A's look for better results in 2023 Draft Lottery

This story was excerpted from Martín Gallegos’ A’s Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

As the A’s front office contingent arrives in Nashville next week for the Winter Meetings, it’ll do so hoping for better luck after what transpired for the club a year ago.

With the MLB Draft shifting last year from the traditional order determined solely by records from the previous season in favor of a lottery system, the A’s were in a three-way tie for the best chance to land the No. 1 overall pick. Instead, they were the only team to fall out of the top three, while the Pirates and Nationals -- the other two clubs in that group -- secured the top two picks.

This time around, Oakland is in the same spot as one of three clubs (A’s, Royals, Rockies) with an 18.3% chance of obtaining the top overall selection for the 2024 MLB Draft. A’s executives will be on edge hoping the pingpong balls fall their way during this year’s MLB Draft Lottery, which takes place on Tuesday, Dec. 5, at 2:30 p.m. PT on MLB Network.

This year, 17 of the 18 non-playoff teams are eligible for the lottery. The Nationals are ineligible for this year’s lottery because teams that are “payor clubs” -- clubs that give, rather than receive, revenue-sharing dollars, are not allowed to be selected in consecutive lotteries.

Here’s a look at the odds to receive the No. 1 pick for each team participating in the lottery:

18.3 pct -- Athletics (.309 win pct)
18.3 -- Royals (.346)
18.3 -- Rockies (.364)
14.7 -- White Sox (.377)
8.3 -- Cardinals (.438)
6.1 -- Angels (.451)
4.3 -- Mets (.463)
3.0 -- Pirates (.469)
2.0 -- Guardians (.469)
1.6 -- Tigers (.481)
1.2 -- Red Sox (.481)
1.0 -- Giants (.488)
0.9 -- Reds (.506)
0.7 -- Padres (.506)
0.6 -- Yankees (.506)
0.4 -- Cubs (.512)
0.2 -- Mariners (.543)
0.0 -- Nationals (.438 -- ineligible for lottery pick)

The last time the A’s held a top-three pick was 1998, when they selected left-hander and future Big Three member Mark Mulder second overall. Only once have the A’s held the No. 1 pick, taking outfielder Rick Monday first overall in what was the first-ever MLB Draft back in 1965.

Who could the A’s select with a top pick? Draft boards could fluctuate once the college and high school baseball seasons get underway in the next few months. For an early look, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis recently ranked the top college prospects in next year’s Draft:

1. Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest: Kurtz batted .353/.527/.784 with 24 home runs as a sophomore, putting him in the conversation to become just the second college first baseman to be selected No. 1 overall and first since Spencer Torkelson in 2020.

2. JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia: Wetherholt is arguably the best pure hitter in the entire Draft class as he comes off a stellar campaign in which he won the NCAA Division I batting crown and Big 12 Conference Player of the Year honors after slashing .449/.517/.787 with 16 home runs and 36 stolen bases.

3. Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State: Bazzana followed up a strong season at OSU by winning the Cape Cod League batting title (.375) and MVP award this summer.

Rounding out Callis’ top five college prospects are Florida two-way player (first baseman/left-handed pitcher) Jac Caglianone and Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns.