Lessons from past Blue Jays Deadlines

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Every front office has its history and trends.

They’d all prefer to be shrouded in mystery, their next moves unknown, but the realities of player development, transaction histories and payroll can start to point some arrows in certain directions. The Blue Jays are no different.

Tuesday's Trade Deadline is suddenly on the doorstep and the Blue Jays will need to be active.

The return of Hyun Jin Ryu and some renewed faith in Alek Manoah means that the Blue Jays don’t necessarily need to make a splash in the starting pitching market, but depth moves remain very possible. The Blue Jays are also prioritizing a bat to round out their lineup, ideally one that can hit for power from the right side, and bullpen adds are on the table for every contender.

Looking ahead, here’s what the Blue Jays’ past can teach us about the 2023 Deadline.

MORE THAN 2023?
The Blue Jays are open to rentals. That said, it’s not their style.

Look back through their most recent additions at the Trade Deadline (or near it) and you’ll find names like José Berríos, Whit Merrifield, Ross Stripling, Mitch White, Adam Cimber and Zach Pop. All of these players came with team control beyond that season.

You can even fold in Matt Chapman, who the Blue Jays acquired last year in Spring Training, who had two full years of team control remaining. None of this is by accident. The Blue Jays want to build a roster on their own timeline – which means early – instead of waiting for deadlines and contracts to force their hands in a more limited market.

This can make the Blue Jays a difficult team to forecast at this time of year. We focus so heavily on the rental market, filled with veterans on expiring contracts, but when you expand the market to players with control beyond this season, it’s much more difficult. General manager Ross Atkins has said the club will explore rental options, but that would represent a bit of a break from their typical way of operating.

NOT SHY ABOUT TRADING TOP PROSPECTS
The Blue Jays haven’t shied away from dealing big names in recent years. The previous regime did this in more of a dramatic flurry, making it more of an identity, but this current group has regularly dealt top prospects and first-round picks.

Gunnar Hoglund, a first-round pick in 2021, was dealt a year later to the A’s in that deal to acquire Chapman. Austin Martin, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2020 Draft, was dealt to the Twins along with Simeon Woods Richardson, another top-five prospect, in that Berríos deal. Jordan Groshans, their first-rounder from 2018, went to the Marlins for Zach Pop and Anthony Bass.

This becomes more difficult as the Blue Jays’ system thins out, but these examples are more than enough to suggest this front office will have no hesitation moving boldly with its prospects.

Ricky Tiedemann and Orelvis Martinez top the list of prospects that other organizations would covet, while Brandon Barriera ranks close behind that group as a longer-term project. What the Blue Jays do have in their system is a nice mix of far-off lottery tickets and near-ready MLB talent. If an opposing front office is looking for a player who is ready to make an impact sooner than later, Toronto’s mix of Martinez, Addison Barger, Yosver Zulueta, Otto Lopez, Spencer Horwitz or Davis Schneider represent a strong group at Triple-A Buffalo.

THE ADD-ON PROSPECT
If you asked me for one thing the Blue Jays’ front office does particularly well, it’s this.

Think back to the Randal Grichuk trade in March 2022, when the Blue Jays got back Raimel Tapia… and a young prospect named Adrian Pinto. Think back to the White trade in August 2022, when the Blue Jays acquired White along with a prospect named Alex De Jesus.

Pinto and De Jesus now rank No. 16 and 21 in the Blue Jays’ system, respectively, with De Jesus, in particular, having an excellent season that should earn him a jump up the rankings when we release our midseason update in August.

Sometimes, these moves require taking on a little extra salary to convince the opposing club to include a prospect, but it’s something the Blue Jays have done for years now. When you’re a competitive club that expects to be a “buyer” more often than not, moves like this are incredibly valuable to keep your farm system stocked with young talent.