What to watch for in Astros' Wild Card Series vs. Tigers

This story was excerpted from Brian McTaggart’s Astros Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

HOUSTON -- The Astros and Tigers, two teams that overcame poor starts to qualify for the postseason, will clash in an intriguing American League Wild Card Series this week in a matchup featuring some good subplots.

At the top of that list is former Astros manager A.J. Hinch, in his fourth year with Detroit, bringing his red-hot Tigers to Minute Maid Park, a place where he helped the Astros turn into a force, with four playoff appearances in his five years in Houston highlighted by a 2017 World Series championship.

Hinch and Astros manager Joe Espada were both up-and-coming prospects in Oakland’s system and have remained friends and confidants. Hinch hired Espada to be his bench coach in the days after the Astros won the 2017 World Series -- a role in which he remained until he was tabbed to replace Dusty Baker prior to this season.

“For me, personally, getting my playoff series against A.J., someone who has been like a mentor for me, it’s exciting,” Espada said. “It’s really exciting. We won’t be having morning coffee or nothing like that. It’s actually something I’m looking forward to.”

Espada was a second-round Draft pick of Oakland in 1996, and Hinch was the Athletics’ third-round pick in the same year. They have remained friends and will guide a pair of teams into the playoffs that had to overcome long odds to reach October.

The Astros became the first team in the expansion era to start a 162-game season with a 7-19 record and make the playoffs, winning their seventh AL West title in eight seasons. Houston is trying for its record eighth consecutive trip to the ALCS following a season in which it went 88-73 (Sunday’s series finale was rained out).

“It ends with us finishing the regular season and going to the postseason, which was our goal,” Espada said. “We are excited about that."

The Tigers were 55-63 on Aug. 10 and had a 0.2 percent chance at a postseason spot, according to FanGraphs. Then, they went on a 31-13 finishing kick to make an AL Wild Card. The Astros went 4-2 against the Tigers in the regular season, but those meetings were in the first half of the season, when both teams were playing much differently than they are now.

“It doesn’t really matter who we play, we still have to go out there and play good baseball,” Astros slugger Kyle Tucker said. “We’re looking forward to the series and trying to score some runs, play good defense and pitch well. We’ve just got to take care of that and do our best and go from there.”

Aside from the Espada-Hinch angle, the biggest storylines of the Wild Card Series are the availability of Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez and the Game 1 matchup between AL pitching Triple Crown winner Tarik Skubal and Astros lefty Framber Valdez.

Alvarez, who hit .308 with 35 homers, 86 RBIs and a .959 OPS, suffered a sprained right knee when he slid into second base on Sept. 22 in Houston and was removed from the game. Alvarez resumed baseball activities on the field Sunday in Houston and could take batting practice Monday, which means he could be available for the Wild Card Series.

“That’s a really good sign,” Espada said. “He checked a ton of boxes.”

Skubal led all AL pitchers with 18 wins, a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts, becoming the first pitcher to win the Triple Crown since Shane Bieber in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. He’ll be facing off in Game 1 against Valdez, a playoff-tested lefty who went 10-2 with a 2.19 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in his final 16 starts, with the Astros going 14-2 in those games.

A best-of-three series puts a lot of emphasis on Game 1, with the loser of that game having to win two elimination games to stay alive. The Astros have the decided starting pitching advantage for the possible final two games of the series, with Detroit native Hunter Brown and veteran lefty Yusei Kikuchi likely to follow Valdez.

Brown went 11-5 with a 2.51 ERA in 147 innings in his final 25 games (24 starts) of the regular season. Kikuchi, acquired from the Blue Jays at the Trade Deadline, was 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP and had 76 strikeouts in 60 innings with Houston. The Astros went 9-1 in games he started.

Houston’s starting pitching is so deep that it’s moving Ronel Blanco, who was second in the AL in ERA behind Skubal, to the bullpen, along with promising rookie Spencer Arrighetti. Justin Verlander, a former Tigers legend, might not even make the Astros’ Wild Card Series roster, which tells you how much pitching Houston has.

The Astros’ lineup figures to have the edge, too, especially if Alvarez is in it, but facing Skubal in a best-of-three series will magnify the importance of Game 1.

“We battled our way to get here, and now it’s time to do what we love to do the best and just play in the postseason,” Astros third baseman Alex Bregman said.

The Astros have made the playoffs in each of the past seven seasons; Detroit couldn't even manage a .500 record once in that span. In other words, Houston has played 103 postseason games since this current run of success began in 2015, while the Tigers, who have existed for about six decades longer than the Astros, have played in 120 playoff games in their franchise's history.

“Postseason is a completely different ballgame,” Espada said. “We’re going to go home and prepare ourselves for a series against a really good ballclub.”