9 storylines to watch this Hot Stove season

The Dodgers are World Series champions, their reward for a busy 2023-24 offseason that saw them add a number of players, including Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernández and Tyler Glasnow.

Which teams will make enough moves this winter to dethrone Los Angeles next fall?

Players and clubs will make a number of decisions on options and qualifying offers in the coming days, and then the game's top decision-makers will gather next week in San Antonio for the general managers meetings, officially kicking off the 2024-25 Hot Stove season.

• The top 25 free agents this offseason (plus one bonus!)

Here’s a look at nine storylines that we’ll be talking about this winter:

What a Juan-derful world

Just as Ohtani’s free-agent sweepstakes dominated headlines last winter, Juan Soto will be the centerpiece of this offseason.

Soto’s age-25 season in pinstripes was stellar, as he slashed .288/.419/.569 with a career-high 41 home runs, driving in 109 runs. In most years, Soto would be an MVP frontrunner, but teammate Aaron Judge’s phenomenal season will leave Soto battling Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. for the silver medal in that race.

Now it’s Soto’s turn to go for the gold. More accurately, the new gold standard for baseball contracts.

Although nobody is projecting Soto to break Ohtani’s $700 million contract record, it should be noted that the deal the presumptive National League MVP signed with the Dodgers included $680 million in deferred money, making the present-day value of the contract worth $460 million. Soto, who most industry insiders believe will land a deal worth at least $500 million over 10 years, should wind up establishing a new mark for a free-agent deal in terms of present-day value.

So who will sign Soto? The Yankees are considered by most to be the frontrunners, but their crosstown rivals in Queens could take their shot at the now-26-year-old. Mets owner Steve Cohen has more money than any other owner in baseball, so if he decides he wants Soto at any cost, it will make for a bidding war the likes of which we’ve never seen.

Making their pitch

Recent free-agent classes have been thin on starting pitching aside from one or two top arms, but this year’s group includes a number of quality arms from which to choose.

Corbin Burnes leads the way and figures to land a deal worth north of $200 million, but pitching-needy clubs will have plenty of starters to pursue. Max Fried, one of the few Braves stars not to sign an extension with the club, will also be a hot name on the free-agent market.

Blake Snell opted out of his contract with the Giants and is testing free agency for a second straight year. Nick Martinez also opted out of his Reds deal, and Sean Manaea is expected to do so as well after a strong season with the Mets. Luis Severino, another Mets starter, is back on the market after signing a one-year deal last winter, as is Dodgers right-hander Jack Flaherty, who helped Los Angeles win the World Series following a midseason trade.

Other starters on the market include Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi (who is expected to decline his $20 million player option), Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber (recovering from Tommy John surgery), Walker Buehler, Frankie Montas, Nick Pivetta and Jose Quintana.

International man of mystery

The two biggest signings last winter were Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, both of whom went to the Dodgers and played major roles in Los Angeles’ championship season. The most intriguing question of this offseason is whether another Japanese sensation – right-hander Roki Sasaki – will follow his countrymen to the Major Leagues.

Sasaki, who turns 23 this week, is considered to be the best pitcher in Japan and has made his desire to pitch in the Majors clear, but the Chiba Lotte Marines have not decided whether to post the hard-throwing superstar.

Unlike Yamamoto, who signed a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers last winter, Sasaki wouldn’t be in position to spark an all-out bidding war for his services.

Players younger than 25 years old who have not reached six years of service in a foreign major league are subject to MLB's international amateur signing bonus pool rules, setting a cap on their contracts. Ohtani faced a similar situation in 2017, signing with the Angels for $2.315 million.

Sasaki has a 2.02 ERA over his first four seasons in Japan, but because of his contractual status, Chiba Lotte might opt to wait until he is 25 to post him to maximize the financial return. If he is posted, Sasaki would be the most highly coveted pitcher available this winter both for his talent and cost.

Polar-izing Bear

Pete Alonso is undoubtedly one of the biggest power hitters on the market this year, and while he doesn’t offer the same offensive profile as Soto, the first baseman could be the answer for clubs seeking some thump in the middle of their lineup.

Alonso’s contract year was productive – he hit 34 home runs with a .788 OPS in 162 games – but not as strong as the five that preceded it. Alonso averaged 44 homers in his four full seasons between 2019-2023 (he hit 16 homers in 57 games during the COVID-shortened 2020 season), posting an .870 OPS in his first five years.

After authoring some memorable moments for the Mets this postseason – who will ever forget his ninth-inning home run off Brewers closer Devin Williams that sent New York to the NLDS? – Alonso has some momentum heading into free agency. A return to the Mets is certainly in play, but if New York makes a big run at Soto or decides to pursue Alex Bregman, it could spell the end of Alonso’s time in Queens.

