Biggest questions for AL Central teams

We come to you bearing excellent news: Baseball season is close -- closer than you think -- and we can prove it. Our season preview series, division-by-division every week, has already begun, and when we are done, the season will be here. That’s soon.

So far, we have looked at the American League East and the National League West. Today, we tackle the American League Central. Our previews will look at four pressing questions for each club heading into the 2021 season. At the end, we'll make some actual predictions on the final standings -- predictions that are unassailable and so obviously ironclad that we're a little worried you won't even bother to watch the actual games once you read them. We are willing to assume such a risk.

Let's take a team-by-team look at the biggest questions in the AL Central this season.

INDIANS

1) Which pitcher comes out of nowhere?

Here are Shane Bieber's prospect rankings from 2016, the year Cleveland drafted him, to 2018, the year he lost his rookie status:

2016: 26th

2017: 11th

That is not 26th and 11th in baseball: That is 26th and 11th on Cleveland. And yet here he is, the defending Cy Young winner and as dominant a pitcher as you will find in baseball. Cleveland has a way of producing guys like this, and with Carlos Carrasco gone, they probably need to get out and find themselves a couple more. Triston McKenzie could reach those levels this year, but there’s always someone lurking around there for Cleveland. This team rises and falls with its starting pitching. Let’s see what they can rustle up.

2) Can José Ramírez be an MVP candidate again?

It remains remarkable that José Ramírez came out of nowhere to become one of the best hitters in baseball, then had one of the worst first halves of a season imaginable in 2019, then was a monster down the stretch and then darned-near won the MVP last year. It seems very exhausting to have such swings. Ramírez doesn’t have Francisco Lindor around as a buffer anymore, and it’s tough to imagine competitors won’t pitch around him to face Eddie Rosario or Franmil Reyes, but they need him more than ever. He not only needs to not fall back again; he needs to reach a new level.

3) How much better is the outfield?

Eddie Rosario is at least a start to fill out the most chronically underfed outfield in all of competitive baseball, but it remains just a start. Who else is going to play out there? Oscar Mercado could get another shot after a dreadful 2020, but it’s a big roulette wheel otherwise, like always. I know this is woefully familiar at this point, but it remains amazing that Cleveland has this much outfield trouble every season.

4) What’s the identity of this team post-Lindor?

For the first time since 2011, when Cleveland took him with the eighth overall pick in the Draft, Francisco Lindor is not central to everything this franchise does. He was the phenom, he was the dazzling rookie star, he was the MVP candidate, he was the guy who came this close to winning them that elusive World Series. And now he’s gone, off to Queens with Carrasco. So what is Cleveland now? With the walls of the division closing in, they are running out of time to find out.

ROYALS

1) Is Sal Perez a superstar?

Not many people noticed, because why would you pay that much attention to the Royals in late September, but Salvador Perez was an absolute monster down the stretch last year. He was basically a less-patient Barry Bonds over the Royals’ final 15 games: .371/.391/.806. Perez missed all of 2019 and played like a guy who was desperate to get back on the field the second half of last season. This is the last year of his five-year contract signed before the 2017 season, and if he hits like that again, the lone Royal left from the World Series team (Greg Holland and Wade Davis left and came back) could be one of the top free agents on the market heading into 2022. And he’s still only 30 years old.

2) Can the additions spark a movement?

You have to credit the Kansas City brass this year. It’s not entirely clear there is an opening for the Royals to contend in 2021, but they built up their roster like there is, adding Michael Taylor, Andrew Benintendi and Carlos Santana to muscle up on offense. Suddenly that’s a formidable lineup, particularly with Whit Merrifield atop the order and Jorge Soler in the middle of it. None of those deals are particularly onerous, but that actually speaks to the Royals’ favor: They took advantage of the market when other teams didn’t. You want to see it pay off for them.

3) Which young pitchers step up?

