Is '24 Wagner's year? Breaking down closer's HOF hopes

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When Astros closer Billy Wagner was on the mound, it was can’t-miss television. After all, how many 5-foot-10 left-handers threw 100 mph gas, especially in the 1990s?

Wagner, the former Astros closer, was among the elite performers at his position for more than a decade, which is what being a Hall of Famer is all about. Is Wagner a Hall of Famer? He’ll find out Jan. 23 when the results of the balloting of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America are announced, but there’s no doubt he has the credentials.

• Baseball Hall of Fame coverage

Last year, Wagner received 68.1 percent of the vote, which was short of the 75 percent needed to be elected into Cooperstown. Even if he falls short again this time, he’ll have a final year on the ballot and appears to have enough momentum to at least give him hope that his wait could be over.

“I have no clear indication that [2024] will be the year,” Wagner told MLB.com’s Bill Ladson last month. “I talked to people who do some of the projections. They were like, ‘Oh, this could be a nailbiter.’ … It’s unbelievably crazy how hard people are trying to figure out who the guys are [when it comes to getting into the Hall of Fame].

• List of HOF inductions by year

“I’ve done everything I could. If I have to go out there and talk to you about pleading my case, I feel like, really, my numbers weren't good enough. I hope this is the year. … If it’s not, my life is not going to change. I’m still going to be a high school baseball coach.”

Comparing Wagner to his peers only cements his Hall of Fame resume: his 2.31 ERA as a reliever is lower than Trevor Hoffman, Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers and Hoyt Wilhelm -- all of whom are Hall of Famers. Wagner ended his career with an ERA+ of 187. Only Mariano Rivera had a higher number, with a 205 ERA+.

What’s more, his 11.92 strikeouts per nine innings and .187 opponents’ batting average are tops for any pitcher -- starter or reliever -- in AL/NL history in those categories (minimum 900 innings). His 0.997 career WHIP is second-best all-time among all pitchers (min. 900 innings).

Here’s where Wagner ranks among pitchers all-time (minimum 900 innings pitched):

Opponents’ batting average: .187 (1st)
Strikeouts per nine innings: 11.92 (1st)
Hits per nine innings: 5.99 (1st)
WHIP: 0.997 (2nd)
Opponents’ OPS: .558 (2nd, based on STATS rankings of pitchers with complete OPS data)
FIP: 2.46 (5th)

Wagner, a seven-time All-Star, finished his career with 422 saves, which are the sixth-most all-time. In his final season in 2010, he was as good as ever, posting a 1.43 ERA and 37 saves for the Braves. Wagner could have pitched a couple of more years and tried for 500 saves, which would have made him a lock for Cooperstown, but he chose to spend time with family.

Here’s hoping the voters recognize his dominance and the doors of the Hall of Fame welcome him in July.