Judge or Ohtani: Who is having the more historic season?

Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani both are putting together incredible seasons. But which player’s 2024 will go down as the most historic campaign?

This is a no-wrong-answers sort of situation, like picking between pizza or tacos. Nonetheless, we have gathered together nine MLB.com writers here with the purpose of making them pick.

On one hand, you have Judge’s pursuit of his own American League record of 62 home runs, set just two years ago. On the other hand, you have Ohtani’s charge toward MLB’s first 50-50 season. Both superstars are putting up spectacular overall numbers, too, but these are the sorts of headline accomplishments that baseball fans could be talking about for many years to come.

So without further ado, here is how our writers came down on this debate:

Jason Catania, supervising editor, breaking news
Ohtani, as usual for him, is doing something we’ve literally NEVER seen before by chasing the first 50-homer, 50-steal season in MLB history. Even when he wasn’t able to pitch this year, the international superstar still found a way to be a ridiculous two-way threat. Add in the fact that it’s coming in his first year with the Dodgers after signing a historic 10-year, $700 million contract, and well, Ohtani is as must-watch and as most-memorable as it gets.

Apologies to Judge, who is the sport’s premier offensive force right now, but the nightly buzz for each Ohtani homer OR stolen base will wind up being more thrilling and dramatic -- and fun! -- down the stretch than the Yankees captain’s repeat pursuit of 60-plus homers. And if Ohtani actually goes 50-50, we’ll look back on 2024 with that as the standout individual achievement.

The verdict: Ohtani

Will Leitch, national columnist
One of my favorite subplots of this season has been all the people learning, “wait … Shohei Ohtani is fast, too?” He has always been fast, of course, but this year, freed up from pitching (for now) and able to truly dig into how much easier it is to steal bases than it was when he first came in the league, he’s running like crazy. And that’s great. It’s amazing, actually.

But. Shohei is excelling at something that, we can all agree, has gotten easier in the last few years. You know what hasn’t gotten easier? Hitting! It’s ridiculously hard! Have you seen what these pitchers are throwing? And yet Aaron Judge is (likely) going to hit 60 homers (again) while also leading the Majors in RBIs, walks, slugging, on-base percentage and (obviously) OPS. Only one player in the past 80 years has had a better OPS+ -- essentially, how much better you are compared to every other hitter in baseball -- than Judge is going to have this year: Barry Bonds (who, uh, did it four times). If I’m mentioning your name in the same sentence as Bonds, you are doing something otherworldly.

Stealing bases is cool, particularly when you’re also going to hit 50 homers. But what Judge is doing is mind-blowing. It really might be the best season by a right-handed hitter of all time. There have been a lot of right-handed hitters!

The verdict: Judge

Anthony Castrovince, senior writer
Though Judge’s rate stats are, almost inconceivably, better than 2022, he is ultimately chasing … himself. And it’s going to take a Herculean effort down the stretch for him to reach 63 homers and break his own American League record. But Ohtani has already done something that has never been done before. Even if he falls short of 50-50, every home run and every steal he logs from here on out creates a previously non-existent “club” (the 43-43 club, the 45-46 club, etc.).

Some people might pooh-pooh this accomplishment because of the bigger bags and pickoff limits -- the same environment that accompanied Ronald Acuña Jr.’s first-of-its-kind 40-70 season a year ago. But while Ohtani is undoubtedly aided by these rules, it’s not as if the MLB rate of steals is in new and unrecognizable territory. League-wide, there was a higher rate of steals as recently as 1992. So, Ohtani’s contributions count. And the fact that he’s doing it at a listed 6-foot-4, 210 pounds (Jose Canseco was the only other man that large to have a 40-40 season) and -- oh, by the way -- while recovering from Tommy John surgery makes it even more incredible. Both of these seasons are extraordinary, but only Ohtani’s is, by definition, historic.

The verdict: Ohtani

Mike Petriello, stats analyst
“Will Aaron Judge get to 60 [or 62] home runs?” is obviously important, and yet … it’s not the most important thing about his season, at least to me. It’s not what I’ll remember. It’s that he’s going to have one of the 10 (or so) best all-around hitting seasons of all time, where the names ahead of him are Barry, Babe, Ted, and Mickey – and no, you don’t need their last names. He’s on track to have the greatest hitting season by a right-handed hitter ever. Ever! If he does that and “only” hits 59, it won’t diminish him at all in my eyes. Take everyone who stepped to the plate 4,000 times in a career, and Judge is now fifth-best, ever. It’s the homers, sure. It’s not just the homers. It’s all the overwhelming offensive dominance in all ways.

It’s not that I’m not impressed by Ohtani maybe doing 50-50, of course. I’m so impressed by Ohtani! But we did this a little with Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 40-70 last year, too; the rules changed to motivate more steals. They’ve worked tremendously. I’ll be interested to see if we’re now seeing these homer-steal marks challenged regularly in the years to come.

The verdict: Judge, and it isn’t close.

Brian Murphy, reporter
I agonized over which side to select before resting on the fact that there is no wrong answer here, so just go with your gut.

Ohtani is having the more historic season.