There are pitchers coming for the Royals: Both Daniel Lynch and Asa Lacy are among the top 30 prospects in baseball. But they aren’t in the rotation right now and that’s a problem, because even with the addition of Mike Minor, this might be the worst rotation in the division. Brad Keller has had his moments, and Danny Duffy really might end up being buried a Royal after all, but this looks like a team that’s going to have to score a ton of runs to win. And as much as I like the new additions, the offense isn’t necessarily equipped for that.

4) Are they trying to win now?

That is the question for the Royals, right? They’ve been a little bit more aggressive than the similarly reconstructing Tigers, and their additions would seem to imply that they think they are close. But are they close? You need a lot of things to fall perfect for the Royals to contend this year. And considering how old this lineup is -- Perez, Merrifield, Soler, and Hunter Dozier will all be at least 30 by Opening Day 2022 -- you have to wonder what exactly the plan is here. The Royals will be more fun to watch in 2021, and sort of a pain to play. But is this team going to the playoffs? And if not … what is all this activity for?

TIGERS

1) Do any of the offensive additions help?

The Tigers made their fair share of offensive additions as well, but they were considerably more modest: Robbie Grossman, Wilson Ramos, Nomar Mazara, Renato Núñez. Good for them, and Grossman is a particularly savvy pickup. But this offense doesn’t look much better than it did last year, regardless. They’re moving around some pieces, but they still land in the same place.

2) Does Mize rise up?

"His pitches are elite across the board," his new manager said, and who wouldn’t be excited to have Casey Mize potentially in their rotation? Of course, one of the reasons A.J. Hinch may be saying that is because he is in fact a new manager and therefore did not see Mize pitch last year, when he made seven starts and had a 6.99 ERA. Mize obviously has incredible stuff, and there’s clear Lucas Giolito (6.13 ERA in 32 starts in 2018) energy here. But he has to make it happen. Tigers fans desperate for something to feel warm and fuzzy about would love to see it.

3) How does Miggy look?

Here is your reminder that Miguel Cabrera remains signed to a $30 million-per-year contract through 2023, a deal that very well might last through 2025. He’ll be 38 in a month and a half. So how’s he doing? His 2020 was an improvement on his 2019, with a lower on-base and batting average but a lot more power. He’s now 13 homers away from 500, and he’s more likely to reach that milestone than 3,000 hits (he’s 134 short there; he’s got a chance). But in the present, he’s an average hitter who is unplayable in the field anymore. You’ll tell your grandkids you saw Miggy play one day. But you’ll probably pick a different year that you say you saw him than this one.

4) Everybody OK with another year of this?

The Tigers’ rebuild continues apace, and the hiring of Hinch, for all his Astros baggage, is at least a sign that they see some sort of competitive window opening at some point. But when? They look clearly like the worst team in this division, and arguably behind the Royals moving forward. Maybe Cleveland collapses, but Chicago and Minnesota are not going anywhere. The Tigers haven’t won a postseason game since 2013, a team that featured Torii Hunter, Prince Fielder and Al Alburquerque. How much more patience do Detroit fans have?

TWINS

1) Is there enough in the rotation?

Kenta Maeda was an absolute revelation for the Twins last season, and José Berríos sure seems primed to finally be the pitcher the Twins have waited patiently for him to become his entire (short) career. But are we sure this rotation is division-winning deep enough? Michael Pineda has been a nice comeback story, but he certainly doesn’t seem like a pitcher you feel comfortable asking to take 30-plus starts, and additions J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker are low-risk, decent-reward pitchers you turn to when you don’t have anyone else you trust. The division has started to rise up beneath the Twins, and there are teams that will knock around the back half of your rotation here. Do the Twins have enough to last the year?

2) Can Josh Donaldson hang in the lineup?

It sure was exciting when the Twins signed Josh Donaldson last year, wasn’t it? After proving he could stay healthy for (most) of a full season in Atlanta, Donaldson came to Minnesota as the bringer of rain for a team loaded with bombers. But he was the old Donaldson in 2020: terrific when in the lineup, but rarely in the lineup. He missed half the games in 2020, and now he’s a 35-year-old who is signed for three more years, counting this one. Donaldson seemed a smart, tactical add before last season. Now he’s another old guy in this lineup. And an expensive one. He gives the Twins a higher ceiling, just like he did last year. But he doesn’t do much for anybody if he’s on the injured list.

