5 biggest game-turning plays in WS history

What is it with the Dodgers and being involved in the most pivotal plays in World Series history?

It’s not that hard to rank every single play that’s ever happened in the Fall Classic by using Win Probability Added, which looks at the context of each moment in a game -- score, inning, outs, runners on base, etc. -- and allows you to see how likely it is that a team in that situation goes on to win, by looking back at similar situations throughout baseball history.

For example, take one of the most famous plays to ever happen: Bill Mazeroski’s Game 7 walkoff home run in 1960. When he stepped to the plate, in the bottom of the ninth with no outs in a tie game, Pittsburgh’s Win Probability was 63%. (No, not an even 50% despite the tie; as the home team in a walkoff situation, needing just a single run, teams in Pittsburgh’s situation were already slightly more likely to win.) When he hit the home run off of Ralph Terry, the Pirates Win Probability was, of course, 100%, as the game was over. Mazeroski gets credit for the difference of 37%.

It’s one of the most memorable plays in the history of the sport. It also wasn’t the most important plate appearance of that game, given that the Pirates were in a far more dire situation one inning prior, when they were losing by a run with two outs and runners on the corners, a situation in which teams come back to win just 30% of the time. Hal Smith’s go-ahead home run, the most valuable hit in postseason history, pushed them ahead and gave them a 93% Win Probability, earning him a +63%.

Knowing how it all works: What, then are the five biggest game-turning plays in World Series history? The Dodgers, somehow, are involved in four of them – as well as the sixth, when they allowed Charlie Keller’s 1941 Series-turning double.

1. Kirk Gibson, 1988 Game 1, walk-off HR (+87% Win Probability Added)
Final score: Dodgers 5, A’s 4 (box score)
Series result: Dodgers in five

This is one of the most famous plays in baseball history, and for good reason. A hobbled Gibson came off the bench to pinch-hit for the Dodgers in the bottom of the ninth, with two outs and a runner on second. That’s a combination that ends in a win only 13% of the time, and it may have actually been even less because Gibson was injured and Dennis Eckersley was dominant that season.

As every baseball fan knows without even having to look it up, Gibson launched a 3-2 backdoor slider into the right-field bleachers, boosting the Dodgers to a Game 1 win and eventually a World Series title -- their last for more than three decades.

2. Cookie Lavagetto, 1947 Game 4, walk-off 2B (+82% Win Probability Added)
Final score: Dodgers 3, Yankees 2 (box score)
Series result: Yankees in seven

Down, 2-1, in both Game 4 and the 1947 World Series, the Dodgers managed to put runners on first and second with two outs. While what we’re about to say doesn’t really factor into the WPA number, it’s still a fact worth noting: At this point, they were being no-hit by Yankees starter Bill Bevens. (He’d walked 10. We’re not sure which fact is more impressive.)

One out away from immortality, Bevens found his second pitch flying off the right-field wall, losing both the no-hitter and the game. Neither Bevens nor Lavagetto appeared in the Majors again after the Series. It remains one of the most memorable moments in history.

3. Brett Phillips, 2020 Game 4, walk-off … whatever that was (+81% Win Probability Added)
Final score: Rays 8, Dodgers 7 (box score)
Series result: Dodgers in six

As we noted above, being down by a run with runners on first and second and two outs isn’t a guaranteed loss. It’s just a very likely loss. Still, sometimes you get that big hit or walk-off home run or … have your opponent make two fielding mistakes on the same play. A 19% chance isn’t zero, after all.

4. Freddie Freeman, 2024 Game 1, walk-off Grand Slam (+73% Win Probability Added)
Final score: Dodgers 6, Yankees 3 (box score)
Series result: Dodgers in five

As soon as this one hit the seats in right field, the comparisons to Kirk Gibson in 1988 began, and it's not hard to see why, given that it was an injured left-handed Dodger slugger hitting a walk-off shot to the right field bleachers. It's not exactly the same -- it was Gibson's only plate appearance of the Series, for one thing, while Freeman continued to play -- but sometimes the stories write themselves, don't they?

As for the specifics: The Yankees had taken a 2-1 lead on Giancarlo Stanton's sixth-inning home run, but Mookie Betts tied it on a sacrifice fly in the eighth inning, which sent this one to extras. But it wasn't tied when Freeman stepped to the plate. In the top of the 10th, Jazz Chisholm Jr. had manufactured a go-ahead run, thanks to a single, two stolen bases, and Anthony Volpe's groundout.

In the bottom of the 10th, the Dodgers got two on and two outs before left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. entered to face Shohei Ohtani. Cortes, a 2022 All-Star, hadn't pitched in more than a month due to a left elbow issue, but he got Ohtani to foul out on a great catch by left fielder Alex Verdugo. After an intentional walk to Betts, Freeman stepped up with the bases loaded, two outs, and down one in the bottom of the 10th, a situation where the home team makes a comeback just 27% of the time. Yankee fans won't soon forget Aaron Boone's controversial decision to use Cortes in that spot, because on the first pitch, L.A.'s Win Probability became 100%. It was the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history, and Freeman went on to take World Series MVP honors.

5. Terry Pendleton, 1985 Game 2, go-ahead 2B (+69% Win Probability Added)
Final score: Cardinals 4, Royals 2 (box score)
Series result: Royals in seven

The first play on our list that’s not a walk-off, Pendleton’s Cardinals were down, 2-0, to start the top of the ninth inning, and they were down, 2-1, with the bases loaded and two outs when Pendleton stepped to the plate. With ace closer Dan Quisenberry warming, Royals starter Charlie Leibrandt stayed in to face Pendleton. And despite three runners on base, St. Louis still had a mere 23% win expectancy, given the situation.

Pendleton’s double to left cleared the bases and put the Cardinals ahead, 4-2, an edge that comes with a 92% win expectancy. Hard to come up with a bigger hit than that. (However, the Royals got the last laugh by winning the Series in seven games.)