Blue Jays close '24 with focus on improvement

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- The Blue Jays’ season ended with a thud, at 74-88 after they lost eight of their last nine games in their first year without meaningful baseball in September since 2019.

This has been a slow decline into the inevitable, and when the rest of the baseball world turns its attention to the postseason this week, the Blue Jays will be taking a long look ahead to 2025.

Fans will want to see something more significant than in past years, especially with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette entering their last year of club control. First, a look back:

Defining moment: The Trade Deadline
The Blue Jays ended July at 51-59, so there was nothing surprising about their sell-off at the Deadline, but it brought some harsh realities to the forefront. They made eight separate deals, trading away not only players on expiring contracts, but players with control left in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Nate Pearson. For an organization that entered the season with World Series aspirations, selling at the Deadline felt like the unofficial end of the season.

What we learned: Internal improvements aren’t enough
After their big swing at Shohei Ohtani last winter, which could have changed every conversation we had about the Blue Jays for the next decade, they chose to bet on themselves and a handful of cost-effective free-agent signings. The way this season played out is a lesson that the Blue Jays will need to be bolder and target a level of upside this offseason, not just players with safe floors. This will be particularly relevant in the bullpen, where a half-dozen moves are needed, and in their lineup.

Best development: Return of the King
Coming into 2024, it was reasonable to wonder whether Guerrero would reach his ‘21 peak again. He was fresh off two seasons that were very good, but well below his high standards, and Vladdy didn’t do much to change that narrative over the first two months of the season. Then, it all changed.

Guerrero finished the season batting .323 with 30 home runs and a .940 OPS, falling just one hit shy of being the second Blue Jays batter in history to hit .300 with 100 RBIs, 30 home runs and 200 hits (Vernon Wells, 2003).

Guerrero’s renaissance has re-established him as one of the brightest stars in baseball, the type of player an entire organization can orbit around. Whether he sticks around beyond 2025 is the million-dollar question -- well, maybe more than a million -- but he’s put any doubts to rest about the caliber of player he can be. This team needs stars, period, and Guerrero is exactly that.

Area for improvement: The bullpen, the bullpen and the bullpen
Everything that could go wrong … did go wrong.

Jordan Romano battled injuries and was ineffective when healthy. Tim Mayza, the formerly reliable lefty, posted an 8.03 ERA before he was eventually designated for assignment. Erik Swanson struggled and was optioned for a period midseason. Yimi García was sharp, but he was dealt at the Deadline. It’s been a mess, highlighting the wrong end of just how volatile bullpens can be from season to season.

This has to be the Blue Jays’ No. 1 priority in the winter. Sure, they’ll benefit from uncovering a gem or two on the waiver wire or through Minor League deals, but they’ll also need to commit some legitimate money to this group.

On the rise: Bowden Francis
Francis opened the season in the rotation, struggled through two starts and slid back to the bullpen, eventually optioned to Triple-A. Nothing pointed towards him being the story of the season, but here we are.

Since rejoining the rotation in late July, Francis posted a 1.80 ERA over 65 innings and took two no-hitters into the ninth inning. He evolved, too, adding a splitter and succeeding even without his best stuff, which makes it easier to believe this is sustainable. It’s been a remarkable run for Francis, whose career is now on a completely different path than it was two months ago.

Team MVP: Guerrero
Who else could it be? Daulton Varsho was one of the best defenders in the sport this season and the veteran starters, namely José Berríos, were strong, but Vladdy is back to his old ways.

There’s a difference between being the best player on the roster and the face of the franchise. Asked Saturday if he could see Vladdy as both in this city, Blue Jays manager John Schneider didn’t hesitate.

“Absolutely, I can,” Schneider said. “He’s at the point performance-wise and with where he’s at personality-wise that he can definitely do that, with how he’s recognized around the game and recognized around this city. I absolutely think that he is talented enough and ready to do that.”