Blue Jays' bullpen depth about to be tested after latest injury

TORONTO -- Monday brought bad news for the Blue Jays, but this is about more than the bullpen.

An hour before the Blue Jays dropped their opener against the Red Sox, 7-3, Yimi García joined closer Jordan Romano on the IL, and with Erik Swanson still trying to find himself in Triple-A, the Blue Jays are suddenly without their three best relievers entering the season.

Even with the unpredictable nature of bullpens, which can be baseball’s version of picking lottery numbers, the Blue Jays are going through it right now.

Eyes will shift to the ninth inning, as they should, but that isn’t the worry here. Chad Green has a 1.76 ERA, nearly a decade of experience in the big leagues and 13 career saves. It’s remarkable that the Blue Jays can go four men deep on their preseason depth chart for closers and still be in good shape, but that’s the luxury the underrated Green affords them.

The worry lies in the middle innings. While Green or Trevor Richards can be rolled out confidently, the Blue Jays will be forced to go to less-proven options in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings, particularly as they go through a crucial stretch against the Red Sox (twice), Guardians, Yankees, Astros and Mariners. So many of these games could carry weight in a tight AL Wild Card race, and if the past few seasons have taught us anything in Toronto, it’s how valuable tiebreakers can be in the final days of the season.

Toronto’s bullpen ranked eighth in the Majors with a 3.68 ERA and fifth in strikeout rate (9.79 K/9) a year ago, one of this organization’s best groups in years. Well, here’s where the 2024 group ranks through 72 games:

ERA: 4.69 (27th)
K/9: 7.69 (27th)

Worth noting here is that the top six teams in bullpen ERA (Guardians, Dodgers, Orioles, Brewers, Yankees, Braves) all hold postseason spots as of today.

So … who’s left?
Green and Richards feel like the Blue Jays’ comfort relievers at this point. Beyond that, this group desperately needs someone to step up.

This can be the beauty of building a bullpen. You don’t always need to find Mariano Rivera; sometimes, you just need to roll the dice on the right reliever at the right time, get your 1.80 ERA over six weeks and know when to cash out.

Tim Mayza allowed two more runs in Monday’s loss to push his ERA to 6.04, which brings us to the best example of bad timing in this situation. The 32-year-old is coming off a career year with a 1.52 ERA, where he quietly established himself as one of the best lefties in the game, but his velocity has dipped in 2024 and the results have followed.

Nate Pearson (4.23 ERA) feels like the reliever the Blue Jays will need to ask much, much more from. Zach Pop (5.12 ERA) will need to step into bigger innings, too, along with swingman Bowden Francis (6.23 ERA), because the Blue Jays don’t have many other options knocking on the door from Triple-A. Beyond Swanson and Ryan Burr in Triple-A, Hagen Danner is the only other true reliever on the 40-man roster and he’s on the IL, too.

“It’s going to take a combination of everyone with Trevor doing what he did tonight,” manager John Schneider said. “You go down the order a little bit with Chad, Zach and Nate right-handed. It’s going to be everyone, really. We’re carrying four lefties now.”

What this means for everyone else
The Blue Jays are about to ask more from their starters. Yes, even more.

This week alone, both Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman have talked about the “reality” they face as starters right now, with Gausman stating the obvious: if Toronto’s starters don’t pitch well, they probably lose.

This rotation, built on Gausman, Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi -- who allowed an uncharacteristic four homers Monday -- has been excellent of late. It’s a group that deserves a deep postseason run, and with Yariel Rodríguez expected to rejoin it soon, is one baseball’s most talented groups, one through five.

The Blue Jays have already asked so much of this group. Don’t forget that the unpredictability of bullpens can go both ways, dropping pleasant surprises into team’s laps each year, but the Blue Jays will need a few of those to avoid asking even more from their rotation.