How Blue Jays' rotation has evolved entering 2nd half

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- There’s so rarely too much of a good thing in baseball.

This is why you’ll hear all 30 general managers, at some point each year, say that you can never have enough starting pitching. Even when the Blue Jays got the good news that Hyun Jin Ryu was ready for Triple-A, putting him on the doorstep of an MLB return right after Alek Manoah completed his own comeback, bad news came knocking just 24 hours later.

Kevin Gausman, who felt some left side discomfort in his last outing, is still feeling that and was scratched from his start Saturday against the D-backs. An MRI showed no concerns, so you can exhale knowing that this is just a matter of soreness for Gausman, but the brief scare showed just how fragile a team’s depth can be, even when it finally feels like it’s headed in the right direction.

Gausman could slot into Tuesday’s game against the Padres, or the Blue Jays could choose to use upcoming off-days and rest him longer, but regardless, you’re looking at a rotation that has some moving pieces now. Ideally, that’s a good thing, leaving the Blue Jays with a wealth of MLB-ready rotation options, but life moves quickly in the big leagues.

Setting a new order

José Berríos got the nod coming out of the break, and he’s been fantastic this season, pitching to a 3.41 ERA and returning to the model of consistency he was before a turbulent 2022 season. The original schedule had him followed by Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt then Manoah, but of course that’s changed already.

“We’re taking advantage of the off time for some guys and also trying to match up with who we’re playing a little bit, too,” manager John Schneider said. “We discussed it with those guys and discussed it with Pete [Walker]. I think we all landed in the same spot. This gives us different looks this series with a couple of righties and a lefty, and you can’t ignore how José is pitching, too. It’s about matchups and rest, then we’ll go from there.”

Assuming Gausman just needs a few days here, this brings us back to the two biggest variables in the group, pals Manoah and Ryu.

Manoah's encouraging return

Manoah’s start against the Tigers went very well, but not every team is the Tigers. He’ll be tested next time out against the Padres, and with a tough schedule down the stretch, it won’t get any easier from there.

“We’ve been talking about the pace of his delivery, and it’s exactly where it should be right now,” Schneider said. “[It was] in Detroit, too. We’re just making sure that it’s staying right there. It’s amazing what a little time away can do for you.”

Ryu's return on horizon

After pitching Saturday with Triple-A Buffalo, Ryu will still need some more time in the Minor Leagues to build up his pitch count and put the finishing touches on his pitches. There’s nothing simple about returning from Tommy John surgery, and one of the final pieces is typically one’s feel for offspeed pitches, which Ryu relies on heavily.

Schneider believes Ryu will need at least a couple of Triple-A outings, and he would love to see him built up to a full workload before a return is considered.

“That would be ideal,” Schneider said. “Just in talking with him, and at this time of the year, you want everyone to come in and you know what you’re going to get. His track record speaks for itself and we trust him, but at the same time, you want to make sure he’s ready to go full boat the first time.”

What happens, then, if the Blue Jays find themselves with six healthy starters in two weeks?

“You can kind of work backwards from where we were a month and a half ago,” Schneider said. “If you have six healthy guys that are performing well, you can use that to your advantage a time or two through the rotation and give your guys a breather. You go from one extreme to the other, where it’s a good problem to have.”

The reality is that Gausman, Bassitt and Berríos have carried extremely heavy loads this season, rarely getting an extra day of rest as the Blue Jays tried to make a four-man rotation work with a bullpen day wedged in.

“Off the top, you’re looking to get guys back to neutral in terms of workload and rest, then go from there,” Schneider said.

But like they always say in baseball, these things tend to take care of themselves.