Nola thriving in September -- but were past woes just bad luck?

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Aaron Nola swears he feels no differently this September than past Septembers.

He is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four starts this month, including six scoreless innings Friday against the Braves at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are 3-1 in those starts.

It looks like a dramatic turnaround, doesn’t it? Nola, who starts Wednesday night against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, opened this month with a 4.60 ERA in his career in September/October, which was nearly a run higher than his career 3.63 ERA. Nola’s fall struggles included a 6.19 ERA in his final six starts in 2021, a 6.60 ERA in his final three starts in ‘20 and a 6.51 ERA in his final five starts in ‘19.

The Phillies were 3-11 in those starts.

“I feel just as strong as I do every September,” Nola said. “I guess I’m getting the results I want right now.”

Nola might be right. MLB.com’s Andrew Simon dug into Nola’s performance this month compared to his previous three Septembers/Octobers. He found that Nola was unlucky in 2020 and 2021, while he legitimately struggled in 2019.

For the first time in years, it seems like Nola is getting the fall results he deserves.

First, let’s look at Nola’s ERA compared to his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) in each of the past four years. FIP focuses solely on the events a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches and home runs. It removes the results of balls hit into the field of play, which can be affected greatly by a pitcher’s defense.

2022 (four starts): 2.08 ERA vs. 2.10 FIP
2021 (final six starts): 6.19 ERA vs. 3.23 FIP
2020 (final three starts): 6.60 ERA vs. 3.52 FIP
2019 (final five starts): 6.51 ERA vs. 4.88 FIP

Look at the wild disparity between Nola’s ERA and FIP in 2020 and 2021, compared to this season.

Second, let’s look at Nola’s wOBA vs. his expected wOBA. wOBA is a version of on-base percentage, but it measures how a player reaches base, instead of measuring if he reaches base. For example, a triple is worth more than a double, a double is worth more than a single, etc. xwOBA uses exit velocity, launch angle and, occasionally, sprint speed. This removes defense from the equation and focuses solely on quality of contact. xwOBA recognizes if a pitcher consistently surrenders weak contact, rather than heat-seeking missiles all over the field.

2022: .259 wOBA vs. .284 xwOBA
2021: .315 wOBA vs. .271 xwOBA
2020: .335 wOBA vs. .309 xwOBA
2019: .369 wOBA vs. .371 xwOBA

Nola’s wOBA is 56 points lower than 2021 and 76 points lower than 2020, but his xwOBA is 13 points higher than 2021 and only 25 points lower than 2020. The Phillies’ defense is playing a role in this. Statcast’s Outs Above Average looks at a team’s defense from the pitcher’s point of view. It is 0 OAA behind Nola this September – meaning it has not hurt him while he has pitched -- compared to Sept. 2021 (-4 OAA) and (-2 OAA) in Sept. 2020.

“It doesn’t look any different,” Rhys Hoskins said, correctly. “I know the results are different this September than they have [been] in the past. I still see him doing the same things in between his starts. Just a testament to his work ethic, his perseverance, right?”

After Wednesday, Nola is scheduled to make his final regular-season start on Monday in Houston. The Phillies flipped Nola’s and Ranger Suárez’s turns in the rotation this week because it allows Nola to pitch on Monday against the Astros, then Game 2 of a best-of-three NL Wild Card Series on Oct. 8 on normal rest.

Nola has pitched well all season, including this month.

The Phillies want him on the mound in a game that could either send them to a decisive Game 3, or pull off a sweep.