These are Astros' keys to '21 playoff success

HOUSTON -- There will be no more playoff-tested team in the American League than the Astros, who are back in the postseason for the sixth time in seven seasons and are vying for their fifth consecutive trip to the AL Championship Series.

The Astros possess a deep and experienced lineup and a solid rotation and bullpen heading into the American League Division Series against the White Sox, but they’re far from the juggernaut that won the World Series in 2017 and came within eight outs of another World Series title in 2019.

Still, the Astros are once again a legitimate contender in the AL and are as healthy has they’ve been all season. And they also seem to play their best in October. Remember last year, when they went 29-31 in an uninspired regular season and then stormed to within a game of a third World Series appearance in four seasons?

The Astros and AL Central champion White Sox have been on a collision course for the last few weeks, with the AL East champ Rays running away with the best record in the league. Houston won five of seven games against Chicago in the regular season, but the White Sox were without Luis Robert and the Astros were without Alex Bregman -- two game-changing bats.

“They’ve got a great team,” Astros shortstop Carlos Correa said. “Their pitching staff is really good. They’ve got a lot of great hitters in their lineup, so we’ve just got to go out there and take care of business. We have our game plan, and we’ll go out there and try to execute it and hopefully win that series. We know it’s going to be an interesting series because they have a great team.”

What will it take for the Astros to get back to the World Series?

How do the Astros advance out of the Division Series?
They’re going to have to hit. There are questions about the Astros’ pitching rotation and questions about the bullpen, but few doubts about the viability of offense, which was the highest-scoring in the Major Leagues this year (5.3 runs per game).

When it comes to close games, the Astros were so-so in the regular season, going 30-34 in games decided by two runs or fewer. They’re at their best when they’re scoring runs in bunches and blowing teams out, which they did quite a bit. Houston went 83-24 when scoring at least four runs in a game.

Because of injuries and the Astros’ penchant for giving key offensive players occasional rest, the top seven hitters in their lineup -- Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Correa, Kyle Tucker and AL batting champion Yuli Gurriel -- were all in the lineup at the same time in only 29 games, during which the Astros went 18-11. They should all be in the lineup for the playoffs, barring an injury.

When it comes to the postseason, Gurriel, Altuve, Correa and Bregman have all had huge moments for the Astros in the last few years. Altuve has 18 career playoff homers and is a .306 career hitter in the postseason, while Correa has 17 homers and 50 RBIs in 63 games. Bregman has 11 career playoff homers. Then there’s Brantley (.311 career hitter in playoffs) and Tucker (.279 in the postseason).

If the Astros’ offense performs up to its potential, it will be hard to beat.

What does the blueprint for a championship run look like?
The Astros will go as far as their offense takes them, but their pitching is good enough to keep them in most games. That’s where the bullpen’s performance will be magnified.

If the Astros aren’t putting up tons of runs on offense, they’ll need their starters to work deep, especially right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. and lefty Framber Valdez, who are their top two starters. Luis Garcia wasn’t as effective down the stretch as he endured a career high in innings, but he has the ability to shut teams down for six innings. He pitched more than six innings three times in 28 starts, and José Urquidy went more than six innings five times in 20 starts.

From there, it’s about the back end of the bullpen. If their starters can go six innings, the Astros will have it lined up the way they want with Ryne Stanek pitching the seventh, Kendall Graveman in the eighth and All-Star closer Ryan Pressly in the ninth. Like they did so well in 2017, the Astros could piggyback starters, which means Zack Greinke or Jake Odorizzi could be a factor out of the ‘pen.

What the Astros can’t afford to do is endure a slump on offense. No stretch better summed up how maddening their offense can be than a seven-game run from Sept. 20-26. They scored 29 runs in three blowout wins over the Angels and then managed just eight runs in their next four games, losing all of them. They also blew two saves in those four losses.

What’s the one reason for concern?
Despite midseason trades to acquire relievers Graveman, Yimi García and Phil Maton, the Astros’ bullpen isn’t as reliable as the club would like. With starters not pitching as deep into games as the season ended, Houston relievers had a 6.31 ERA in the final 11 games of the regular season.

The Astros ranked 24th in Major League Baseball in save percentage at 55.7 percent and were tied for seventh with the most blown saves (27). That’s why the Astros’ record in close games isn’t great. If Chicago gets into the Houston bullpen early in the series, the Astros are vulnerable.

Stanek, Graveman and Pressly can be a formidable 1-2-3, and Brooks Raley has put together a solid second half, but Maton (4.97 ERA with Houston) and García (5.48 ERA with Houston) have been shaky, and lefty Blake Taylor’s effectiveness has waned. Adding Greinke to the bullpen could help eat some innings, but the Astros’ best chance to win is having their starters to go six innings before turning it over to their most effective arms.