Judge's breakout on the horizon? It was only 'a matter of time'
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NEW YORK -- The ALCS orbits around Aaron Judge, the man with the power to make or break history.
Judge’s gravitational pull shapes games whether he’s standing in the box or looming in the distance, which is why the Guardians' incredible bullpen is their best chance for survival. Tuesday's wild Game 2 already showed us what the rest of this series could look like beginning Thursday in Cleveland.
When Stephen Vogt chose to walk Juan Soto in front of Judge on Tuesday to load the bases and bring in Cade Smith, it felt like a scene that belonged in a ninth inning. It was the bottom of the second, though. Yankees fans were still on their first beer. The game hadn’t even settled into itself, but the Guardians know they can’t survive what happens when Judge wins.
The Yankees have seen it over and again. That’s why, even with Judge’s postseason numbers trailing well behind the spectacle of his regular season, they knew it was coming.
“Always. Always,” said manager Aaron Boone. “Always a matter of time with Aaron.”
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Judge’s home run Tuesday hinted at the breakout the Yankees and their fans have been waiting on, but that’s not easy in October. Dodgers fans are waiting for the same thing from Shohei Ohtani who, like Judge, is at the center of any opponent’s bullpen plan to neutralize his game-changing talent.
This applies more broadly, of course. The best teams with the best pitching staffs make the postseason. All MLB hitters combined to produce a .711 OPS in the regular season, but that number has dropped to .648 this postseason. Someone like Judge deals with added layers to this, and surely, Vogt and the Guardians will look for every opportunity to line him up against elite relievers.
It’s an unstoppable force versus an immovable object at times.
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Judge’s Game 2 homer came off Hunter Gaddis, who posted a 1.57 ERA this season. The only other right-handed hitter to homer off him this season? Bobby Witt Jr. Only the best get Gaddis.
It wasn’t the type of pitch we’re used to seeing Judge crush, either. At 3.96 feet off the ground, it was the second-highest contact point of Judge’s 329 career homers, postseason included. Just one of Judge’s home runs in 2024 was hit on a pitch in the upper third of the zone -- an oddity as the Yankees and particularly Soto are among the best in baseball on those pitches -- but somehow, Judge got to it.
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Can the Guardians dismiss that as a worst-case outcome on a well-spotted pitch, or is Judge just starting to feel inevitable again?
Judge, of course, doesn’t want any credit. He’s a master of deflection, pointing to every name on the roster before his own.
“You can start at the top of our lineup with Gleyber [Torres] and Soto, who have been doing this [the] whole series and even the DS, just getting on base and getting things moving,” Judge said. “Then, pass it off to the big boy in the middle with [Giancarlo] Stanton. Get him up with a couple guys on, and something's going to happen. It takes a team effort. It's not just one guy to carry any team, especially when you're playing the best of the best, and guys are coming after you.”
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Judge knows exactly what’s happening. He knows he’s facing the best pitching and best planning he will all season. This isn’t a sleepy Tuesday night against a last-place team in mid-June.
“It's win or go home. Everything's on the line here,” Judge said. “It's just [that] you've got to come up in that spot. In that spot, lesson two, bases loaded, I am trying to get something out to the outfield and drive some runs in. Luckily, we were able to get one run there [in the second] and just pass it along. Every out, every inning, the first inning, everything's important.”
The perfect scenario for the Guardians in Game 3 might be Judge coming to the plate with an open base and two outs. Besides, the last time he faced Game 3 starter Matthew Boyd, Soto and Judge hit back-to-back home runs in the first inning.
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Like so many of the brightest stars in sports, it feels impossible to beat the Yankees without beating Judge first. That’s why his breakout would be so crucial to the Yankees reaching their first World Series since 2009, but also why it will be so challenging for him to do so. The Guardians are saving all of their best cards just for him.