to a lineup that could not only use a jolt with multiple offensive All-Stars enduring a midseason slump, but could use another outfield and DH option.

Editor's note*:* In a three-way trade, Fedde and Tommy Pham are headed to the Cardinals, Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech are going to the Dodgers and the White Sox are netting infielder Miguel Vargas and prospects in the deal, a source told MLB.com.

The Orioles will trade for Jack Flaherty. Again. And get Andrew Chafin, too.

Acquiring Eflin, who is under control through 2025, gives the O’s the flexibility to go short term should they add another starter, as I suspect they will. It didn’t work with Flaherty last summer, but that doesn’t mean it won’t work now that he’s reasserted himself with the Tigers (2.95 ERA, 143 ERA+). Corbin Burnes, Flaherty, Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez in the playoff rotation, bolstered by that dynamic offense? Sounds good to me! And it should go without saying that the Orioles have the trade capital to beat out the opposition in the Flaherty sweepstakes.

(But don’t worry, should Baltimore instead land a certain White Sox starter, I’ll have a “Fedde-ral Hill” pun waiting in the wings.)

That would still leave the O’s in need of left-handed relief, and -- though the Tigers could provide that in the long-term form of Tyler Holton -- Detroit is more likely to move the veteran Chafin in the midst of a bounceback year. He has a $6.5 million team option for 2025.

Yusei Kikuchi will go to the Cardinals

Kikuchi is a starting pitcher entering his mid-30s, so he belongs on the Cardinals.

Cal Quantrill will go to the Twins

The Twins need a starter but probably won’t break the bank. The Rockies’ Quantrill is a starter who won’t break the bank. Plus, I just looked this up, and -- of the teams against whom Quantrill has pitched at least 50 innings in his career -- the Twins are the one he’s had the most success against (6-0, 2.90 ERA in 12 appearances). So they’ve seen him be good.

Take notes, kids. This is how you predict stuff.

There will be more reliever trades that make you go, “Whoa!”

The Royals got a “Whoa!” out of me when they gave up their No. 2 prospect -- third baseman Cayden Wallace -- and the 39th overall pick in this year’s Draft for reliever Hunter Harvey. The Padres also earned a “Whoa!” when they dealt their Nos. 3 (Dylan Lesko), 8 (Homer Bush Jr.) and 12 (J.D. Gonzalez) prospects in exchange for Adam.

So while it’s impossible to guess who will go where when a ton of relief arms are flying around in the next couple days, this market has a clear trend. When Federal Reserve officials meet this week to discuss potential interest rate cuts in light of the improving inflation environment in the United States, they will have to take the rising cost of relievers into account.

A bunch of other stuff will happen!

If I didn’t list a trade involving your favorite team, it’s not because I don’t think they will be active. It’s because a human being can only be wrong so many times in one sitting without it affecting his psyche. I’m not that much of a masochist.

But here’s one last one …

At 6:01 p.m. ET on Tuesday, someone will sign Rich Hill.

It will be whichever team came out of the Deadline most frustrated about its (lack of) ability to round out its rotation. And when Hill debuts for that team (OK, OK, I’ll bite and just guess his hometown Red Sox), there will once again be a Major Leaguer older than me! Thank you for your service, Rich.