Red Sox continue to thrive as early-season betting underdogs

This article was contributed by BetMGM. For more sports betting insights, check out BetMGM.com

The Boston Red Sox still have three games remaining on their 10-game road trip to start the 2024 MLB season, but the results have been promising thus far.

Boston began by splitting a four-game set with the Seattle Mariners, winning the opener and series finale. The Red Sox followed that up with a three-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics, improving to 5-2 on the year ahead of a three-game series against the Los Angeles Angels.

While it’s too early to monitor the standings, the Red Sox sit second in the American League East. According to BetMGM’s online sportsbook, Boston was -115 (53.49% implied probability) to finish fifth in the division entering the 2024 season.

But exceeding expectations early in the year is a familiar theme for the Red Sox.

Since 2011, the Red Sox are 29-14 as run-line underdogs in the first 10 games of the season. Their ROI over that span is 16.5%, the best among all MLB teams.

Run lines are baseball betting’s version of the spread, which are almost always priced at +1.5 for the underdog and -1.5 for the favorite.

As for the moneyline, which is simply a wager on whether a team will win, the Red Sox are 23-20 outright as an underdog during the first 10 games of the year since 2011. Their ROI of 16% is the fifth-best mark during that timeframe.

So far this season, Boston is a 4-0 underdog on the run line for an ROI of 86.9% and 2-2 as a moneyline underdog with an ROI of 7.1%. All such games occurred during the opening series against the Mariners.

The Pittsburgh Pirates, who began the year 5-0, are the only team with a better record as run-line underdogs. They are 5-0 in such scenarios, covering by an average margin of +5.1.

Boston ranks fifth with an average coverage margin of +2.5 as a run-line underdog.

For comparison, the Red Sox went 47-38 (55.3%) across an entire season as run-line underdogs in 2023. Their average coverage margin of +1.1 ranked 11th in the majors.

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