Who stands to gain from ALDS Game 2 rainout?

Thanks to Thursday’s rainout following Wednesday’s scheduled day off, the Yankees and Guardians find themselves in a situation you just about never see in the postseason: If the American League Division Series goes a full five games, then they’ll be required to play games on four consecutive days, Friday through Monday.

That’s not a terribly unusual circumstance in the regular season, when teams squeeze 162 games into about 180 days. But in the postseason? It’s all but unheard of in 21st-century baseball, as regular days off and travel days allow teams to use their best relievers more aggressively.

(Or mostly unheard of, anyway, because 2020 continues to screw up our records. While the Dodgers and Braves did play a full seven-game NLCS that year without a day off, that was all at a neutral site in Texas where travel was not required. That season aside, it’s been more than a decade since two teams played on four consecutive days against one another in one series, dating back to the 2011 ALCS, when the Tigers and Rangers had Game 2 in Texas pushed back a day by weather, then played Games 3, 4, and 5 in Detroit. Before that, it hadn’t happened since Game 1 of the 2006 NLCS was postponed.)

All of which means that for the Yankees and Guardians, there are some real repercussions here. Consider how it’s going to break down for each team.

1) You’ll likely have to use a fourth starter.

With days off after Games 1 and 3, there was a version of this where both teams could get through the series with just three starters (that’s Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino for New York; Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie for Cleveland), depending on how long it went and how aggressive each manager was willing to be on short rest.

For Sunday’s Game 4, you could have brought back your Game 1 starters on short rest. For Monday’s Game 5, you could have done the same with your Game 2 starters. But now, with Game 2 pushed back a day, your Game 2 starter would be going on two days rest, which just won’t do. That means that fourth starters – likely Jameson Taillon for New York and Aaron Civale for Cleveland – would be lined up for Game 5.

Given that the teams would have played three straight days before that potential Game 5, a bullpen game probably wouldn’t be an option – though no one would expect either Taillon or Civale to work deep into the game. If anything, this might hurt both sides in the bullpen on Friday or Saturday, when Taillon or Civale might otherwise have been available in relief, and now may need to be held back for a start.

Is there an advantage here? Probably not a big one over one or two times through the order, which is all you’d get in a Game 5. But over the final three months of the season, Civale (.548 OPS) was better than Taillon (.636 OPS) the first two times through the order. Plus, Civale’s 4.92 ERA is colored by a bloated 7.84 mark in seven starts before a May injury; he’s posted a 3.55 in 13 starts since. It’s close, but we’ll call that a mild edge for the Guardians.

2) Your Game 2 starters (Bieber and Cortes) can’t start Game 5.

Since Cleveland was the third-best division winner, they had to face Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round, which means their ace, Bieber, couldn’t start Game 1 of this series. If his Game 2 start had taken place on Thursday, as originally planned, he could have come back on three days rest for Monday’s Game 5. So, while New York’s ace, Cole, will be fully-rested for a Game 4 start, Cleveland’s ace might be only available for a brief relief stint in Game 5 – if at all.

Is there an advantage here? At first glance, it seems like the Yankees do have one, but let's dig a little deeper.

In reality, the Yankees have the same issue with their Game 2 starter. Cortes has had an excellent year, though most wouldn’t take him over Bieber. But importantly, he’s the only left-handed Yankees starter … and Cleveland had baseball’s third-weakest offense (.646 OPS) against lefty pitching this year, ahead of only the punchless A’s and Marlins. Steven Kwan, for example, had an .811 OPS against righties, but a mere .639 against lefties.

You saw that in action when Cortes faced the Guardians in the regular season, holding them to a mere .100/.143/.250 line, or four hits and two walks in 42 plate appearances. Though Cortes has never before started on short rest after making a previous start, you can see why they’d want more Cortes, not less. Now they can’t.

“If [Cortes] goes Friday, you know, hopefully we're not in a Game 5 situation, but if we are, we'll see,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said earlier this week. “I mean, he would maybe be in play, but I wouldn't … not necessarily as a traditional starter.”

Getting only one start from Bieber is a big problem for Cleveland. But getting only one start from their lone lefty starter is a big problem for the Yankees, too. So let’s review our opinion on this one.

Is there an advantage here? Maybe not.

3) Less Emmanuel Clase in big spots.

After Game 1, the bullpens would have had a day off to rest. After Game 2, they’d have had another one. If not fully rested, they’d have been in great shape for three games in three days, if that’s how it would have played out.

But now? Both clubs will be fully rested, after two days off, headed into Friday’s Game 3. The potential of four straight days of games, however, means that the managers will have to dip a little deeper into their bullpens. That affects both teams equally, but (given the uncertainty over Clay Holmes’ health), Cleveland has the best reliever available in Clase, and now he’ll be just a little less available.

Clase faced 271 batters this year, plus seven more in the Wild Card round. He allowed exactly nine extra-base hits. Only one pitcher who faced at least 250 pitchers allowed a lower slugging percentage. He’s all but impossible to square up, and you could have used him in Games 1, 2, and 3 without needing to use him on back-to-back days – which would leave him available for one or both of Games 4 and 5, too.

Now? Guardians manager Terry Francona will need to be a little more judicious in his usage of Clase. Boone will have to do the same with his own bullpen, but Boone might not have a weapon like Clase in the first place. That’s a big deal when, ideally, Clase would be able to face Aaron Judge in the late innings as much as possible.

Is there an advantage here? Less Clase? More joy for the Yankees.

But again, hang on a second.

The Guardians might have the best reliever in the series, and they might get less from him. But they also have the best bullpen in the series, too, and full-season team stats don’t matter much now, because it’s not like the Yankees will have Michael King, or Chad Green, or Aroldis Chapman, or Scott Effross. Cleveland doesn’t have Nick Sandlin or Bryan Shaw.

If we just look at the eight primary relievers in the series – excluding Taillon and Civale – then the Guardians have the edge in most every way.

Guardians: 2.91 ERA, .216/.232/.325 27%K 8%BB

Yankees: 3.34 ERA, .248/.319/.365 21%K 8%BB

In fact, even if you remove Clase from the Cleveland bullpen, the remaining Guardians are superior to the remaining Yankees. And it’s not like the Guardians won’t get any Clase anyway. Just less.

Is there an advantage here? The bullpen with more good pitchers gets the edge, especially if Game 5 becomes an empty-the-pen game. That bullpen is Cleveland’s.

Ultimately, the two teams will play the same schedule in the same ballparks at the same time. There’s only so much of an advantage a one-day delay can really provide either side. But given that Cleveland’s bullpen is deeper, and that the Yankees lose a major edge by featuring less left-handed starting pitching, and that the “throw your 4th starter for a dozen batters or so” requirement is at worst a draw but likely a small Cleveland advantage … well, the one-day delay isn’t going to decide the series. But it does seem to favor the Guardians.

Looking ahead, there’s one more thing, too.

For whichever team advances, this isn’t the last time they’ll have to deal with these concerns. When the ALCS arrives, there’s a day off after the first two games. The final five games – Games 3 through 7, if necessary – would be scheduled on five consecutive days. If it goes that long, it would be the first (non-2020) occurrence of five straight postseason games within one series since the 2004 ALCS, when Game 2 was washed out and Games 3 through 7 were played consecutively.

You might remember that series for Boston’s historic 3-0 series comeback on their way to winning their first World Series in 86 years. You might also remember who was managing the Red Sox at that time, someone who would have experience with these situations. It was, of course … Terry Francona.