How did the Padres fare with Soto deals?

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The Padres have pulled off their fair share of blockbusters over the years. But I don't think it's hyperbole to say Juan Soto was involved in two of the most consequential trades in club history -- and perhaps recent baseball history.

It's not every day you trade for a future Hall of Famer. It's not every day you trade one away.

The Padres welcome Soto back to San Diego this weekend, when the Yankees come to town for a three-game series. There’s not quite enough hindsight to close the book on either trade. But -- why not? -- I decided to relitigate them anyway:

August 2022: Soto from Nationals to the Padres

What the Padres gave up: A lot. CJ Abrams is one of the sport’s best young shortstops. MacKenzie Gore is a reliable mid-rotation starter -- with room to grow. James Wood might end up being the true prize, currently MLB Pipeline’s No. 5 overall prospect. Fellow prospects Jarlin Susana and Robert Hassell went to Washington as well. We knew it at the time, and it's been reinforced since: The Padres paid a steep price to acquire Soto.

What they got: Soto -- 2 1/2 years of him, anyway. (Plus, half a season of Josh Bell.) A quick refresher on Soto's time in San Diego: He struggled upon his arrival, but was outstanding in the postseason, authoring pivotal hits in all three series. In 2023, Soto finished sixth in the National League MVP voting with a .275/.410/.519 slash line while playing 162 games.

Verdict: This one is going to sting -- and probably for a while. But it doesn't mean the Padres' process was wrong. They got what they needed from Soto -- an excellent 2022 postseason and one of the best offensive seasons in baseball in '23. But ...

December 2023: Soto to the Yankees

What the Padres gave up: One season of Soto, who is playing at an MVP level, slashing .313/.409/.569. There’s no getting around it, the Padres gave up one of the best players in baseball this year. (They also parted with Trent Grisham, whose 2024 has been poor.)

What they got: Not nearly as much as they gave up to acquire Soto. But the Padres filled their biggest need in 2024 (and beyond): starting pitching. They landed Michael King, a rotation staple. They also landed Drew Thorpe, the prize prospect sent to Chicago in the Dylan Cease deal. Cease and King are under team control for an additional season. Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are also useful pieces -- though, realistically, their impact has been minimal when we're talking about a trade involving an MVP candidate. Kyle Higashioka's season has been as poor as Grisham's, albeit at half the price.

Verdict: I'm not comfortable saying the Padres were winners in this trade. They traded a potential MVP. But look at it this way: Had they not traded Soto, where would they be? For one, they'd be bereft of starting pitching. For another, they'd have been without the $31 million they freed up -- salary used, in part, to help acquire Cease and Luis Arraez. (And, maybe, an addition at the Trade Deadline, too?) It’s been pointed out that the Yankees got exactly what they needed in that trade. You know what? I think the Padres did, too.

Final thoughts

I don’t think the popular narrative is the correct one. Sure, San Diego didn’t win a pennant with Soto. But I say the club's shortcomings were elsewhere. The Padres traded for Soto precisely when they needed to trade for Soto. Then, they traded him precisely when they needed to trade him, considering he was unlikely to re-sign.

Again, the failures were elsewhere. First, the 2022 NL Championship Series. Soto delivered pivotal home runs in Games 4 and 5. The Padres lost both games for reasons that had nothing to do with him -- managerial decisions, a roster without enough starting-pitching depth, a back-end of the bullpen with a limited closer.

Then came the '23 season. Again, Soto delivered. The Padres, as a whole, underperformed. Their other stars struggled. The fringes of their roster were sub-par. General manager A.J. Preller swung and missed at the Trade Deadline.

As the sport's history is written, San Diego might be viewed as being on the short end of both Soto trades. I'll disagree, to an extent. The Padres did fine in those trades. They simply didn’t win enough of their ancillary moves to make the first trade count -- or to avoid falling into a position where the second trade was necessary.