Astros in unusual late-season spot -- a close pennant race

This story was excerpted from Brian McTaggart’s Astros Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Astros fans might find that their knuckles are a little bit whiter, their nails a little shorter these days. That’s what a pennant race will do to you. Oh, you don’t remember how to react in a tight pennant race? If you’ve been an Astros fan the last few years, you might not.

The Astros have dominated the American League West in recent years, winning five of the last six division titles. The only one they didn’t win in that span was in the 60-game season of 2020, when Oakland won the title (the A’s were bounced in the playoffs by the Astros that fall). Through Aug. 24 last year, the Astros led the AL West by 12 1/2 games and were positioning themselves for a long playoff run that resulted in a World Series championship.

Things are different this year, with the Astros fighting for their playoff lives as the last month of the season approaches. Houston began play Saturday one game behind the Rangers and Mariners, who are tied for first in the AL West. According to FanGraphs, the Astros have the easiest schedule remaining between the Rangers and Mariners and have the best odds among the three to make the playoffs (80.0 percent) and win the World Series (9.4 percent).

So why do you feel so nervous? That’s because the Astros have been leading the AL West at this point of the season in each of the last five full seasons (not including 2020). What’s more, they’ve had leads of at least eight games in three of those five seasons. Here’s a look at where the Astros stood in the division through Aug. 24 in each of the last five full seasons (not including 2020):

2017: Up 12 1/2 games (won World Series)
2018: Up 1 1/2 games (lost in ALCS)
2019: Up 8 games (lost World Series)
2021: Up 3 1/2 games (lost World Series)
2022: Up 12 1/2 games (won World Series)

The Astros (72-58) have already lost more games than they did last season, and they’re in danger of finishing with their lowest wins total since the last time they missed the playoffs in 2016. Granted, the Astros have been a juggernaut and have averaged 102.4 wins in each of the last five full seasons, winning at least 100 games four times (101 in 2017, 103 in ’18, 107 in ’19 and 106 last year). That’s a remarkable accomplishment and a hard pace to sustain.

That’s especially true in a division in which the Mariners and Rangers improved each of the last two years to try to run down Houston. The Astros would have to go 28-4 to reach 100 wins, or -- more realistically -- go 18-14 to reach 90 wins. And 90 wins might be good enough to win the division.

Let’s look at the remaining schedule. Entering Saturday, the Astros’ remaining opponents had a .495 winning percentage, according to FanGraphs. The Mariners’ remaining opponents had a .504 winning percentage, and the Rangers’ remaining opponents had a .519 winning percentage.

Including this weekend’s series at the Tigers, the Astros had 18 games remaining against teams currently under .500 -- three with the Tigers (59-69), Yankees (62-66), Padres (61-68) and A’s (38-91) and six against the Royals (41-89). They need to take advantage of the schedule considering they’ll travel to Seattle and Arizona -- a pair of postseason contenders -- to end the year.

Meanwhile, the Rangers and Mariners will play each other seven times in the season’s final 10 games, which gives the Astros an opportunity to gain ground on one of their AL West rivals each night.

Will the Astros win a sixth division title in seven years? Can they reach the ALCS for the seventh year in a row? First things first. The Astros are fighting for their playoff lives, which should provide plenty more opportunities for chewed fingernails and frayed nerves in the next few weeks.