The All-Star case for Austin Hays

This story was excerpted from Jake Rill’s Orioles Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

During a pregame media session Tuesday at Tropicana Field, Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde was asked about Adley Rutschman still leading American League catchers in MLB All-Star voting following the latest update. Hyde posed a question of his own soon after.

“Where’s [Austin] Hays at?” Hyde asked.

He was informed that Hays ranked 15th among AL outfielders in the most recent update.

“That’s terrible,” Hyde said.

It’s an understandable response, considering how well Hays has played nearing the midway point of the 2023 season and how crucial the 27-year-old outfielder has been to the success of the Orioles, who entered Wednesday at 45-27 (the second-best record in the AL and the third-best in MLB).

Phase 1 of All-Star voting ends Thursday at noon ET. Only six outfielders will advance to Phase 2, which begins Monday.

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Hays has a large deficit to overcome. In Tuesday’s update, he trailed Toronto’s George Springer (the outfielder with the sixth-most votes) by 349,833. If Hays can’t erase that margin (and pass the other outfielders ahead of him), he could still be named an All-Star reserve either as a Player Ballot choice or as a Commissioner’s Office selection.

Is Hyde right? Should Hays be included on the AL All-Star roster (to be announced July 2 at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN) for the first time in his six-year big league career? Let’s break down his case.

Offense

One stat encompasses why Hays’ bat has been All-Star caliber -- his batting average.

Entering Wednesday, Hays was hitting an AL-best .327. That mark was also tied for second in MLB with Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. The only qualified big league hitter with a better average heading into the day was Miami’s Luis Arraez (.398).

In Hays’ two previous full big league seasons (2021 and ‘22), he didn’t hit better than .256. The key to his improved offense? Good health -- he’s played through several injuries in recent years -- and a simpler approach of trying to hit balls hard into the gaps. Per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 75th percentile in barrel rate and the 59th percentile in hard-hit rate in MLB.

“I like my plans I’m building before the game with our hitting coaches and just being really consistent and sticking to what we’re planning before the game, and carrying it out throughout the game,” said Hays, who had 21 doubles, two triples, eight homers and 31 RBIs through 66 games entering Wednesday. “So I like that I’m staying solid with that.”

Hays collected three more hits Tuesday, extending his career-long streak of multihit games to five. He had eight multihit efforts in a 13-game span from June 6-20. And entering Wednesday, he ranked among the AL leaders in hits (sixth with 80), slugging percentage (fourth at .527) and OPS (fourth at .893).

Defense

Hays’ advanced defensive metrics don’t jump off the charts. His minus-1 Outs Above Average is tied for seventh among AL left fielders, per Statcast. He also ranks seventh among that group in Ultimate Zone Rating (4.1), according to FanGraphs.

But Hays has been a solid defender with one elite component -- his arm strength. According to Statcast, Hays’ average throw speed of 90.7 mph ranks second among MLB left fielders, behind only Kansas City’s Edward Olivares (91.9).

In the first inning of the Orioles’ 8-7 win over the A’s on April 13, Hays had a throw of 100.1 mph -- the hardest by a left fielder this season and tied for the seventh-hardest by any defensive player. He also has four assists, tied for eighth-most among MLB outfielders in 2023.

“The league knows how good of an arm it is,” Hyde said.

Consensus

Hays’ All-Star case is strong. So it would be quite a snub if he isn’t among the Orioles’ representatives at T-Mobile Park in Seattle on July 11.

Rutschman and closer Félix Bautista should be locks. Setup man Yennier Cano also has a great chance to make the All-Star Game. And Hays is only strengthening his bid as the Midsummer Classic draws closer.

“He’s leading the league in hitting. He’s getting huge hits for us. The power,” Hyde said of Hays. “He’s showing everybody what kind of player he can be.”