Blue Jays impressed by Nimmala's development

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- The Blue Jays don’t just need to develop more big leaguers, they need to develop a star.

That’s the secret sauce. Homegrown stars, like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, allow you to spend freely and build a franchise around them. Even though it hasn’t added up to what Toronto envisioned, adding Hyun Jin Ryu, George Springer, Kevin Gausman, José Berrios, Chris Bassitt and other veterans around a young core felt like a formula for success along the way.

Regardless of whether Vladdy and Bichette stay beyond 2025, the Blue Jays need another wave of core players. One or two from their current busload of young infielders could separate themselves from the pack, but down in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues, No. 5 prospect Arjun Nimmala has the talent this organization can dream on.

This is what Toronto expected from the No. 20 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, but to see it so early from an 18-year-old has been particularly encouraging. Most importantly, he’s failed, adapted and bounced back, leaving an extremely strong impression on many in the organization.

Nimmala was challenged with an assignment to Single-A Dunedin right out of the gate this season … and it didn’t go well. Over 29 games, he hit just .167 and struck out 43 times in 108 at-bats. He looked overmatched against older, more experienced pitchers, because of course he did. The Blue Jays pulled Nimmala back to their complex and placed him on the development list at midseason to work on some specifics, and by the time he returned to Single-A, all of that work paid off.

In Nimmala’s 53 games at Single-A to finish the 2024 season, he hit .265 with 13 home runs and an .895 OPS, that unique swing with its high finish working wonders as he consistently drove the ball in the air. So many top prospects soar through the Minor Leagues without experiencing failure, which leaves an unknown variable for the biggest stage. Trying to make true adjustments for the first time against Aaron Judge or Tarik Skubal? Good luck.

The Blue Jays still have more advanced prospects with serious upside, most notably No. 2 prospect Orelvis Martinez, who lost much of this season to an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. Martinez will be one of the biggest stories in camp come spring, but when we start to look a couple of years down the line -- beyond Guerrero and Bichette’s current contracts -- Nimmala is already positioning himself as a player who could climb the Top 100 list and become a potential piece of this franchise’s core.

Triple-A Buffalo Bisons: OF Alan Roden (No. 13)
Roden carried the reputation of an on-base machine into this season, which has held true. Most encouraging has been his 14 home runs, including seven with a .493 slugging percentage since his midseason promotion to Buffalo. This leaves him with a .389 on-base percentage and an .853 OPS between both levels this season, positioning Roden well to compete for a job next spring. Hitting for power will determine whether Roden can be an everyday player in the big leagues, but this organization has long struggled to develop outfielders, so he’ll have every opportunity.

Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats: LHP Adam Macko (No. 9)
Macko has been building back up after an IL stint earlier this season, and he returned to Double-A on Wednesday, when he allowed six runs over four innings. Macko has posted a 4.87 ERA over 81 1/3 innings with New Hampshire this season, but at his best, his talent is still tantalizing. He’s a breakout candidate for next spring if he can stay healthy.

High-A Vancouver: LHP Kendry Rojas (No. 12)
What a run for Rojas. He’s put up a 2.43 ERA over 55 2/3 innings in High-A, and his stuff has really popped. Getting Rojas up to a full starter’s workload is still a challenge, but regardless of which role he ends up in long-term, Toronto has some serious upside to work with. Keep Rojas’ name in mind for spring.

Single-A Dunedin: 3B Sean Keys (No. 25)
Keys, the Blue Jays’ fourth-round pick this summer, is off to a fine start in pro ball. He hit .293 with an .829 OPS across 22 games in Single-A, and while that’s not much of a snapshot, Keys is an “analytics darling” who projects to have a strong plate approach.