How does ace's future in Atlanta look?

This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman's Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

With Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson both departing within the past two offseasons, some Braves fans might be understandably pessimistic about the likelihood of Max Fried staying with Atlanta beyond the 2024 season.

Fried has two more years remaining on his contract, and he recently said he’d be willing to discuss an extension. But the willingness to discuss numbers doesn’t make sense if the timing isn’t right for both parties.

With the Braves already over the first luxury tax threshold for this season, there certainly isn’t any reason for them to provide Fried a new contract that would increase payroll and the tax they would need to pay based on the overage amount. But an extension that affects only payrolls beyond 2023 could be discussed at any point.

As for Fried, his value has increased over the past three seasons and could continue to do so if he builds on the success he had while finishing second in last year’s National League Cy Young Award voting. He’s certainly in line to get at least the six-year, $162 million deal Carlos Rodón received from the Yankees this winter.

But with another couple of strong seasons, Fried would position himself to get a $30 million-plus annual salary after turning 30 years old. This is just the cost of doing business in the starting pitching market right now.

Would the Braves be one of the teams willing to give Fried more than $30 million per year? Right now, it doesn’t feel like it. But things could change based on how he pitches over the next two seasons, and more importantly, how guys such as Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson and Michael Soroka fare over the next couple of years.

Strider and Wright spent last year providing reason to believe they can be frontline starters for many years to come. If either Anderson or Soroka rebounds this year, the Braves will feel better about having at least three solid starters forming a strong rotation base over the next few seasons.

Fried’s future will also be influenced by how Bryce Elder, Jared Shuster, AJ Smith-Shawver, Owen Murphy, J.R. Ritchie and other top prospects pitch over the next couple of years. Elder and Shuster could both make big league starts this year, while the other three are a couple of years away. But their progress this year will give the Braves a better feel for future rotations and whether they will need to keep Fried.