7 reasons the AL East is the must-see division

The American League East standings are a reminder why we love the opening week of the MLB season. The Rays, Orioles and Blue Jays have gobs of youth and optimism on their side, but is that enough to scramble a division race we thought we had figured out? That’s the fun part of baseball.

Do we expect the Red Sox and Yankees to finish closer to last than first? No, we do not. But one lesson we’ve learned through the years is that confidence is important for upstart clubs, and it can grow exponentially with a taste of April success.

We may not be redoing our AL East predictions at this point, but there are lots of reasons to see it as baseball’s most compelling division.

1. The Red Sox and Yankees appear vulnerable.

With that, all the math changes. We still believe both Boston and New York will end up in the postseason, but it’s a bit less clear than before. The Red Sox took a "take it slow" approach to preparing their starters during Spring Training, and that’s smart considering how hard they were pushed during the postseason. Besides, Boston never expected to finish the first week with its starters sporting a 9.08 ERA through its first eight games, which ranks last in the Majors entering play on Friday. Only Chris Sale’s diminished velocity is a cause for long-term concern. Now about the Yankees...

2. Stop the season and let the Yankees catch their breath.

New York prides itself on organizational depth, and all of it is being tested with about $100 million in payroll on the injured list. Yankees fans who wanted to see more of the likes of Clint Frazier, Domingo Germán and Tyler Wade are getting their wish. The good news is that almost all the injured players are expected back within a few weeks. Until then, keep the faith, Yankee fans.

3. Rays pitching is good enough to upend the race, and when they start to hit, watch out.

Tampa Bay has allowed 11 runs in five games. That’s not a typo: 11 runs, five games. The Rays' bullpen enters play on Friday having given up two runs in 28 innings. When a team pitches this way, it’s going to be in the postseason conversation. Since Opening Day, Tampa Bay has been ahead or tied after 51 of 56 innings. In addition, the Rays have undergone a massive lineup overhaul since the beginning of last season, and they believe that Tommy Pham, Avisaíl García, Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe, among others, will make them a good offensive team.

4. Young players can change the projections almost overnight.

Here’s the thing that can spin the division race on its head: youth. It's easily spotted up and down the rosters of the Blue Jays, Orioles and Rays. The Orioles got 6 2/3 no-hit innings from 25-year-old David Hess this week. Most nights, their lineup includes Cedric Mullins, Rio Ruiz, Richie Martin, Renato Núñez and Dwight Smith Jr., who is the oldest of the bunch at 26 years old. Only Nunez has ever had 200 plate appearances in a Major League season. In Toronto, three starters -- Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and rookie Trent Thornton -- have been excellent. Stroman is 28, Sanchez 26 and Thornton 25. Tampa Bay has four regulars under the age of 25.

5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could tighten the race all by himself.

He’s the No. 1 prospect in the game, according to MLB Pipeline, and virtually every scout who has seen him believes Guerrero is the kind of generational talent that can change the arc of an entire franchise, and by extension, a division. A strained oblique sustained at the end of Spring Training could delay his debut until May, though. Also on the horizon for Toronto is shortstop Bo Bichette, MLB Pipeline's No. 11 overall prospect, who had a tremendous spring and could debut sooner rather than later.

6. Who knows what the Orioles are capable of?

After losing 115 games in 2018, Baltimore has invested in giving a lot of its youth a chance to play, and that could make the O's both interesting and potentially dangerous to the rest of the AL East. Opening the season by winning four of six on the road against the Yankees and Blue Jays to start the season is an endorsement of all the positive energy that rookie manager Brandon Hyde and his staff have brought to the job.

7. Which team is most likely to make an impact trade?

This could be where the Rays have a significant advantage. They have a deep farm system and all kinds of financial flexibility. If the division is decided by action at the Trade Deadline, Tampa Bay has more cards to play than anyone. The Yankees probably have enough prospects to make a deal, and money is almost never a factor for them. The Red Sox have a thinner farm system and have luxury-tax concerns, while the Blue Jays and O’s are still in a selling mode to clear room for kids.