What we learned from Blue Jays' first half

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Have you enjoyed your four-day break from the Blue Jays’ rollercoaster?

Toronto’s 50-41 record is built on incredible highs and exasperating lows. It’s all part of the 2023 experience with this club that is capable of so much more in the unofficial second half of the season, which begins Friday when the D-backs come to town.

Inconsistencies have plagued the Blue Jays early, so it’s a question of whether those will continue or if this club can go on a true run. There’s a thin line between the two, but again, the Blue Jays have all of the talent needed, it’s just a matter of pointing that talent in the right direction and “playing in sync,” as manager John Schneider likes to say.

Here’s our midseason report:

What we learned in the first half

Nothing has been easy ... and nothing will be.

Look at the Blue Jays’ roster on paper. This team has all the talent in the world, more than capable of chasing a division crown, but instead finds itself stuck in the same Wild Card race we’ve been talking about since 2020. There’s something to be said about simply reaching the postseason consistently and trying to get hot at the right time, but the Blue Jays need to reach a different level.

The American League East has been a nightmare for the Blue Jays. They’ve gone 7-20, including 0-7 against the Red Sox and 1-5 against the Orioles. That Orioles club, which seems to graduate a new top prospect every week, is only getting scarier. The realities of life in the AL East are not kind, and the Blue Jays are taking the brunt of it.

One hot streak changes everything, though. Remember those 11 consecutive wins in early August that put the 2015 Blue Jays over the top? That will do.

Likely Trade Deadline strategy

There isn’t a traditional “hole” to fill where a star has been lost for the season or fallen dramatically short of expectations. That doesn’t mean the Blue Jays can’t be aggressive and further change the DNA of this roster, but depth tinkering seems likelier.

Rotation depth ranks high, even with the return of Alek Manoah, and Hyun Jin Ryu coming back soon. There will be the usual bullpen tinkering you see from any contender, too, and the Blue Jays could also afford to add a right-handed bat to their bench. This club has rarely used its 26th spot, so there are better ways to complement this roster.

Key player

Manoah. The big man looked great in his return against the Tigers last week, throwing six innings of one-run ball and striking out eight. If he’s back to his old self, that’s the single biggest development of the Blue Jays’ season and puts them back among baseball’s best rotations. If the coming weeks bring more inconsistencies, it gets uncomfortable.

This is why rotation depth remains a Deadline priority, even when the Blue Jays could have six healthy MLB starters by then. Toronto’s depth beyond this group is very thin -- which needs to be priority No. 1 this offseason -- and they have three starters in the top 11 for innings pitched in the American League. If someone needs to take a breath, there needs to be a suitable option behind them.

Prospect to watch

Addison Barger. Granted, No. 4 prospect Orelvis Martinez has turned a disastrous start into an incredible season, but Barger, at No. 6, has a more realistic shot to play big league games down the stretch.

An elbow injury cost Barger nearly two months away from Triple-A Buffalo, and his numbers aren’t there yet, but there’s a reason the Blue Jays gave him such a long look in Spring Training. Not only is Barger one of the club’s top prospects, he’s at the front of the line to play third base next season if Matt Chapman leaves via free agency. The Blue Jays won’t bring him up to sit on the bench, but regardless of where his reps come, this organization needs to properly evaluate Barger heading into a critical offseason.