Momentum swings in key AB for Mariners

HOUSTON -- Even on a night where Justin Verlander racked up a season-high 12 strikeouts and passed John Smoltz for 17th on the all-time strikeouts list, the Mariners had chances to strike on Tuesday. None was more notable than with the bases loaded in the eighth inning, pitting two players who were swapped for each other ahead of last year’s Trade Deadline.

Abraham Toro vs. Rafael Montero, with Seattle in striking distance, down by one.

Montero was on the ropes, struggling to find the strike zone, and Toro was eager to deliver against his former team and the 30,583 fans in attendance at Minute Maid Park. Hacking at a first-pitch fastball inside, Toro sliced a liner just narrowly into foul territory that would’ve plated at least two, possibly three. Then, four pitches later, Seattle’s struggling infielder grounded into an inning-ending double play and towards a 4-1 defeat.

Yordan Alvarez hit a two-run homer the bottom half of the inning to give the Astros some insurance, but the Mariners were on the Astros’ tail all the way to the end.

“When I hit it, I thought it was going to at least hit the line,” Toro said. “But that’s just part of the game. He’s got a slider in and changeup away, so I was just trying to hit it to the middle of the field. Just watching the scouting report, he’s got good stuff, so I didn’t want to overswing or anything. You always want to score some runs, and it’s frustrating. But you’ve got to move on and hopefully get the win tomorrow.”

How much swing did that sequence carry? According to FanGraphs’ win-probability metric, the Mariners’ odds of winning went from 48% when Toro stepped to the plate to 13% after. It was, objectively and analytically, the highest-leverage moment of the game.

“If it's like three feet over, everybody is jumping up and down and we get a three-run double,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said. “It’s baseball. You’re going to continue to get chances. They made big pitches when they had to tonight when we had guys on base.”

Toro is now 2-for-24 since returning from the 10-day injured list with a left shoulder sprain last Wednesday and in an 0-for-18 stretch dating back to his game-winning triple in Baltimore last week, bringing his season slash line to .163/.219/.333 (.552 OPS). The Mariners have long been bullish on his above-average bat-to-ball skills, and he’s still trying to leverage those into tangible results.

When Toro swings, he makes contact 81.9% of the time, above the MLB average of 76.5%. His swing-and-miss rates are in the 85th percentile and his strikeout rate is in the 92nd, per Statcast. But more often than not, his contact results in an out -- such as the critical one on Tuesday -- evidenced by his .148 batting average on balls in play.

“I’m trying to go day to day,” Toro said. “Even though it’s been a little slow, I don’t try to see that as something negative. Every day is different, and there’s a new opportunity to help the team.”

Toro’s moment was the most glaring opportunity to strike on Tuesday, but there were others, too. In the fourth, Toro grounded into a force out with the bases loaded, though it brought home a run. Taylor Trammell immediately followed with an inning-ending strikeout to strand two. The right fielder also fanned with two on and two out in the sixth, finishing with four punchouts.

Those moments contributed to Seattle stranding nine baserunners for the 16th time, tied for an MLB high, bringing their season total to 400, also an MLB high. After breaking through with runners in scoring position for much of this productive road trip, they went 1-for-6 in such situations on Tuesday.

To be sure, they were again facing Verlander, the likely future Hall of Famer who has experienced a career renaissance in his return from Tommy John surgery. After serving up four homers to the Mariners just 11 days prior in Seattle, Verlander adjusted to an approach far more heavy on his secondary pitches, with 10 of his 12 strikeouts coming via his curve or slider.

That lack of run production against him put Chris Flexen on an all-too-familiar tightrope despite tossing seven strong innings. Flexen surrendered two runs in the fourth, but that proved decisive, as he’s now received one run or fewer of support in seven of his 11 starts this season.

All the while, Flexen has shown an upward trajectory after a tough start to 2022, especially against Houston. In three starts last year against the AL West foes, he had a 5.74 ERA in three outings, while in four starts this year, he has a 2.55 mark. Part of his success on Tuesday, he said, was the installation of a slider, which he opted for after using it while playing catch on Monday.

Though Tuesday’s game had remnants of the Mariners’ struggles at Minute Maid Park for the past four seasons, the chance to win their first series here since 2018 is still in front of them in the finale, with Logan Gilbert -- their pitcher of the year so far -- taking the hill.