It's all about 2025 for Blue Jays in second half

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- This year, Blue Jays fans needed the All-Star break as much as the players did.

It’s been a frustrating season, both in ways that were expected and ways that weren’t. The Blue Jays (44-52) are 9 1/2 games back of the final American League Wild Card spot and are likely headed toward selling at the July 30 Trade Deadline.

With 66 games remaining, here’s where Toronto stands and what comes next:

One second-half goal: Pick a lane for 2025
If Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette were in the final year of team control this season instead of next, you’d be staring at a potential fire sale. Even the shelves and display cases would have price tags on them.

This is all about the 2025 season, though, and with the core of this veteran group still in town next year, the Blue Jays will try to run it back one more time. The second half needs to bring some internal improvements -- a term that still might send a chill up your spine after the club counted on that over the winter -- and the candidates are obvious.

Bichette has struggled and battled lower-body injuries again. Daulton Varsho has been an absolutely brilliant defender, but he’s batting .202 with a .693 OPS. Alejandro Kirk has looked much better of late, but with Danny Jansen a pending free agent, the Blue Jays need to see that Kirk can hold up as a primary option over a full season.

Then, there’s the prospects. Can Spencer Horwitz win the adjustments game and keep his great season rolling? Can Leo Jiménez (Toronto's No. 5 prospect) make a case for a more permanent job next year? Will the third time be the charm for Addison Barger (No. 6 prospect) after he struggled in his first two big league stints?

It’s all about 2025 from here, and how these questions play out will have a huge impact on how this organization approaches the offseason.

Likely Trade Deadline strategy: Soft sellers
The baseball world knows by now that the Blue Jays will look to trade players on an expiring deal. That list includes Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi García, Jansen, Trevor Richards, Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier.

There are tiers to this, of course, with Kikuchi and García being Toronto's best bets at getting back a legitimate piece for the future. That’s what this should be about, right? You might win the jackpot five years from now by trading for a 17-year-old prospect, but the Blue Jays need meaningful help for their next competitive window beginning in 2025 and beyond.

This conversation would get 100 times more interesting if the team cracks the door open to dealing players under control beyond 2024. Someone like reliever Chad Green could be a very intriguing option, but for now, this organization wants one more shot at making this work, so it would need to be blown away to shed pieces that could help in '25.

Key player: Yariel Rodríguez
Sure, a turnaround from Bichette in 2025 could change everything, but the emergence of Rodríguez is so important to this club’s present and future.

Rodríguez suddenly looks every bit the pitcher the Blue Jays envisioned, with his incredible mound presence matching his talent. Over his past three starts, he’s allowed just three earned runs with 19 strikeouts over 16 2/3 innings. If he’s a legitimate long-term rotation option, that gives the Toronto a starter whose window extends beyond Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman.

This could also save the Blue Jays some cash. With Kikuchi likely gone and Alek Manoah expected to miss part of next season after undergoing right elbow surgery, this organization needs to find more starters. If Toronto can count on Rodríguez to be one of them, that would free up some payroll to instead be spent on bringing the club's lineup back to life.

Prospect to watch: SS Arjun Nimmala (No. 3)
The Blue Jays’ farm system needs some success stories -- fast -- and Nimmala’s timing couldn’t be better. Nimmala started slow this season and was pulled back to the complex, where he spent some time on the development list and playing in the Rookie-level Florida Complex League, but he’s been on fire since returning to Single-A Dunedin.

Looking to 2026 and beyond, the Blue Jays don’t just need players … they need stars. Who will lead the next core? Who is the next Guerrero if Vladdy isn’t here long term? Nimmala has Top 100 Prospect potential, and right now, he’s looking like this organization’s best shot at developing a long-term star.