Judge, Ohtani become odds-on favorites in MVP races

This article was contributed by BetMGM. For more sports betting insights, check out BetMGM.com.

New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge and Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani have started to separate themselves as favorites in the MVP races of their respective leagues.

According to the latest odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook, Judge is -200 to win his second American League MVP Award. This significant figure gives him an implied probability of 66.67% of winning the award just past the midway point of the 2024 regular season.

Ohtani is in his first season in the National League after winning AL MVP twice. He is -140 for an implied probability of 58.33% to claim NL MVP this year.

However, while both players have a steep price tag to win MVP, it wasn’t too long ago that Judge and Ohtani weren’t even the favorites. In fact, both players were once behind their teammates.

In the NL, Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts appeared on his way to winning his first MVP Award since 2018 before getting hit by a pitch against the Kansas City Royals on June 16. Betts is now a +8000 long shot while sidelined with a fractured hand.

“Mookie getting injured really opened the top spot for Ohtani once he went down,” BetMGM senior trader Halvor Egeland said. “Ohtani leads the league in WAR, average and homers and would be a serious contender for the Triple Crown if he moved down a couple of spots in the order.”

Egeland admitted that BetMGM has received the most bets on the Phillies’ Bryce Harper, who is second in odds at +180. He’s a worthy contender if voters decide to weigh his defensive impact during his first season at first base.

Ohtani, who started the year with +900 odds in the NL MVP market, isn’t pitching this season and has played exclusively as a designated hitter. But his offensive numbers are undeniable, hitting .322 with 25 home runs, 21 doubles, 65 runs scored and 61 RBIs.

“I don't know how anyone is going to compete for MVP in future years, assuming he gets back on the mound,” Egeland said.

In the AL, Judge began as the betting favorite at +550. He was passed by Juan Soto in the first week of the season, as Soto maintained the top spot until June.

Judge continues to prove he’s one of the most potent offensive players in the league when healthy. This season, Judge is hitting .309 with 30 home runs, 23 doubles, and 77 RBIs.

In his 2022 MVP campaign, Judge led the Majors in home runs (62) and RBIs (131).

“It looks like Aaron Judge is just going to repeat his 2022 campaign,” Egeland said. “He's actually playing better now than what he was at this point in 2022.”

Judge leads the AL in bets for the award followed by Soto and Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Soto is third in AL MVP odds at +700, while Henderson is Judge’s most prominent challenger at +350.

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