3 key storylines for Toronto this spring

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Baseball is back.

It’s been long and slow, filled with more frustration than jubilation for Blue Jays fans, but as players make the short walk from the parking lot to the clubhouse in Dunedin, Fla., on Thursday morning, they’ll bring the hope of a new season with them.

So much still feels unsettled. There are still big-name free agents available, including Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman, and the Blue Jays' roster feels like it's still one bat away from fitting perfectly together.

Here are the big storylines as camp opens:

Who is Alek Manoah?

Everybody loves a comeback story and Manoah is perfectly cast to star in this movie. After skyrocketing to stardom in 2021-22, Manoah plummeted back to earth last season, posting a 5.87 ERA that earned him two demotions to Triple-A Buffalo. There’s not just a pitcher and a person involved here, but a relationship with the organization.

Which state are all three of those in? That’s question one for the early part of spring camp.

To expect a sudden renaissance is lofty, but the Blue Jays don’t need Manoah to be the ace. At this point, he’s competing for the No. 5 job and will be handed the inside track. If he’s able to give the Blue Jays consistent innings and lower his walk rate, that’s enough of a step in the right direction to keep him on the Opening Day roster. If things go sideways, that’s where this gets interesting -- and uncomfortable.

The Blue Jays addressed their rotation depth by adding Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodriguez on a five-year, $32 million deal, but given that Rodriguez hasn’t pitched professionally since the World Baseball Classic nearly a year ago, he’ll need time. Bowden Francis is another option that you’ll start to hear more about this spring, and No. 1 prospect Ricky Tiedemann should kick the door down soon, but if Manoah can make this work, everything makes more sense.

Manoah’s 2023 season was a mess, period. Now, he has a shot to rewrite the narrative.

All eyes on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

There will be one million words written this spring about Guerrero getting in better shape and making a swing change. Those two things will buoy hopes that Guerrero is about to rediscover his 2021 form, and while they’re very encouraging, it’s all Spring Training talk until we see it lead to actual results -- not just in March, but throughout a long season as the game of adjustments goes back and forth.

When it comes to Vladdy, the simpler the better. The past two seasons have cast doubts on Guerrero, who has looked more like a “very good” hitter instead of the generational talent he flashed in 2021, but his natural gifts have not disappeared.

It’s all in there. Guerrero can do things that few others can, but swing decisions and an inconsistent approach have undercut those gifts at times.

Even with Bo Bichette emerging as this team’s heartbeat and the face of the franchise, there’s just something about Guerrero that changes the entire identity of this team when he’s right. Picture Guerrero, stomping off the field after a walk-off win at home, shouting “This is my house!” to the roaring crowd. That’s the Guerrero the Blue Jays need.

Who wants to be a hero?

The Blue Jays are betting on internal improvements to do the heavy lifting here. Whether that’s wise is a conversation we’ll have over the next nine months, but if that’s how this organization is going to approach the 2024 season, there needs to be hope to point to.

Toronto’s prospects will be headlined in camp by Tiedemann, one of the best young left-handers on the planet who has ace-level potential but needs to display that over a full, healthy season. Behind Tiedemann comes a landslide of position players led by Orelvis Martinez (No. 2), Addison Barger (No. 5), Leo Jimenez (No. 6), Alan Roden (No. 7), Spencer Horwitz (No. 16), Damiano Palmegiani (No. 18) and others.

In the simplest terms, the Blue Jays need another Davis Schneider to emerge from this group, a player who not only contributes at the plate, but energizes the team around them.

If there’s a position player to dream on, it’s Martinez, the club’s No. 2 prospect who was recently named MLB Pipeline’s No. 89 prospect overall. Martinez is not a strong defender on the infield and strikeouts have been a major issue for him at times, but his power is special and this team needs it. It would be very surprising to see him push for a roster spot out of camp, but if he starts hot in Triple-A, he could force the Blue Jays into a very interesting decision.