But in my mind, historic is not the optimal word for this exercise because both players are making history in their own way. Ultimately, Ohtani’s season is more memorable because it could be exclusive. As good of a year as Judge is enjoying -- it might be among the 10 best offensive seasons in AL/NL history, as Mike presented above -- we have seen something similar from him recently. Judge’s 62-homer campaign in 2022 ranks 17th-best all time by wRC+.

But who thought we would see Ohtani pair his prodigious power with the possibility of 50-plus steals? It’s gobsmacking how the player who commonly does things we’ve never seen before continues to do things we’ve never seen before -- all while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

And look, we gravitate toward big, round numbers in sports. Although Judge has been absolutely dominant, there is something about 50-50 that will stick with baseball fans. There are only six players who have made it into the 40-40 club. Going a level beyond that is almost unfathomable.

In closing, Ohtani’s 2024 season stands to be more “historic” for this reason: We are witnessing the world’s most talented baseball player achieve something that has never been accomplished in the big leagues.

The verdict: Ohtani

Thomas Harrigan, manager, research and breaking news
Judge is certainly in rarefied air here, especially when you also consider what he did two years ago. He has a chance to become just the third player with more than one 60-homer campaign and only the 10th player in the Modern Era (since 1900) with an OPS+ of 210 or higher in multiple qualifying seasons. A Triple Crown remains in play, too. But if you’re looking for who is having the more historic season this year alone, it’s Ohtani.

As amazing as Judge has been, we’ve seen this before, be it from the Yankees slugger himself or some of the other great hitters throughout baseball history. Ohtani, on the other hand, could create the 50-50 club. Given the rarity of 50-homer seasons in general -- there have been only eight of them dating back to the start of 2008, three by Judge -- it could be quite a while before we see someone else make a 50-50 bid, even with last year’s rule changes leading to an uptick in stolen bases.

The verdict: Ohtani

Manny Randhawa, reporter
We’re talking about the presumptive MVPs here, and both are primed to make history. But as incredible as Ohtani’s potential inauguration of the 50-homer/50-steal club would be, Judge also has a chance to do something unprecedented -- and it’s on the basis of an all-around offensive campaign, not just homers and steals: hit 60 or more home runs with an OPS+ of 210 or greater in multiple seasons.

Judge set an AL record with 62 home runs while posting a 210 OPS+ in his incredible 2022 campaign. This season, he has a legitimate shot to eclipse 60 homers again (he’s currently on pace for 58), and his OPS+ entering Saturday was at 221.

The only other players to ever achieve those numbers in a season once are Babe Ruth (1927), Mark McGwire (1998) and Barry Bonds (2001). And given that Judge currently has a higher OPS+ than McGwire did in 1998, the argument could be made that Judge is putting together the greatest offensive season by a right-handed hitter in the history of the game, as Mr. Petriello notes above.

The verdict: Judge

Sarah Langs, manager, research and special projects
To be clear: this is impossible and that is what makes baseball the best. We are so lucky to witness these two performances, and the fact that they are happening at the same time is amazing.

Aaron Judge is outstanding and no matter how many home runs he finishes with, this will have been a better season than his 62-homer campaign. This is absolutely nothing against him.

But if I am approaching this as who is having a more historic season, the answer is Ohtani. It isn’t even about the 50-50. Yes, we all know there have been rule changes to encourage stolen bases. It’s about the fact that a player who is a very good pitcher is now also having a power-speed season. When Ohtani reached 40 stolen bases, he became the 5th player with at least one 200-strikeout season as a pitcher and 40-stolen base season. The other four all did so before the mound was moved to its current distance in 1893 and the modern stolen base rule was adopted in 1898. He is second in the Majors in both home runs and stolen bases. The only players to finish top two in homers and stolen bases in the same season are 1908 Honus Wagner and 1909 Ty Cobb.

The verdict: Ohtani

Mark Feinsand, senior national reporter
Asking us to choose between these two players and the seasons they’re having almost doesn’t seem fair. Judge and Ohtani have cemented their status as the two best players in the game, and what they’re doing in 2024 is simply a continuation of what we have witnessed from them in recent years.

Ohtani’s pursuit of 50-50 is certainly the more historic by definition, as he is attempting to establish a club that no player has ever joined before. But Judge’s season is more impressive to me because he has done it in a lineup with exactly one other offensive threat: Juan Soto. When the Blue Jays walked Judge repeatedly last month -- including an intentional walk with nobody on base! -- I began to think every team would begin employing such a strategy. After all, with Soto hitting in front of Judge, there simply hasn’t been a legitimate threat hitting behind him all season.

As my buddy Mike Petriello noted above, Judge is on track to have perhaps the greatest season by a right-handed hitter in history. That’s pretty historic, whether he breaks his own AL home run record or not. Ohtani’s potential 50-50 season is amazing, but steals have gone up with the new rule changes, so there’s a bit of an asterisk there in my mind. It’s a fascinating debate, but I’ll go with Judge.

The verdict: Judge

OVERALL RESULTS: Five votes for Ohtani, four votes for Judge.

Our panel's picks demonstrate how our focus question is a real tossup. But Ohtani's year as a dual-threat dynamo gets the edge over Judge's season, in which he has been a juggernaut at the plate once again.