Underestimate a National League underdog? Houston knows better

HOUSTON -- Have you heard the one about a National League East team that struggled through portions of the regular season, only to rally in time to make the playoffs and win the World Series? If you’re a fan of the Astros, it’s the kind of late October horror story that could make you dread Halloween.

So when the Phillies secured a Wild Card berth in the final days of the regular season -- clinching it in Houston, no less -- you couldn’t help but wonder if they were destined to meet the Astros in the World Series. After all, it was the 2019 Nationals and 2021 Braves who took similar routes to the Fall Classic and knocked off a favored Astros club.

With the Phillies headed to Houston for Friday's Game 1, here’s a closer look at the routes the two previous NL East underdogs took to beat the Astros in the Fall Classic, and how the Astros hope it might be different this time.

2019 Nationals

Regular-season finish: 93-69 (second place in the NL East)

Low point: The Nationals, who lost Bryce Harper to the Phillies in free agency after the 2018 season, had a 19-31 record 50 games into 2019 after being swept in four games by the Mets from May 20-23. In each of the last three losses in New York, Washington blew an eight-inning lead. The bullpen was a huge issue, the Nats had suffered key injuries, and there were questions about the future of the team and manager Dave Martinez.

How they turned it around: Behind Anthony Rendon (126 RBIs), the then-20-year-old Juan Soto, and star pitchers Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, the Nats went 74-38 the rest of the way. Washington swept a five-game series from Philadelphia from Sept. 23-26, clinching a playoff berth on Sept. 24, and finished the season by sweeping Cleveland. The Nationals then beat the Brewers in the Wild Card Game, knocked out the 106-win Dodgers in five games in the NLDS and swept the Cardinals in the NLCS before heading to Houston.

• World Series ticket information

Key stat: The Nats the became ninth team in MLB history to come back from 12 games under .500 to make the postseason.

How they beat the Astros: In the only World Series in which the home team lost every game, the Nationals rallied to win Game 7 in Houston after Astros starter Zack Greinke kept them scoreless for 6 1/3 innings. Howie Kendrick hit a two-run homer off reliever Will Harris in the seventh to put the Nats ahead, 3-2, and Washington went on to win, 6-2. Strasburg won both of his starts and was named World Series MVP.

2021 Braves

Regular-season finish: 88-73 (first place in NL East)

Low point: The Braves’ streak of three consecutive NL East titles looked to be in jeopardy when Ronald Acuña Jr. underwent season-ending surgery on his right knee on July 10. They were 44-44 through 88 games, and 4 1/2 games behind the first-place Mets.

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How they turned it around: The Braves acquired Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario to remake their outfield at the Trade Deadline but were in third place on Aug. 1. They then swept a three-game series in St. Louis to begin a stretch in which they won 16 of 18 games, including nine straight against the Nationals, Marlins and Orioles from Aug. 13-22, taking a 4 1/2-game lead in the division.

Key stat: The Braves didn’t reach .500 until Aug. 6, the latest date for a World Series-bound club to reach that mark in MLB history.

How they beat the Astros: The Astros, having played all season without Justin Verlander and losing Lance McCullers Jr. to an injury in the ALDS, ran out of pitching in the Fall Classic. Over six games, Houston got only 21 innings from its starting pitchers -- Greinke (one start), José Urquidy (one start), Framber Valdez (two starts) and Luis Garcia (two starts). Offensively, Carlos Correa (6-for-23), Jose Altuve (6-for-27) and Alex Bregman (2-for-21) struggled, as did ALCS MVP Yordan Alvarez (2-for-20).

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2022 Phillies

Regular-season finish: 87-75 (third place in NL East)

Low point: The Phillies were 22-29 on June 3, when they fired manager Joe Girardi and replaced him with Rob Thomson.

How they turned it around: Despite injuries to Harper, Jean Segura, Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin, the Phillies got hot. They went 41-19 from June 1 to Aug. 10, vaulting them into second place in the Wild Card race. They hung on despite going 8-13 to close out the regular season, then swept the Cards in the Wild Card Series, toppled the Braves in four games in the NLDS and won three in a row to beat the Padres, 4-1, in the NLCS.

Key stat: The Phillies were 21-29 through 50 games, which ties them with the 2003 Marlins for the fourth-worst record through 50 games of any team to win a pennant.

Can they beat the Astros? Sure, but as with the ’19 Nats and ’21 Braves, it would be an upset. Houston’s pitching is in much better shape than it was a year ago, with a healthy Verlander and McCullers and All-Star Valdez all ready to go. They match up well against Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler and have better depth than Philadelphia after that.

The Astros -- who won 19 more games than the Phillies in the regular season -- are clearly the better team and are unbeaten in the postseason (7-0), but they don’t have look too far back to realize anything can happen when a hot NL East team gets into the World Series.