3) Can Buxton stay healthy?

Speaking of healthy guys, how about Byron Buxton? The second overall pick from the 2012 Draft is infamous for missing games -- and for how much worse the Twins are without him -- but for only the second time in his career in 2020, he played in the vast majority of the Twins’ games, 39 out of 60. The Twins were rewarded with the best offensive numbers of Buxton’s career, and the second time in his career he received MVP votes. (Both times are the only two times he played the vast majority of games.) Of course, even 2020 had troubles: a foot sprain and a concussion sidelined him and he ultimately only pinch-ran in the Wild Card Series. It may be too much to ask for him to play 140 games again (even though he’s only 26). But if they can get 130 games out of him, considering how much better they play with him in the lineup, they just might win this division with that, right there. But let’s get him through Spring Training without any mishaps first.

4) Does anything matter until October?

Yeah, all told, this is sort of the same preview we could have made last year. The Twins are good! They’re very good! But none of it makes a lick of a difference if they roll over in October like they have now for a shocking 18 consecutive games. The rest of the division is catching up with them, particularly the White Sox. They might not have that many postseason opportunities remaining. If they make it to the postseason and get swept again, how much belief will Twins fans have in this team in 2022? How much will anyone?

WHITE SOX

1) Does Robert explode?

To look at Luis Robert is to see a sort of baseball perfection: He looks specifically built to play, and dominate, this game. But after his incredible start, Robert fell off the table in September and October, hitting just .136 with one homer in his final 23 games. (He did have four hits and a homer in the Wild Card Series against Oakland.) Robert is still a shining star, but he now has to adjust for an entire season. Baseball’s past is littered with physical marvels who never quite figured out how to transfer all that skill and talent into this weird, cerebral game. Robert is young and has plenty of time. But the team would like to win now.

2) Is Moncada a star, or not?

First off, you’re not going to convince me that this guy can’t do anything. Add Yoán Moncada to the Wayman Tisdale/Damian Lillard/Bernie Williams school of athletes with legitimate musical talent. But he’s still better at baseball. The former phenom prospect seemed prime to take over baseball last year after his terrific 2019, but he never quite got it going during pandemic ball: He lost all the batting-average gains he made that season but kept striking out as much. He might not quite be the guy who could have approached 200 hits like he did in 2019, but he’s not what he was last year either. Is he a backup member among the incredible band of this team? Or is he the frontman?

3) Does the rotation have enough?

The addition of Lance Lynn is the sort of smart move that can win you a pennant. He has been one of the best, most unappreciated pitchers in baseball for three years now, and his durability is particularly valuable in a season like this one. He’s a perfect complement to Lucas Giolito, and he might even be better. But there are questions everywhere else. Dallas Keuchel was effective last year, but you’re never truly going to trust a guy who doesn’t throw any harder than he does, at least in the year 2021. Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon have been in the system a long time and have had some success, but the White Sox are counting on them to carry a big load this year. It sure would be nice if Michael Kopech is ready to go after two years off. He might be the biggest X-factor in this whole division.

4) So … let’s talk about La Russa.

It really is amazing that Tony La Russa is back managing again. The last game he managed, top pitching prospect Garrett Crochet was 12. La Russa brings with him that same rusty-knife edge he has had his entire career, and there might not be anyone in baseball history who handles losing worse than he does. But is that going to rest well with a team as young and exciting as this one? There is no bigger bet in sports this year than handing over this team to that guy. I’m actually optimistic on TLR: For all that comes with him, few have been better at putting their teams in position to win every single day. But the blowup potential here is off the charts.

One man’s prediction (assuming no major roster changes):

White Sox: 93-69
Twins: 89-73
Indians: 79-83
Royals: 74-88
Tigers: 67-95