Answering questions about the updated Top 100

Sunday night brought a fresh version of the MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects rankings.

Earlier that day, any player who began 2023 on a Major League Opening Day roster with zero MLB experience and stuck there exceeded the 45-day threshold of prospect eligibility. That didn’t mean any Top 100 graduations this time around -- Anthony Volpe already lost eligibility via at-bats, and Jordan Walker was in Triple-A after opening in St. Louis -- but the day brought a good opportunity to make some market corrections to our most notable prospect list.

One thing that’s important to understand about in-season adjustments is that they’re snapshots in time. While we consider our rankings based on long-term projections, we’re still getting loads of new information on these players once the season begins. So how the alterations look now might be different from the ones we could have done at the end of April, and they’ll certainly be different than our next edition slated to come out in late June. We acknowledge more flux will be coming as more games are played and prospects prove that their breakouts or downturns are even more real over larger samples.

But for now, this is how we see things.

That said, when the new Top 100 went live Sunday night, loads of questions flooded in about certain players. So in today’s newsletter, let’s tackle some of the most frequent subjects of those questions one at a time.

Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles (No. 3): Last year’s No. 1 overall pick has already been promoted to High-A in the second month of his age-19 season and has been rather productive there, entering the week with a .309/.449/.491 line over 16 games while walking and striking out in equal measure (14 times each). Holliday has been pushed aggressively by Baltimore ever since he signed, and he keeps answering the bell with an advanced approach, above-average power and solid defense at short. There’s a legit case he's No. 1 overall right now. Again, this is a snapshot, so we slipped him behind an outfielder with MLB experience and a long history of hitting (Walker) and a similarly-aged and tooled-up phenom who has already reached Double-A in Jackson Chourio. Both of them have less forward momentum than Holliday though, so his case for No. 1 could be even stronger by our next update.

Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B, Reds (No. 4): That is, unless De La Cruz speeds past Holliday as a top talent with more MLB proximity. The Reds infielder has the most exciting package of tools in the Minors with power, speed and throwing ability that could all reach near the top of the scale at their peak. He’ll still be 21 for all the 2023 season but so far at Triple-A, he’s looked like a player who could see Cincinnati soon with some of the best exit velocities and throws at the level. It all comes down to the bat, and there’s some good news there. The switch-hitter had struck out at least 30 percent of the time at every full-season stop entering 2023, but that K rate sits at 27.3 percent entering this week. Meanwhile, his walk rate has jumped from 7.7 at Double-A to 11.7 this year. Since De La Cruz only has 103 Triple-A plate appearances, there’s still time for him to get closer to career norms, so we were a little hesitant this time around. If the improvements hold, the questions are quieter, and the talent is oh so loud.

Junior Caminero, INF, Rays (No. 60): The 19-year-old was our highest climber, jumping 36 spots from No. 96 to 60 in the update, and he still has a big up arrow next to his name. Already thought to be a potential above-average hitter with plus pop, Caminero has hit .367/.420/.706 with eight homers and 18 total extra-base hits through 27 games in an aggressive assignment to High-A Bowling Green. There are only four 19-year-olds that meet the qualifying standard in High-A this season, and none of the other three have an OPS above .670. Caminero’s stands at 1.127. The Rays phenom still only has 53 games above Rookie-ball, and he still has some defensive growing pains at third and short. There will be fewer concerns if he keeps mashing like this, and he might jump to Double-A before our next update. Caminero’s rise takes him here for now, but his stay outside the Top 50, or even Top 25, might be a short one.

Jacob Berry, 3B, Marlins (No. 71): Berry is very much a prospect with the arrow pointing the other way. Last year’s No. 6 overall pick needs to hit, as he’s a subpar defender at third. And so far he isn’t doing that, with a .174/.192/.326 line, two homers and only two walks (vs. 26 strikeouts) in 22 games at High-A Beloit. We dropped him 20 places but kept him in the Top 100 because of his longer track record of performing in college at both Arizona and LSU, no small schools, and we also cut him a little slack as a first-full-season player getting used to the rigors of the Minors in a colder Midwest League environment in April and May. That’s as long as the leash will get, however, and Berry will need to warm up with the weather to hold onto his spot.

Mason Miller, RHP, Athletics (No. 97): On one hand, it’s been exciting to see Miller fireball his way to the Majors with only 28 2/3 innings under his belt. On the other, fans saw his triple-digit fastball and impressive slider and cutter and thought he’d jump significantly higher in the Top 100 update. It all comes down to health here. Miller missed significant time in 2022 with a right shoulder issue and was just placed on the injured list with a right forearm strain. As electric as the stuff might be, the A’s right-hander needs to prove he can stick in a rotation long-term before we go fully in.