Where could Burnes land in free agency?

With the 2024 season behind us and the hot stove ready to burn, we're taking a closer look at some of the most prominent players eligible for free agency.

Name: Corbin Burnes
Position: Right-handed pitcher
Team: Baltimore Orioles
Age (as of Opening Day 2025): 30
2024 stats: 15-9, 2.92 ERA, 194 1/3 IP, 1.096 WHIP, 181 K, 128 ERA+

Following a breakout 101-win campaign in 2023, the Orioles made a big move prior to last season, acquiring Corbin Burnes in a trade with the Brewers to be the ace Baltimore had been missing.

The Orioles got exactly what they had hoped for as the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner promptly established himself as the leader of the staff, posting an All-Star first half (9-4, 2.43 ERA in 19 starts) in his first season in Baltimore.

Burnes went through some second-half bumps, posting a 6-5 record with a 3.69 ERA in 13 starts. But he dazzled in his lone postseason outing, taking a tough 1-0 loss to the Royals despite throwing eight-plus innings of one-run ball.

With a 52-31 record, a 2.88 ERA and 816 2/3 innings pitched since the start of 2020 -- only Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler have thrown more frames during that stretch -- Burnes has set himself up for a big free-agent payday. In fact, he was recently named as the No. 2 free agent behind Juan Soto in an MLB.com poll of front-office executives.

Will the Orioles do what it takes to keep Burnes in Baltimore? Could another American League East rival try to pry him away? Will he be lured back home to the West Coast? Let’s take a look at how Burnes’ offseason might play out.

POTENTIAL SUITORS

DODGERS
At first glance, the Dodgers wouldn’t seem to be a club in the market for an ace, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani penciled in as the top three in Los Angeles’ rotation. But Glasnow has had trouble staying healthy and Ohtani will be returning from a second Tommy John surgery (not to mention surgery on his non-throwing shoulder this offseason), and the Dodgers could face the loss of Walker Buehler and Jack Flaherty to free agency, so adding a horse at the top of the rotation might be in order. The fact that Burnes hails from Bakersfield -- located 110 miles north of Dodger Stadium -- could give Los Angeles an edge in its recruitment.

ORIOLES
Burnes proved to be a perfect fit in Baltimore, where he posted a 2.94 ERA in 17 starts, allowing only 21 extra-base hits in the hitter-friendly ballpark. Some wonder whether new Orioles ownership will pay what it will take to retain the right-hander, though location might also be a factor if the Southern California native decides he wants to pitch closer to home. Either way, expect the Orioles to remain in the mix until the very end.

METS
President of baseball operations David Stearns knows Burnes well from their time together in Milwaukee, where the pitcher was part of Stearns’ first Draft class as general manager. The Mets face the potential loss of Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana, so filling the starting rotation will be a priority this offseason. Whether the Mets are able to land Juan Soto could help determine how aggressive they will be on the pitching market.

YANKEES
Gerrit Cole’s return to the Bronx erased the need for a new ace, and while the Yankees have Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman all under control for next season, it’s never a good idea to count out the Yankees when a stud starter becomes available.

RED SOX
Boston’s rotation depth is interesting, with Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello all returning in 2025. Lucas Giolito will be coming back from Tommy John surgery, and the Red Sox extended a qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta, who could also come back. But the rotation is lacking a frontline ace, a role Burnes could fill as the Red Sox look to return to the postseason for the first time since 2021.

BLUE JAYS
Toronto made a big push for Shohei Ohtani last winter, so no contract demands are likely to scare the Blue Jays away. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt headed into their final seasons prior to free agency, the Jays could try to make the most of that window with a big signing, while also protecting themselves against the loss of ace Kevin Gausman, who will be a free agent after the 2026 season.

ANGELS
If Burnes has a desire to head west and pitch near his hometown, the Angels would be one of the teams in play for the SoCal native. Even after adding Kyle Hendricks early in the offseason, the Angels have an obvious need for frontline rotation help, though the club has very little history of spending big for starting pitching. If that changes, Burnes could be atop the Angels’ wish list.

GIANTS
The Giants have tried unsuccessfully to lure sluggers such as Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani to San Francisco, but the club may have a better chance of bringing a pitcher to spacious Oracle Park. With Logan Webb already on board atop the rotation, the Giants could take a run at Burnes to replace Blake Snell, who opted out of his contract at the end of the season. Also of note: Burnes played his college ball at St. Mary’s, only 20 miles from downtown San Francisco.

TIGERS
Detroit made an unlikely return to the postseason in 2024, and while the Tigers have an ace in Cy Young finalist Tarik Skubal, he’s only under control for two more years before he becomes a free agent. Adding a top arm such as Burnes would give the Tigers a lethal 1-2 punch atop the rotation, and if they can get Skubal signed long term, the pair would help keep Detroit in contention annually.

PADRES
San Diego returns Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Michael King to the rotation in 2025, but Joe Musgrove’s elbow surgery leaves a huge hole in the group. The Padres will take their shot at Roki Sasaki, whose price tag will be a fraction of Burnes’ contract, but if the Japanese phenom signs elsewhere, GM A.J. Preller will likely look at every available pitching option, including the Southern California native.

EXECUTIVE TAKE
“Burnes will be the most sought-after starting pitcher this offseason. Entering his age-30 season, he is likely looking at a contract in the range of six years and at least $175 million. Some may argue he has the potential to decline before reaching the end of a deal given his slight but steady decrease in strikeouts over the last few seasons. His go-to cutter, which he throws nearly half the time, has also shown to be less effective over the last couple of years, but it remains an effective pitch. Despite all of that, Burnes is the most reliable and impressive starting pitcher in free agency this year, and he should be in great demand and receive the type of deal he is seeking. I’m sure the Orioles would hate to lose him given their recent success and the talent still on the way, but perhaps he lands somewhere else.”

BUYER BEWARE
Burnes’ strikeout rate in 2024 was 23.1%, his lowest since he became a starting pitcher. Ditto for his whiff percentage, which sat annually in the mid-to-high 30s, but dropped to 28.8% in 2023 and 28.6% in 2024. Burnes allowed more good contact in 2024 than he had since 2020 -- his barrel rate ranked in the 70th percentile in the Majors -- so he would benefit from joining a club with strong defense behind him.

FOR COMP'S SAKE
Three pitchers in recent years have signed deals worth more than $40 million annually, though all three -- Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Zack Wheeler -- landed contracts for either two or three years. Burnes figures to be seeking at least a six-year contract, likely putting him in the $175 million-$200 million range, a touch higher than the seven-year, $172 million deal Aaron Nola signed last year entering his age-31 campaign. Carlos Rodón, who hit free agency with a lesser résumé than Burnes, signed for six years and $162 million prior to the 2023 season.