Ace in waiting? Phils already have upgrade

PHILADELPHIA -- Everything is lining up for the Phillies to make a trade or two before the July 30 Trade Deadline.

They have the best record in baseball in July at 10-4. They trail the Mets by only two games in the National League East, and New York is vulnerable with Jacob deGrom and Francisco Lindor sidelined indefinitely because of injuries. Also, the Braves will play the rest of the season without superstar Ronald Acuña Jr., the Nationals are in a freefall and the Marlins no longer look like a thorn in the Phillies’ side.

Expect the Phillies to be connected to nearly every available closer and starter before July 30. They scouted Cole Hamels’ showcase on Friday in Texas. He is about a month away from joining a big league rotation, but word from Texas is that he could help a team. Is he the Hamels from 2008? No. But Hall of Fame general manager Pat Gillick loved to say that a marginal upgrade is still an upgrade. The Phillies could use a marginal upgrade to the rotation.

The biggest upgrade would be getting Aaron Nola right. He starts Tuesday night against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Nola missed his last turn in the rotation because he was placed on the COVID-19 injured list. But before that, he posted a 6.00 ERA in his previous seven starts. His 4.53 ERA this season ranks 56th out of 63 qualified starters.

The Phillies have been trying to figure out what’s wrong.

“He did some homework, we did some homework, we kind of got together and saw some things,” Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham said Saturday. “I don’t think they’re big things. But small things do create big things in the delivery. I can tell you that he’s in a great spot. It’s as good as I’ve seen him move, and it’s really similar to years past. I think it flows through the delivery with him. If you feel good with your delivery, if you feel good with what you're doing to deliver the ball -- the ball is more apt to listen, because there's belief there.

“He’s a very unique mover. It’s a very unique delivery. There’s a lot of tempo, a lot of rhythm to it. There's a lot of pieces. But there's subtle differences. There’s also an element of that guy [from] three, four years ago, he doesn't really exist anymore, right? So, you’re always adapting. Your body's different. So, it's kind of acknowledging what he was when he was running his best. And does that make sense now, relative to how he moves -- whether it's mobility, strength -- there's a lot of components. But that's where the training staff, the athletic staff really help kind of collaborate. Yeah, and I think we're onto something.”

The Phillies believe Nola has been a bit unlucky, too.

Certain numbers align with that assessment. The differential between his 4.53 ERA and 3.86 xERA is the 43rd highest out of 284 qualified pitchers, according to Statcast. The differential between his .314 wOBA and .303 xwOBA ranks 73rd.

“He would say that he wants to pitch better,” Cotham said. “But I don't think he's pitched as bad as his ERA says he has. If he just sticks with it and keeps working, we’ll look up at the end of the year and he’ll have had a really, really nice season. But I feel really good with the work. He feels really good with the work. And I'm expecting a lot of good things to come.”

Nola will make two starts before July 30, including Tuesday’s against the Yankees. Two strong starts could narrow the Phillies’ focus as they try to figure out how to best spend their limited resources, both in prospects and in payroll flexibility as they approach the Competitive Balance Tax threshold.