Cy sealed? Snell may have wrapped award-worthy season

SAN FRANCISCO -- Nearly six months ago, with expectations for the Padres perhaps as high as they've ever been, Jake Peavy delivered the ceremonial first pitch on Opening Day at Petco Park. The last San Diego pitcher to win an ERA title and a Cy Young Award in 2007, Peavy promptly ceded the mound to Blake Snell …

… who, six months later, seems poised to succeed Peavy in both departments.

The Padres have not lived up to their lofty expectations in 2023. But Snell sure has. He further cemented his Cy Young case on Monday night with six scoreless innings, before the San Diego bullpen faltered late in a 2-1 defeat to the Giants at Oracle Park.

Nonetheless, it was Snell’s third consecutive scoreless start, as he lowered his Major League-best ERA to 2.25. No other qualifier is even close.

Afterward, Snell was quick to lament the team’s failures over his own personal successes.

“The ultimate goal is the playoffs and winning a World Series with these guys, so that definitely sucks,” Snell said. “That's something that, looking back on when we're all old, it's going to be one that stings because I don't know if I'll ever play on a team this talented and this good.”

Indeed, Monday’s loss dropped the Padres’ elimination number to 1. Either a loss Tuesday or wins by the D-backs and Cubs would see San Diego eliminated from playoff contention.

In a season in which so much has gone wrong, Snell has been a bright spot. Suddenly, however, with the team on the verge of elimination, it’s possible Snell has thrown his final pitch as a Padre.

There’s room on the calendar for Snell to make one more start -- a start he’d surely make were the Padres alive in the playoff picture. But after Tuesday’s game, he left open the possibility that he might not start the season finale.

“We’ll figure that out in the next couple days,” Snell said. “Right now, though, I’m really happy with how I’ve finished the season so far.”

If this was the final start of Snell’s remarkable season, there’s a chance it’ll be his last as a Padre, too. At 30, Snell is set to hit the free-agent market, potentially with a second Cy Young Award to his name. He’ll command a significant sum in free agency, and it’s unclear whether the Padres, with a number of holes to address, would allocate so many resources toward re-signing him.

In any case, it’s clearly been on Snell’s mind lately that his time in San Diego might be winding down.

“That kind of fueled me,” he said. “I don’t want to stop pitching. I love being a Padre. I love pitching here. I understood that. It fired me up the last month.”

If this is the end, Snell seems determined to finish his Padres tenure in style. Three weeks ago, he was already the favorite amidst a crowded field of NL Cy Young contenders. Since then, while a handful of those contenders have faltered, Snell has been at his dominant best.

First, Snell dominated the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Next, Snell held the Rockies hitless across seven innings at Petco Park. And for any of the lingering doubters, he tossed six scoreless on 100 pitches in San Francisco, striking out seven while allowing four hits and two walks.

“It’s just the dominance with which he’s gone about it, especially here recently,” said Padres manager Bob Melvin. “... In my opinion, you’re seeing the most dominant pitcher, certainly, in baseball.”

How dominant, exactly?

• In the last 100 years, only Bob Gibson has posted a lower ERA across a 23-start span within a season than Blake Snell’s 1.20 mark since May 25. That came during Gibson’s famed 1968 season, perhaps the greatest pitching season in MLB history.
• Having allowed 19 runs (18 earned) across those 23 starts, Snell is the first pitcher since at least 1901 with fewer than 20 runs allowed and more than 170 strikeouts in a 23-start span.

On Monday, Snell’s dominance wasn’t enough. Giants starter Logan Webb pitched a complete game while allowing one run, essentially outdueling Snell by outlasting him. Webb is a Cy Young candidate, too, perhaps one of Snell’s primary challengers. But even he seems to have an idea of where this race stands.

“It’s kind of hard to try to go pitch to pitch with him, right?” Webb said. “He’s going to win the Cy Young. He’s the best pitcher in baseball. It’s always a pleasure watching him.”