If he doesn’t stay in New York, Alonso – at best an average defender at first base – should have a number of suitors including the Astros, Mariners and possibly the Yankees, who would have a big hole in their lineup if Soto signs elsewhere. How much he will sign for remains a fascinating aspect of his situation, as first basemen haven’t seen the same mega-contracts that other positions have landed in recent years.

Short on shortstops

Free agency has been dominated by shortstops in the past few years, with Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson and Javier Báez all landing huge contracts.

This year’s shortstop options are far less appealing with one significant exception: Willy Adames.

Adames set career highs in 2024 with 32 home runs and 112 RBIs, helping the Brewers to another National League Central title. The 29-year-old has excelled since being traded to Milwaukee in 2021, hitting 107 home runs with 348 RBIs and a .780 OPS in 548 games while posting strong defensive metrics.

The Dodgers are among the clubs expected to make a big play for Adames, who has history with Los Angeles president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman from their time together with the Rays.

Pinstriped plan

The Yankees returned to the World Series for the first time in 15 years, but following their disappointing performance against the Dodgers, New York has some big decisions to make as they continue their quest for the franchise’s first championship since 2009.

Soto’s situation is first and foremost; the slugger posted huge numbers for the Yankees in his first season in the Bronx and losing him would create a massive hole in the lineup. General manager Brian Cashman knows it’s going to take a monstrous contract to retain Soto, but owner Hal Steinbrenner will have the final say.

A close second is Gerrit Cole, who opted out of the final four years and $144 million of his deal. The Yankees can still keep him by simply adding another year at $36 million to his contract, keeping him in pinstripes through 2029. Whether they will do that, however, is a question, especially now that Cole is 34 years old and had arm trouble that kept him out for the first two-plus months of 2024. If he becomes a free agent, New York will have an ace-sized hole in the rotation to deal with.

Aside from Soto and Cole, the Yankees have some other areas to address this offseason. Anthony Rizzo’s option was declined, while Alex Verdugo and Gleyber Torres are free agents. That means openings at first base, second base and left field, the latter of which will likely be filled by top prospect Jasson Domínguez.

The Yankees could bring in a new third baseman and move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second. Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle are also free agents, leaving some work to do in the bullpen.

Houston’s hot corner

Alex Bregman has been a staple of the Astros’ successful run through the American League since he debuted in 2016, making two All-Star teams while collecting a pair of top-five MVP finishes and two World Series rings during his nine seasons.

Bregman just finished the five-year, $100 million extension he signed in 2019, a deal that paid him $28.5 million in 2024. The Astros have bid farewell to championship players such as George Springer and Carlos Correa when they hit free agency, and while Houston has publicly stated its desire to retain Bregman, it remains to be seen whether the club will pay what is necessary to keep its homegrown star.

The Yankees, Mariners and Tigers could be among the clubs that try to pry Bregman – easily the top free agent at his position – out of Houston.

Giant opportunity

The hiring of Buster Posey sets up a fascinating offseason in San Francisco, where the Giants will be looking to return to the postseason for the first time since 2021.

The Giants finished 80-82 this season, their third straight year without a winning record. That presents Posey – the former Giants superstar who helped lead San Francisco to World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014 – with a lot of work to do in his first year running the club’s baseball operations department.

Posey just made his first hire of Zack Minasian as the general manager to work alongside him. With no true front-office experience, Posey – who did play a key role in signing Matt Chapman to his extension this season – should be able to bring a fresh look to the job held by Farhan Zaidi for the past six seasons.

With Snell opting out of his contract, the Giants will have to figure out how to replace the two-time Cy Young Award winner if they don’t re-sign him. There will be plenty of money to work with – in addition to Snell, Michael Conforto and Jorge Soler’s contracts are off the books – but it remains to be seen how aggressive Posey and the Giants will be as they attempt to turn things around.

Closing time

The past two offseasons have seen Edwin Díaz and Josh Hader sign the two biggest contracts in history for relief pitchers, and while there are some solid bullpen arms available this winter, none are expected to come close to the overall numbers those two received.

Tanner Scott, Carlos Estévez and Clay Holmes have all been All-Stars, leading the way for the free-agent reliever class. All three should garner interest as closers, though teams looking to build a super-bullpen could look to pay them closer-type money to work in a setup role.

Kirby Yates, David Robertson (mutual option), Blake Treinen, Jeff Hoffman, Kenley Jansen, Paul Sewald, Aroldis Chapman, Yimi García, Chris Martin, Shawn Armstrong and Dylan Floro will also be available. Given the importance of the bullpen in the current game, relief pitchers will be in high demand by nearly every club.