Phils top pitching prospect Painter takes big step toward 2025 rotation

NEW YORK -- The Phillies struggled to find a reliable No. 5 starter in the final months of the 2024 season.

They hope it isn’t an issue next year.

The Phillies think Andrew Painter will be a candidate at some point. The 21-year-old is Philadelphia’s No. 1 pitching prospect and the No. 32 prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. He has not pitched in a game since Spring Training 2023 because of a right elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery in July 2023. But Painter has fared well in his rehab, and he will fly to Arizona on Tuesday to join the Glendale Desert Dogs in the Arizona Fall League.

Painter is scheduled to pitch two innings in a start on Saturday, and the Phillies hope he pitches 20 innings by the end of the AFL season, building up to three innings per start.

“I think he’s definitely ready for this step,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said on Monday afternoon at Citi Field. “People who have seen him throw say he hasn’t missed a beat. In fact, when I got my report on him, one time I said, ‘Hey, I hope we know that we don’t have to throw 100 [mph] already.’ You know? It’s upper-90s. But he just does it. He’s not overthrowing.”

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If everything goes well, the Phillies are looking forward to seeing what he can do next year.

“I do think he’ll be pitching at the big league level at some point in `25,” Dombrowski said.

It is a step-by-step process, of course. Painter’s health will be monitored closely in the AFL by the Phillies athletic training staff and Aaron Barrett, who is their Minor League rehab pitching coordinator.

“He’s had no pain,” Dombrowski said about Painter. “Now it’s one of those things, he doesn’t have any pain, but just like any other pitcher, there’s going to be a time when he feels stiff. He’s going to have to be worked on. He’s going to have to work through those types of things. But it’s a great relief for him, it’s a great relief for us.”

After the AFL, the Phillies will decide Painter’s next steps.

“We’re going to have to figure out how we get him to pitch next year,” Dombrowski said. “Because he’ll still be limited with the number of innings he can pitch. I don’t know the exact number of innings at this point. We haven’t discussed that, but he’s not going to be able to go out there like a big league starter and pitch every five or six days and pitch a whole season and have 180 innings. He’s going to be limited, much more than that.

“So how do we do that? Do we start pitching him in games later? Do we start pitching him at the Minor Leagues once a week and limit the innings? Could he pitch here? Yes, but it also depends how he does.”

Is there any scenario where he starts next season with the Phillies? Sure, anything is possible. But it also seems highly unlikely given the fact that Painter hasn’t pitched regularly since 2022.

“Do we want him to do that?” Dombrowski said. “Because if he does that then he won’t be pitching in September because of the limits. So how we approach all that … could he do it? Yes. Could he physically be capable? Yes. But I don’t know that we think that would be the best thing. And we said before, let’s get to this point, let’s let him go out and throw. Let’s see how he does.”

But Saturday is a big day. Painter wanted to get on the mound and face hitters before he heads into the offseason.

He wanted that peace of mind.

“They said he’s ready to go,” Dombrowski said.