Southpaws surge in SP Power Rankings

The southpaw is surging across MLB.

Last season, there was a bit of a lull for left-handers, with only one (the Cubs’ Justin Steele) finishing among the top 10 in FanGraphs’ version of pitcher WAR. While then-Padres lefty Blake Snell did take NL Cy Young honors, only two of his compatriots were also among the 20 AL or NL pitchers to receive votes for the award (Framber Valdez was ninth in the AL; Steele was fifth in the NL).

In 2024, it’s a different story entirely. Heading into Wednesday, southpaws took up six of the top 10 spots in fWAR, and they landed in five of the top 10 spots in our latest Starting Pitcher Power Rankings. Three lefties have combined to lead this poll four consecutive times, going back to May 23.

Here are the latest Starting Pitcher Power Rankings, with our MLB.com panel once again considering career track record, season-long performance and recent success. (All stats are through Tuesday’s games.)

1. Tarik Skubal, Tigers (Last poll: 2)
Skubal has factored into every edition of these rankings in 2024, with five straight appearances in the top two. This is his second time in the No. 1 spot. The 27-year-old has more than made good on his considerable hype as a preseason breakout candidate and looks like a clear AL Cy Young Award favorite. Skubal came off the injured list to make his 2023 debut exactly one year ago, and in roughly a full season’s worth of work since then (32 starts), he’s gone 16-6 with a 2.60 ERA, 165 ERA+ and 221 strikeouts.

2. Corbin Burnes, Orioles (4)
Burnes dipped as low as ninth in these rankings in late May but has been trending upward again. Baltimore’s ace has been absolutely as advertised following an offseason trade from Milwaukee: a durable, consistent and productive starter for a team with championship aspirations. Burnes has pitched at least five innings in each of his 17 outings (and gone six-plus 14 times), and only once has he allowed more than three runs. The highest his ERA has climbed after any start this year? 2.83.

3. Garrett Crochet, White Sox (8)
Two questions loom over Crochet’s phenomenal season: 1) How many more innings will he throw as a 25-year-old converted reliever with minimal workloads in his past, and 2) Will the White Sox trade him before the July 30 Deadline? No matter the answers to those questions, what Crochet has accomplished thus far is nothing short of astonishing. The AL Pitcher of the Month for June leads the AL in FIP (2.37), strikeouts (141) and K/9 rate (12.5).

4. Paul Skenes, Pirates (7)
How do you know things are going well for Skenes so far? He didn’t have his best stuff last Saturday at Atlanta, yet still gutted through six innings while allowing just one run and striking out nine in only his ninth career start. Afterward, his manager called it “a big learning moment” for the way he made adjustments. Believe it or not, there is a legitimate case to be made that the 22-year-old should start the All-Star Game for the NL.

5. Seth Lugo, Royals (not ranked)
One could argue that our voting panel has been slow to warm up to Lugo’s excellent season, given his age (34) and relatively light track record of MLB success as a starting pitcher. But after signing a two-year, $30 million deal with the Royals this past offseason, Lugo has delivered beyond the club’s wildest hopes. He leads the Majors in wins (11), innings pitched (116), ERA (2.17), ERA+ (196) and Baseball Reference’s version of pitcher WAR (4.2).

6. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (6)
If Wheeler has slowed down a bit since his dominant start to the season, it’s not by much. While the Orioles did knock him around for four homers and eight earned runs on June 16 at Camden Yards, that was his only hiccup over an eight-start span entering Wednesday's outing in Chicago. Wheeler has allowed no more than one earned run in an outing 10 times this season.

7. Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers (9)
The 30-year-old righty looks to be in line for his first All-Star selection. Before throwing his first pitch of July, Glasnow is only four starts, 17 innings and 26 strikeouts away from matching his career highs (all set last year). His unprecedented durability has been huge for a Dodgers rotation dealing with injuries to many of its other top options.

8. Ranger Suárez, Phillies (1)
Suárez rose all the way to No. 1 in our previous rankings but in two starts since then has allowed 10 runs (eight earned) with only four strikeouts over 10 2/3 innings. Clearly, the soft-tossing lefty wasn’t going to keep up his breakneck early-season pace, but he still leads the NL with 10 wins, a 2.27 ERA and a 178 ERA+.

9. Chris Sale, Braves (not ranked)
Sale’s rejuvenation this season -- at age 35 and coming off years of injury-related frustration -- has been beyond impressive. The MLB leader in FIP (2.32) is once again a serious Cy Young Award contender. After an isolated blowup against the A’s on June 1, Sale posted a 2.08 ERA and 36-to-7 K-to-BB ratio over his next four starts before shutting down the Giants on Wednesday night.

10. Max Fried, Braves (not ranked)
That’s two Atlanta lefties in a row to close out the top 10. Fried is set to become a free agent after this season, and right now, he is making a strong contract push. Going back to a shutout against Miami on April 23, Fried has a 1.92 ERA over his past 12 starts, and he’s the only MLB pitcher with multiple complete games in 2024.

Others receiving votes: Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies), Logan Gilbert (Mariners), George Kirby (Mariners), Cole Ragans (Royals), Tanner Houck (Red Sox), Hunter Brown (Astros), Reynaldo López (Braves), Sonny Gray (Cardinals), Gavin Stone (Dodgers), Ronel Blanco (Astros)

Voters: Chris Begley, Jason Catania, Theo DeRosa, Daniel Feldman, Brian Murphy, Sweeny Murti, Efrain Ruiz, Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru, Andrew Simon, Ismail Soyugenc, David Venn, Tom Vourtsis