The factors and suitors that could define Snell's free agency

With the 2023 season behind us and the hot stove already burning, we're taking a close look at some of the most prominent players on the free-agent market.

Name: Blake Snell
Position: LHP
Team: San Diego Padres
Age (as of Opening Day 2024): 31
2023 stats: 14-9, 2.25 ERA, 180 IP, 1.189 WHIP, 234 K, 182 ERA+

Blake Snell joined a very exclusive club in 2023, becoming only the seventh pitcher in history to win the Cy Young Award in both leagues.

Gaylord Perry. Pedro Martinez. Randy Johnson. Roger Clemens. Roy Halladay. Max Scherzer. Snell.

That’s it. That’s the list.

Snell’s impressive 2023 season was enough to add him to that accomplished group. He overcame a tough start – he was 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA after his first nine outings – to post a 4 1/2-month run of excellence. From May 25 through the end of the season, Snell went 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA in 23 starts, cruising to an overwhelming win in the NL Cy Young vote.

That turned out to be perfect timing for Snell, who hits the free-agent market for the first time as he enters his age-31 season. With a number of teams looking for a frontline starter to add to their rotation, Snell should be a popular target this winter.

• The latest Snell free agency news and rumors

POTENTIAL SUITORS (listed alphabetically)

ANGELS
The Angels have been searching for starting pitching for several years, and as they face the potential loss of Shohei Ohtani – who won’t pitch in 2024 even if he returns to Anaheim – the club is in need of an ace to lead its rotation. Angels starters ranked 11th in the AL with a 4.47 ERA – and that was with Ohtani, who posted a 3.14 ERA over 132 innings. Snell would immediately step in as the ace for a club that sorely needs one.

DODGERS
The Dodgers’ starters posted a 4.57 ERA in 2023, ranking ninth in the NL. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent, and even if he returns, he’s unlikely to pitch until the second half following shoulder surgery. Walker Buehler will be back after missing all of 2023, but the Dodgers need to rebuild their rotation this offseason, making Snell a strong fit.

GIANTS
The Giants already have an ace in Logan Webb, who finished second to Snell in this year’s NL Cy Young vote. But Webb was one of only two San Francisco pitchers to log more than 150 innings (Alex Cobb threw 151 1/3, though he’ll miss the start of the 2024 season following hip surgery), while Sean Manaea (now a free agent) was the only other to top 100 frames. Snell threw 18 scoreless innings against the Giants last season, so San Francisco knows how good he can be. So does the Giants’ new manager, Bob Melvin, who was Snell’s manager in San Diego the past two years.

MARINERS
Seattle is loaded with starting pitching, so while the need for Snell isn’t apparent, there’s always a possibility that GM Jerry Dipoto trades one of his young starters to acquire a bat, opening a spot for Snell. It should also be noted that Snell is from Seattle, so a move to the Mariners would be a homecoming for the southpaw.

PADRES
With Snell, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo on the free-agent market and Nick Martinez agreeing to a deal with the Reds, the Padres are losing 91 starts and 571 innings from their 2023 staff. San Diego is expected to shed some payroll this offseason, but roughly $30 million of that is attached to Juan Soto, who could be traded. Snell won’t be cheap, but retaining their ace could be a big move for the Padres as they look to bounce back from a disappointing 2023 season.

RED SOX
Boston’s rotation ranked 12th in the AL with a 4.68 ERA, while the 774 1/3 innings its starters pitched were the second fewest in the league. To say the Red Sox need to upgrade their rotation would be a vast understatement, but that was part of the reason Boston brought in Craig Breslow to run its baseball operations department. Snell would give the Red Sox an instant ace, something they’ve been lacking since 2018.

TIGERS
With Miguel Cabrera’s nine-figure contract off the Tigers’ books, some payroll space is freed up to use this offseason. Detroit may also have to endure the loss of its ace after Eduardo Rodriguez opted out of his contract to test the free-agent market. The Tigers have a history of spending – they signed Javier Báez to a big deal just two years ago, though that hasn’t worked out well to this point – so if the Tigers decide to make a big splash, doing so at the top of their rotation would make sense.

SCOUT’S TAKE
“Snell is the quintessential ‘stuff guy.’ He features a plus fastball and some of the best offspeed pitches in the game. He can put hitters away with any combination of the slider, curveball and changeup, all of which have the rare ability to get both chases out of the zone and misses in the zone. This season, he matched a career high in innings pitched and set his high-water mark in strikeouts. Previously thought of as a ‘five and dive’ type pitcher, but this year he was able to make pitches to get himself out of jams and stretch deeper into games. Command is still a lingering issue, as he walks a ton of hitters. This is a concern going forward as he pitches into his 30s and the raw stuff likely tapers down. Coming off his second Cy Young Award, he still has some of the highest ceiling of anybody at the top of a rotation in baseball. His ability to limit damage and self-induced traffic will determine if he continues to be an ace going forward.”

BUYER BEWARE
Snell’s walks are certainly a concern – his 99 free passes in 180 innings last year made him the first Cy Young winner since Early Wynn in 1959 to lead his league in walks – but the bigger red flag might be his career innings pitched. In his two Cy Young seasons, Snell has thrown 180 2/3 and 180 innings, respectively. In his other five full seasons (not counting the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign), Snell’s high was 129 1/3 innings.

FOR COMP'S SAKE
Entering the 2021 season, Carlos Rodón had yet to put it all together despite his immense talent and great stuff. He had topped the 140-inning mark only once during his first five full seasons, constantly battling injuries and inconsistency on an annual basis. Rodón broke out during his age-28 season in 2021, posting a 13-5 record with a 2.37 ERA, albeit in only 24 starts and 132 2/3 innings. He signed a deal with the Giants after being non-tendered by the White Sox, pitching another strong year in 2022 (14-8, 2.88 ERA) in 31 starts and 178 innings. That platform year came at the perfect time: He signed a six-year, $162 million deal with the Yankees last offseason. Snell is a year older than Rodón was as a free agent, though he’s coming off a Cy Young season, which could offset that difference.