A guide to Blue Jays' pivotal offseason

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

With the World Series finally wrapped, the Blue Jays can stop watching everyone else have fun.

A crucial offseason lies ahead, one where the Blue Jays face broader philosophical questions about how this organization operates and smaller questions about which pieces fit where.

Free agency might not hold as many answers as the Blue Jays hope, given the thin crop of hitters in a year where they are trying to pivot back in the direction of more offense. The trade market will come into play quickly -- with many of those conversations happening already -- as Toronto works to address multiple holes on its roster and reshape a team that fell short in another crushing Wild Card Series.

Here’s what you need to know:

Who are the free agents?

Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier, Hyun Jin Ryu, Brandon Belt, Jordan Hicks and Whit Merrifield make up Toronto’s free-agent crop, which is a lot of talent to be losing. This is the nature of chasing championships with veteran signings, though, and the Blue Jays need to replace these names quickly.

Reunions don’t feel terribly likely here. Chapman will benefit from a below-average position-player market and is likely to cash in thanks to his excellent defense. Kiermaier’s strong 2023 season and elite glove will land him a multiyear deal, while Hicks and Merrifield should earn plenty of interest elsewhere, too. Keep Ryu’s name in the back of your mind, at least, as the Blue Jays explore options to shore up the No. 5 spot in their rotation amid uncertainties about Alek Manoah’s role in 2024 and beyond.

Will any receive a qualifying offer?

Chapman is expected to receive the qualifying offer, which is $20.325 million this offseason. When that’s offered, Chapman is fully expected to decline before signing a long-term deal elsewhere, which would net the Blue Jays a compensatory pick in the 2024 MLB Draft.

Qualifying offers must be issued by 5 p.m. ET on Monday. Players must accept or decline by 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 14.

Which players have an option?

Merrifield’s $18 million mutual option has already been settled. Both sides declined the option, which leaves Merrifield with a $500,000 buyout and a shot at free agency, where contending teams will line up to court Merrifield as a piece to round out their roster.

Then, we come to Chad Green. On Monday, the Blue Jays picked up Green’s two-year, $21 million option, keeping the valuable right-hander with the club through the end of 2025. The structure of these options was complicated, though, and the Blue Jays took the “Step 3” option.

Step 1: The Blue Jays rejected a three-year, $27 million team option.
Step 2: Green rejected a one-year option at $6.25 million for 2024.
Step 3: The Blue Jays picked up the final potential option for two years and $21 million.

Are there any non-tender candidates?

The Blue Jays have until 8 p.m. ET on Nov. 17 to tender contracts to their players, most of which will be easy decisions.

Adam Cimber, projected by Cot’s Baseball Contracts to earn $3.3 million in arbitration next year, will be a non-tender candidate. Cimber pitched to a 7.40 ERA over 22 appearances and missed much of the season with a right shoulder impingement, eventually rehabbing but never returning. Santiago Espinal could be a candidate, too, but at a projection of $2.75 million, the Blue Jays can still choose to bet on a bounceback from the utility infielder.

Who needs to be added to the 40-man roster for protection?

By 6 p.m. ET on Nov. 14, the Blue Jays need to protect any prospects they don’t want exposed to the Rule 5 Draft by adding them to their 40-man roster.

Among the priorities this year could be the following prospects: LHP Adam Macko (Blue Jays’ No. 22), OF Will Robertson, C/OF Zach Britton, UTIL Rafael Lantigua, RHP Dahian Santos (No. 11), RHP CJ Van Eyk, 1B Rainer Nunez and OF Dasan Brown (No. 29).

While Brown’s elite speed and strong defense make him a deep-cut candidate, Robertson, the 25-year-old outfielder who’s had success in the AFL, and Macko, who still has plenty of upside as a lefty, feel like the top names here.

If the Blue Jays can fill two of their holes internally instead of via free agency, that could save them millions, allowing them to focus their money on landing a star instead of two “good” players. That’s an attractive route for Toronto.

What are the Blue Jays' needs in free agency?

As it stands today, the Blue Jays need a left fielder (with Daulton Varsho moving to center), a third baseman, a first-base bat to replace Belt and another versatile infielder to replace Merrifield (which could come internally). On the pitching side, the Blue Jays need a No. 5 starter and additional depth beyond that.

While Cody Bellinger is the dream fit here, that’s shopping at the very top of the market among players not named Shohei Ohtani. Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson, Jeimer Candelario, Amed Rosario, Tim Anderson and Joey Votto could all fill those positional roles to different extents. We’ll have much more on those options in the coming days and weeks at MLB.com.

Internally, the group of Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, Spencer Horwitz, Alan Roden, Ernie Clement and others will need to account for at least one vacancy, with two sounding even likelier.

Who could the Blue Jays trade?

This is important, given how likely a lean to the trade market feels here.

That same group of players mentioned above will be considered alongside other upper-level talents, like No. 6 prospect Leo Jimenez. The Blue Jays’ Top 30 Prospects isn’t a juggernaut list, which is understandable given the trades in recent years, but they have enough talent at the top end and more than enough high-upside lottery tickets to make deals happen.