Answering your Blue Jays Q's about Vlad Jr., Rodríguez, 'pen and more

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

We’ve finally reached the point of the winter when the reality of a new season creeps in. February is right there, holding the hope that another Spring Training always brings.

The Blue Jays still have work to do after agreeing to a deal with Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodríguez, who brings some valuable intrigue and upside to the organization. This isn’t the lineup Toronto will enter the season with -- at least, it shouldn’t be -- but the clock is ticking on free agency.

Here’s what was on your mind this week:

Last year, it was mentioned more than once that Vladdy had “too much going on in his head” at the plate, and his approach was definitely all over the map. Any thoughts on what they are doing with Vlad this year to get more success? -- Zinny K.

This is about simplifying, not adding or diversifying.

There were a lot of voices in Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s ear in 2023, from both inside and outside the organization. Guerrero is at his best when he is natural and relaxed at the plate, approaching at-bats with some level of joy instead of 95 thoughts. This was, not coincidentally, the version of him that won the 2023 Home Run Derby. Coaching is still crucial to his success, but Guerrero needs to rediscover the freedom and aggression that made him so special in ‘21 and as a prospect.

I’m predicting that Spring Training will bring 100 stories about swing changes, but I’ll be very hesitant to buy into that narrative until it leads to success in the regular season. Let’s see how pitchers counter, first. Guerrero’s 2024 success will be more about approach.

What role would Yariel Rodríguez slide into? -- @BlueJaysDomain

I’d expect Toronto to begin this process on a patient path, building Rodríguez up as a starter after a year away from pitching competitively. This could include a swingman role or even seasoning in Triple-A, but if the Blue Jays lose a starter, Rodríguez will need to be ready to contribute. Consider him a starter in 2025 and beyond, but ‘24 could go in so many different directions.

He’s one of the three most interesting stories in camp now. On a roster that’s fairly set, beyond the infield depth group, Rodríguez is the wild card.

If the Jays underachieve this season, is it time to blow up the core, rebuild the system, and try again in four to six years? -- Ryan O.

It’s all about windows.

If 2024 doesn’t go as planned, the Blue Jays will be staring at the potential final year of Guerrero and Bo Bichette. Danny Jansen will be a free agent. George Springer and Kevin Gausman will have two years left. Chris Bassitt will have one. The list goes on.

This isn’t doomsday planning, but instead the reality of how these windows work. The Blue Jays have a pivot point following 2024. This highway has an off ramp, if they want to turn the wheel ...

What are your thoughts on a Matt Chapman reunion? -- @_sports_genius

The contract would need to come in below public projections for the Blue Jays to be comfortable, but every player can be a good deal at the right price. Chapman was well liked in the clubhouse, and we all know how great a defender he is, but the bat needs to be better. Can Toronto bottle his April and get more out of Chapman, or were the final months of 2023 a warning? Given the risk, Chapman’s term should matter more than the money to the Blue Jays.

How is their bullpen shaping up? Any prospects showing as favorites or dark horses to crack Opening Day? -- @LangilleELi

My projection today would be: Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Yimi García, Tim Mayza, Chad Green, Génesis Cabrera, Trevor Richards and one open spot. Rodríguez, of course, is the biggest variable in all of this, as the Blue Jays could debut him in a long relief role. There is a fringe group, including Nate Pearson, and a prospect group, notably Connor Cooke, but a multi-inning arm in the ‘pen would make more sense early in the year. I also expect Bowden Francis to play a far bigger role than most expect this year. He’s a legitimate big leaguer.

Could you see the Blue Jays staying with cheaper, shorter contracts this year and waiting for next year’s free agent class for longer-term deals? -- @adambl555

Next year’s free-agent class is stacked. Some will sign before they reach the market, but regardless, it will offer more upside than this year’s when it comes to position players.

That decision would be more philosophical for the Blue Jays than anything. Are they going to aggressively expand this window beyond the 2025 season, which could be Guerrero and Bichette’s last in Toronto? I wouldn’t tie this offseason and the next together too closely. This might be the widest this window ever opens.