TB-TOR position-by-position breakdown

As American League East foes since 1998, the Blue Jays and Rays have played dozens of three-game series against each other. But never one quite like this.

The best-of-three Wild Card Series takes place today through Thursday at Tropicana Field, where the No. 1-seed Rays hope to take advantage of their home turf against the No. 8-seed Blue Jays. The winner will move on to the AL Division Series, to be held in San Diego’s Petco Park.

Game	Date	Result	Highlights
Gm 1	Sept. 29	TB 3, TOR 1	Watch
Gm 2	Sept. 30	TB 8, TOR 2	Watch

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Coming off their first AL East title since 2010, the Rays have shown they have the ingredients to advance. But do the young Blue Jays, who are in the postseason for the first time since 2016, have what it takes to pull off the upset?

The Rays took the season series, 6-4, but the Blue Jays outscored them, 48-44. Let’s look at these clubs position by position to get a sense of how they’ll stack up on the Wild Card Series stage.

Catcher
Both clubs rank near the bottom of the AL in wins above replacement at the catching position this season. Toronto’s primary catcher, Danny Jansen (.183/.313/.358), and Tampa Bay’s primary catcher, Mike Zunino (.147/.238/.360), have not performed at the plate. But the Blue Jays’ recent callup of Alejandro Kirk, who has instantly intrigued with his build (5-foot-8, 265 pounds) and his swing (.983 OPS in 25 plate appearances), gives them the edge.

Advantage: Blue Jays

First base
The big Vladimir Guerrero Jr. breakout so many of us are anticipating hasn’t come to pass yet. His career adjusted OPS+ -- with more than 700 plate appearances -- is just 8% better than the league average. But the Rays’ struggles to find thump from this position (Ji-Man Choi had a .741 OPS before missing the last two weeks of the year with a hamstring issue, and Nate Lowe has put up similar numbers in his place) have us leaning toward Vladito here.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Second base
The 25-year-old Cavan Biggio’s slash (.250/.375/.432) is Toronto’s main option here, though veterans Jonathan Villar and Joe Panik can also man the spot if manager Charlie Montoyo opts to use the versatile Biggio in the outfield or at third. Whatever the Blue Jays’ alignment, the Rays’ Brandon Lowe, who can also play the outfield (leaving second base open for Joey Wendle), has been one of the more valuable players in the league this year, with a .269/.362/.554 slash as well as impact defense.

Advantage: Rays

Shortstop
This is a showcase of two of the better young shortstops in the sport. Toronto’s Bo Bichette recently returned from a right knee sprain and has been an extra-base hit machine in his brief time in the big leagues (.301/.328/.512 slash this year), and Tampa Bay’s Willy Adames has taken major steps forward both offensively (.259/.332/.481) and defensively. It’s a toss-up, but because Adames has stepped up on this stage before (don’t forget this gem from last year’s Division Series), he gets the nod.

Slight advantage: Rays

Third base
The Rays hope to have Yandy Díaz (hamstring) back in time for the Wild Card Series, which would be a big boost for the offense. He has a .307/.428/.386 slash and homered twice in last year’s Wild Card Game. If not, Wendle is a viable replacement. With Guerrero having moved across the diamond, the Blue Jays have primarily used veteran Travis Shaw here, and he’s responded with essentially league average offense. Biggio can also play here. The Jays rank last in the AL in WAR from third base.

Advantage: Rays

Left field
A Grade 2 oblique strain has sidelined one of the Rays’ best players, Austin Meadows, and created more playing time for 25-year-old Randy Arozarena, who has delivered an impressive .281/.382/.651 slash in 68 plate appearances. The larger sample size, however, belongs to Toronto’s 26-year-old Lourdes Gurriel Jr. He has been steady the past two seasons, with a combined .284/.331/.525 slash and double-digit homers each year.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Center field
In Kevin Kiermaier and Manuel Margot, the Rays have two center fielders who can go get it (Kiermaier was tied for second in outfield outs above average), though neither swings a plus bat. Toronto got slightly more offense from Randal Grichuk (.273/.312/.481 slash) but he doesn’t rate as strongly on the defensive side. Given the importance of defense in this environment, the Rays have the edge.

Slight advantage: Rays

Right field
Others in their lineup have big-league DNA and more famous names, but Teoscar Hernández (.289/.340/.579 slash, 16 homers) has been the Blue Jays’ best player this year, and he recently returned from a rib injury. The Rays have been known to make a lot of wily moves, but an offseason trade for Hunter Renfroe (.645 OPS) hasn’t worked out as well as they had hoped.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Designated hitter
The Blue Jays rotate their position players in and out of this spot, Guerrero and Rowdy Tellez have seen the most at-bats, but Tellez will likely miss this series with a knee injury. The Rays primarily use Yoshi Tsutsugo here, and lately they’ve given him opportunities to lead off. Overall, he has a .197/.314/.395 slash in his first season in the States. Either team’s options are about even, however, Toronto can leverage its infield depth to put Guerrero confidently at DH, which gives them the slight edge.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Rotation
Toronto’s offseason signing of Hyun Jin Ryu (2.69 ERA in 12 starts) and midseason trade for Taijuan Walker (1.37 ERA in six starts after arriving in Toronto) brought credibility to the pitching plan, and Matt Shoemaker is capable of giving them quality innings. The Rays counter with Blake Snell (3.24 ERA in 11 starts), Tyler Glasnow (4.08 ERA in 11 starts) and Charlie Morton (4.74 ERA in nine starts). In a down year for Morton, it’s a tough call, but Snell and Glasnow both average 95 mph or faster with their fastballs, and that could be a matchup issue for a Toronto team that has struggled against such heat (.278 SLG against).

Slight advantage: Rays

Bullpen
Both of these ‘pens have had to overcome some key injuries (the Rays are without Jose Alvarado, Colin Poche and Chaz Roe, and the Blue Jays lost closer Ken Giles to Tommy John). Toronto’s bullpen put up an ERA over 6 in September after a strong start to the season, but Anthony Bass, Rafael Dolis and A.J. Cole have proven to be late-inning assets, and hard-throwing youngster Nate Pearson (who hit 101.5 mph the other day) could be an important X-factor. The Rays, with arms aplenty, had the AL’s best relief ERA in the final month (2.31) and got closer Nick Anderson and right-hander Oliver Drake back from injury. Because Tampa Bay was clicking in the late innings late in the year, the Rays get the nod.

Advantage: Rays

Prediction: This matchup is an excellent example of how much the defining line between a top and bottom seed can be blurred in this tournament, especially when there is so much baked-in knowledge of each other from regular-season division play. The Rays were, on measure, the clearly superior team in the regular season (the Blue Jays had a negative run differential) but will have to neutralize a Toronto lineup that scored five or more runs in more than half of its games.

Ultimately, the Rays are a deserving favorite, with a deep pitching staff and recent playoff experience. They are our pick to win. But it will take the full three games against a Toronto team that won’t go down easily.