Don't sleep on these arms competing in hitting-rich O's camp
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NORTH PORT, Fla. -- The Orioles have sat atop MLB Pipeline's farm system rankings since mid-2021, largely on the strength of their position prospects. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and now Jackson Holliday all have rated as the consensus best prospect in baseball during that time.
All the formidable bats making their way to Baltimore have obscured the fact that the franchise is producing pitchers as well. Grayson Rodriguez was once ranked as the game's top pitching prospect before arriving in Baltimore. Felix Bautista, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer all spent significant time in the Orioles' system prior to joining Rodriguez as key contributors on last season's 101-win American League East championship team.
"I think it's more commonly known that we have some elite hitting prospects," vice president of player development and domestic scouting Matt Blood said. "We've done a pretty good job developing hitters. But if you take a look at the numbers and underlying metrics, we're performing well in our pitching development as well."
This spring, Top 100 Prospects Holliday, Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad all are pushing for spots in Baltimore's lineup. They've attracted a lot of Grapefruit League headlines while the system's best mound prospects (right-hander Chayce McDermott, left-hander Cade Povich) also are knocking on the door after advancing to Triple-A in 2023, as is righty Justin Armbruester.
Part of a basketball family that includes a brother (Sean) who played in the NBA, McDermott opted to focus on baseball and came to the Orioles from the Astros in the three-team Trey Mancini trade in August 2022. He won organization Minor League pitcher of the year accolades last year, when he led the Minors in opponent average (.167) and ranked 10th in strikeout rate (11.5 per nine innings). He misses bats with a mid-90s fastball with a peak velocity of 97 mph and plenty of carry and a sweeping low-80s slider.
"Since Day One, Chayce has meshed pretty well with our staff," Blood said. "We’ve allowed him to do some things he naturally does well and provided him with some good input. He has really good stuff and competes well. He's on an upward trajectory."
Another 2022 Trade Deadline acquisition, Povich was part of the four-player package the Twins gave up for Jorge López. He has added velocity and upgraded the shapes of his pitches since changing organizations, and his fastball, curveball, slider and changeup all show flashes of becoming solid offerings. He ranked fourth in the Minors last year by averaging 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Armbruester has made similar strides since signing as a 12th-rounder out of New Mexico State in 2021. Strong and physical at 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, he dodges barrels with a deceptive low-90s fastball, a low-80s slider and an upper-80s cutter. He's not as overpowering as McDermott or Povich but throws more strikes.
Right-handers Trace Bright and Seth Johnson both reached Double-A a year ago and could work their way into Baltimore's plans for 2024. More on them below...
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Camp standout: Trace Bright
Bright was inconsistent during his college career at Auburn, though he led the Tigers' 2022 College World Series team in strikeouts (94 in 80 2/3 innings) and notched their lone victory in Omaha. Baltimore liked his pitch shapes more than his performance and drafted him in the fifth round that July. He used a 92-96 mph fastball with nice plane and carry and an upper-70s curveball to notch 147 whiffs in 99 2/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last year.
Bright has continued to impress in Minor League camp and during the Orioles' 3-1 Spring Breakout loss to the Pirates on Thursday. He threw 31 of 45 pitches for strikes while allowing one run with four strikeouts in three innings, sitting at 93-95 mph with his heater and getting five swings and misses with a mid-80s changeup.
"Trace has looked really good this spring," Blood said. "We've just tried to help him refine his arsenal and pitch shapes. We're trying to get him to be a little more productive with his pitch usages and locations."
Breakout candidate: Seth Johnson
Another piece of the Mancini trade, Johnson was drafted 40th overall out of Campbell by the Rays in 2019. He had Tommy John surgery shortly after the deal and didn't debut in the Orioles' system until last August. A former shortstop who may be the most athletic of Baltimore's pitching prospects, he could have a pair of plus pitches in a mid-90s fastball that touches 98 with late life and a mid-80s slider.
"Seth was very impressive during his rehab in the way he went about his business," Blood said. "Once he was able to throw, he impressed with the way he got to work improving his arsenal. He's very strong, very athletic and has a great mind. We're optimistic that he's going to be a very valuable pitcher."
Something to prove: Carter Baumler
The Orioles loved Baumler's athleticism and projectability enough to sign the Iowa high school product for $1.5 million in 2020, matching the highest bonus paid to a player in the fifth round since the Draft's bonus-pool era began in 2012. But the right-hander blew out his elbow in instructional league that fall, requiring Tommy John surgery, and he came down with shoulder problems in 2022 that required another operation. He has pitched just 28 2/3 innings in the Minors since turning pro.
"Carter is a very interesting guy," Blood said. "We just haven't been able to keep him on the mound. He's a very good athlete and he's strong, smart and competitive and very good stuff. We hope he can have a healthy year and show what he's capable of. We've barely seen him, so he still feels very fresh."