These teams beat the odds in September

Down, but not out. Just about every season, there is a team that fits that description, rallying during the stretch run to beat the odds -- specifically, the postseason odds.

These numbers are not just about where a team is in the standings. They also take into account the quality of the team (via its rest-of-season projections), its remaining strength of schedule and its competitors.

A handful of clubs will be fighting those odds over the final month of the 2019 regular season. The Brewers, D-backs, Mets, Phillies, and Red Sox all sat somewhere above 1% and below 33% entering Sunday. So what sort of precedent can they look toward to find inspiration for a potential journey into October?

A look back at postseason odds since the two-Wild Card system was implemented in 2012 reveals that over the past seven seasons, six teams that went on to qualify for the postseason entered September with odds lower than one-in-three.

Here is a look back at how they did it, beginning with the biggest longshots. Each club is listed with its postseason odds entering Sept. 1 of that season.

2013 Indians (9.6%)

Under first-year manager Terry Francona, Cleveland started 62-49 and was in position for its first postseason appearance since 2007. A 9-15 stretch to end August threw a wrench in those hopes, and the Indians found themselves 8 1/2 games behind the Tigers in the American League Central, plus 4 1/2 out of the second Wild Card spot.

From that point on, however, Cleveland (21-6) posted the best record in the Majors, ending with a 10-game winning streak that vaulted it over several teams and into the top Wild Card spot. Michael Brantley hit .345 and Nick Swisher launched seven homers to lead the offense in September, and the Tribe won all six games started by Ubaldo Jimenez (1.09 ERA). Unfortunately for Cleveland, though, a 4-0 loss to Tampa Bay in the AL Wild Card Game snapped that winning streak rather unceremoniously.

2018 Rockies (21.3%)

Even coming off a National League Wild Card Game appearance in 2017, Colorado only was given 18% postseason odds to begin ‘18, perhaps a result of sharing a division with the mighty Dodgers. That number had not changed a whole lot, although the Dodgers’ inability to pull away had made the NL West a three-team race between L.A., Arizona and Colorado. After the Rockies lost four of five to end August, they sat only 1 1/2 games back in both the division and Wild Card races, but with the Dodgers and Phillies in similar positions.

A starting rotation that had been a pleasant surprise all season -- led by Kyle Freeland and German Marquez -- tied for the sixth-best ERA in the Majors in September (3.43). That helped the Rockies to a 19-9 record in that final month, including an eight-game winning streak from Sept. 21-28. Colorado dropped a tiebreaker game at Dodger Stadium for the division title but reached the NL Division Series with a dramatic 13-inning Wild Card Game victory at Wrigley Field.

2012 Orioles (29.3%)

Entering manager Buck Showalter’s second full season at the helm in Baltimore, the Orioles hadn’t made the postseason or reached .500 since 1997. Baltimore began with only 7% postseason odds in a tough AL East, and those sank as low as 2% in early August, despite a winning record.

But Baltimore embarked on a 38-18 run to end the season, including nine one-run victories that contributed to a season-long record of 29-9 in those close contests. Behind a red-hot Chris Davis (1.057 OPS, 10 homers) and good work from a rookie named Manny Machado in September, Baltimore finished 93-69 and defeated Texas in the first AL Wild Card Game before dropping a hotly contested ALDS to the Yankees.

2016 Orioles (31.0%)

Baltimore made it to the ALCS in 2014 but fell back to .500 in ‘15, putting its '16 postseason prospects in doubt. The Orioles actually entered the year with the lowest postseason odds in the division (12%) but got off to a strong start before a 25-30 stretch in July and August left them clinging to a tie in the second Wild Card spot.

It wasn’t until after suffering a four-game sweep against Boston from Sept. 19-22 that Baltimore made its push. A Mark Trumbo 12th-inning walk-off homer against Arizona ignited a 7-2 closing burst that got the O’s to 89 wins -- three clear of the Tigers and Mariners for a Wild Card spot. However, they couldn’t capitalize in the Wild Card Game in Toronto, with untouchable closer Zack Britton infamously left in the bullpen in an 11-inning loss.

2016 Mets (31.1%)

The defending NL champions started strong but fell into a long slump and found themselves two games under .500 through Aug. 19, when they sat 5 1/2 games out of the second Wild Card spot.

Finally, the Mets turned things around, as their 27-13 record after that point -- including 17-10 in September -- was the best in the Majors. A huge September from Curtis Granderson (1.028 OPS, eight homers) helped New York pass St. Louis for the final Wild Card spot before Madison Bumgarner’s shutout in the Wild Card Game ended the team’s season.

2014 Pirates (32.9%)

A year after snapping their 20-year postseason drought, the Pirates started 18-26, didn’t climb over .500 until late June and remained two games out of the second NL Wild Card spot at the end of the August.

Clint Hurdle’s Bucs opened September by getting swept at St. Louis but then reeled off 17 wins in their final 23 games. Reigning NL MVP Andrew McCutchen (1.042 OPS) and Starling Marte (.973) enjoyed a huge final month at the plate, while Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez made five starts apiece with ERAs barely above 1.00. With fellow Wild Card contenders Atlanta and Milwaukee stumbling to the finish, Pittsburgh cruised into the Wild Card Game before -- like the Mets two years later -- seeing its season end via a Bumgarner shutout.