Will Game 3 be turning point for Astros?

This story was excerpted from Brian McTaggart’s Astros Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter_, click here. _And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ARLINGTON -- The Astros have never come back to win a playoff series after dropping the first two games, which is what they’ll have to do in the American League Championship Series against the Rangers to keep their season alive.

Teams that win the first two games in a best-of-seven playoff series have gone on to win the series 75 of 89 times (84 percent), including 26 of 29 times (90 percent) in the current 2-3-2 format. Each of the three exceptions came in the World Series: 1985 (Royals over Cards), 1986 (Mets over Red Sox), and 1996 (Yankees over Braves).

“We just need to win one tomorrow and we’re back in the driver’s seat, I believe,” Astros outfielder Chas McCormick said Tuesday.

Astros manager Dusty Baker knows better than anyone that trailing by two games in a playoff series doesn’t mean the series is over.

While managing the Cubs in 2003, Chicago blew a 3-1 series lead to the Marlins in the National League Championship Series. As manager in Cincinnati, his '12 Reds blew a 2-0 series lead to the Giants in the best-of-five NLDS.

“I've been up 2-0 and lost. I've been down 2-0 and won,” Baker said. “I've been down as a player, three games back with three games to go, and we tied it up. So it's like -- I'm not giving it to them yet.”

Here’s how the Astros have fared after trailing 2-0 in playoff series in their history:

1997 NLDS vs. Braves: Swept 3-0
2001 NLDS vs. Braves: Swept 3-0
2004 NLCS vs. Cardinals: Lost in 7
2005 World Series vs. White Sox: Swept 4-0
2019 World Series vs. Nationals: Lost in 7
2020 ALCS vs. Rays: Lost in 7

Several current Astros were on the 2019 and ‘20 playoff teams that forced a Game 7 after losing the first two games. In the 2019 World Series, the Astros lost the first two games at home, and then won three in a row in Washington before coming home and losing Games 6 and 7. It’s the only time in playoff history the road team has won all seven games.

In 2020, during the pandemic-shortened season, the Astros lost the first three games of the ALCS against the Rays in a series played in seven consecutive days at Petco Park in San Diego. Houston rallied to win the next three games before losing Game 7, allowing the Rays to advance to the World Series.

“Even though we’re down 2-0, I feel like we’ve got some momentum because we’ve played well here [in Arlington] this year and I think we can keep doing that,” McCormick said. “Mentally, you’ve got to be strong this time of the season. There’s a lot of ups and downs. I think we’re in good shape, though. We played really well here so far, and I think we can do the same these next three games.”