Perfect thief: This star could make SB history

Is there any team more entertaining than the Blue Jays? They’ve mashed all year, they’re full of fresh, young stars who came up together and they just wrapped a thrilling first homestand back in Canada, with 15,000 fans at Rogers Centre sounding like 50,000.

Fans love the long ball, and Toronto is all about the homers, standing just two dingers shy of the Giants for the MLB lead. Bo Bichette (20 homers) is part of that charge, but there’s another reason to watch the All-Star shortstop: He’s evolved into a master thief.

Bichette has tiptoed off the base, eyes honed in on the pitcher, and then taken off for a steal 17 times. He has yet to be caught once. Bichette is one of four players who had stolen at least 10 bases without being caught (Gregory Polanco 13-for-13, Amed Rosario 12-for-12, Nicky Lopez 10-for-10), but Bichette’s head start makes him the most likely to join a club that you might not have had any idea was this small:

AL/NL players with 20+ steals, 100% success rate
_Stat available back to 1951_
1) Chase Utley (2009): 23-for-23
2) Alcides Escobar (2013): 22-for-22
3T) Quentin Berry (2012): 21-for-21
3T) Kevin McReynolds (1988): 21-for-21
5) Paul Molitor (1994): 20-for-20

Bo Bichette (2021): 17-for-17

There was a two-decades-plus gap in caught stealing data in the National League from the 1920s through 1950, which keeps us from going back further. Still, that’s a surprisingly small list for 70 years worth of baseball, and as the sport averages fewer steals per game than at any time since the mid-1960s, Bichette’s run at history is a welcome palette cleanser amid all the homers and strikeouts. Every time on base gives him another crack at this milestone, and every time he takes off means his streak is on the line.

Bichette is speedy, but he's maybe not the burner you’d pick to challenge 20-for-20. He’s averaged a sprint speed of 28.1 feet per second on the basepaths, which puts him well above the MLB average (27.0 ft/sec) but “only” in the 77th percentile for speed among all big leaguers. Among shortstops, he’s tied for 18th fastest. Bichette was also an efficient, but certainly not perfect, base thief before this year, even going back to the Minors:

2016 (GCL Blue Jays): 3-for-3, 100%
2017 (Class A Dunedin, Lansing): 22-for-29, 76%
2018 (Double-A New Hampshire): 32-for-43, 74%
2019 (Class A Dunedin, Triple-A Buffalo, Toronto): 20-for-29, 69%
2020 (Toronto): 4-for-5, 80%
2021 (Toronto): 17-for-17, 100%

Bichette actually racked up more caught stealings (four) than successful steals (three) back in Spring Training, so he didn’t even enter this season on a roll. What’s changed? Seventeen perfect attempts isn’t much of a sample from which to draw conclusions, and the data doesn’t tell a clear-cut story, either. Seven of Bichette’s thefts came on the first pitch of an at-bat, but he also has five steals on the third pitch and one apiece on the fourth, fifth and seventh pitches. Per Statcast, Bichette’s secondary leads have ranged from as close as 18 feet off first base (shorter than the MLB average of 22 feet on successful steals) …

… to this 36-foot secondary lead, when he caught the A’s sleeping and got a running start towards third.

You’ll notice that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is at the plate in that first video, and maybe you’d surmise that Guerrero’s influence distracts pitchers from Bichette on the bases. But Guerrero has only been at the plate for seven of Bichette’s steals, followed by Teoscar Hernández (five plate appearances), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (three), George Springer (one) and Randal Grichuk (one).

The secret here might just be Bichette picking his spots well and surprising the defense. Eight of his first 17 steals came without a throw, with his daring dashes seemingly freezing the catcher on plays like this one in Kansas City:

… and this one in Boston. Bichette swiped third each time with runners on first and second and two outs in the inning.

But let’s be honest -- a streak like this requires some luck, too. Bichette could slide just a little too late next time on a play like this one, and his momentum would take his hand off the bag for an out.

But in the meantime, Bichette remains perfect. Advancing 17 times without consequences has helped Bichette enter Tuesday with 87 runs scored (tying him with Guerrero for the MLB lead), and it gives us yet another reason to watch the Blue Jays down the stretch. Bichette’s at-bats were already appointment television; now his times on base are must-watch events, too.