Friars' tide turns after missed chances in 6th

PHILADELPHIA -- Throughout the postseason, San Diego has seen just how much one inning can swing a game and, potentially, a series.

The Padres used a five-run seventh inning to get past the Dodgers in Game 4 of the National League Division Series. They also erupted for five runs in the fifth inning in Game 2 of this NLCS against the Phillies.

But this time, the Padres were on the wrong side of a key inning as the sixth proved to be a costly frame in the 4-2 loss to the Phillies in Game 3 on Friday night at Citizens Bank Park.

“Really tough,” said outfielder Juan Soto. “It’s a really good team over there. We tried our best, but things didn’t go our way.”

After executing a perfect hit-and-run with Brandon Drury and Jake Cronenworth, the Padres had the tying run 90 feet away with one out in the top half of the sixth. With right-hander Zach Eflin on the mound, Padres manager Bob Melvin opted to pinch-hit for first baseman Wil Myers with the switch-hitting Josh Bell.

Myers had put together a pair of good swings leading up to the at-bat, but those came against left-hander Ranger Suárez. Coming into Friday’s game, Myers, who was significantly better against lefty pitching than righties in 2022 (.815 OPS vs. left-handers, compared to a .659 OPS vs. righties), was 1-for-4 with one strikeout against Eflin in his career.

Bell, who played in the NL East with the Nationals earlier this season before being traded to the Padres at the Deadline, has had more career success against Eflin, albeit in a similarly small sample size. Entering Friday’s game, Bell was 2-for-5 lifetime with a homer and three RBIs off the Phillies’ right-hander.

Melvin and the Padres liked that matchup better, but didn’t get the result they were looking for as Bell grounded into an inning-ending double play on a 2-0 curveball that caught a lot of the plate. Following the play, the Padres’ win probability plummeted from 43.9 percent to 25.4, according to Baseball Savant.

“We’re definitely going to look back and see that we had chances, for sure,” said catcher Austin Nola. “I thought we were right there, seemingly every inning. Over seven games, that’s going to be good. If we continue to do that, it’s going to be really good.”

Things didn’t get any better for the Padres in the bottom of the inning. After starter Joe Musgrove got two quick outs, San Diego decided to stick with him against right-hander Nick Castellanos. To that point, Musgrove hadn’t been as sharp as he’s been in his previous two postseason starts and was at 96 pitches.

The Padres had left-hander Tim Hill warming up, but he was strictly for Bryson Stott, who was in the hole. San Diego could have had a righty warming, presumably Luis García, to replace Musgrove against Castellanos. Instead, Musgrove gave up a two-out double to Castellanos on a slider on the outside corner.

“I thought Joe could get the next guy out,” Melvin said. “I thought he pitched well. It was miraculous he got out of the first inning like he did. I thought [pitching coach Ruben Niebla] did a great job calming him down.”

On the very next pitch, Alec Bohm hit a sharp liner to right field. Soto made a diving attempt, but the ball missed his glove and rolled to the wall, leading to an RBI double. Soto, who was named a finalist for the Gold Glove Award in right field on Thursday, has had a shaky week in the outfield. But in this case, Soto had just a 10 percent catch probability according to Statcast.

The Padres’ win probability dropped to 15.5 percent following Bohm’s double.

“It was pretty close,” Soto said. “I was trying to move and be in a good spot, I just think it was pretty close. I really tried my best because if I don’t dive, the run probably was going to score easy anyway.”

A Jurickson Profar strikeout on a check swing in the ninth was another turning point for the Padres. It was a call that could have gone either way, though Profar was visibly angry after the call and was promptly ejected by home-plate umpire Ted Barrett.

But a better sixth inning could have also swung the series in San Diego’s favor. That’s how small the margin for error is in October, something the Padres have frequently taken advantage of thus far in the postseason. The odds worked against them on Friday.

“We’ll just come back tomorrow, and try to win,” Profar said. “We didn’t hit like we’re supposed to.”