These teams need to get on track ... fast

Bad starts happen to good teams all the time. Remember how we were writing off the Dodgers last year, after Corey Seager got hurt and they got swept by the Reds? Well, they ended up in the World Series. A lousy beginning of the season does not guarantee a lousy season.

But it does tend to get late early. If you expected to contend in 2019 and, you’re under .500 on May 10, that doesn’t mean your season is over. But it does mean you’re already behind the eight ball a bit. And, particularly in a season with more competitive teams than might have been anticipated -- raise your hand if you thought Arizona, San Diego and Seattle would be in playoff position this year -- you might have less time to get your season back on track than you think.

• MLB standings

There’s plenty of season left. But these teams would be well-served by getting in gear earlier rather than later.

Atlanta Braves

To be fair, the Braves only recently fell under .500, after the Dodgers wiped them out at the beginning of their West Coast swing this week. But even before that series, there were reasons to be concerned. The offense has been fine -- though it still feels like there’s some more thunder left waiting to be unleashed from Ronald Acuna Jr.’s bat -- with only Ender Inciarte struggling, but that’s actually sort of the problem; if, say, Nick Markakis takes a step back in the second half like he did last year, well, you’ve already wasted his hot start.

Much of the problem here is in the bullpen, where A.J. Minter has been erratic and there isn’t anyone you really trust right now. The Braves feel like they have the talent to be far ahead of .500 right now. So why aren’t they?

Chances of recovery: 70 percent. The Braves had a bad week, but this is pretty much the same team that won the division last year, except now they have Josh Donaldson. They wouldn’t happen to still have Craig Kimbrel’s number lying around, though, would they?

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have had buzzard’s luck this season. Despite outscoring their opponents by 23 runs, fifth-most in the National League and third in their own division, the Reds are six games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central. It doesn't help that everyone else in the division is at .500 or higher. It’s particularly a bummer, because the Reds’ rotation looks better than it has in years, with Luis Castillo finally becoming an ace and the rest of the staff giving the team a chance to win nearly every night.

The problem has been the offense, the one thing everyone thought there was no need to worry about. How is Joey Votto hitting .210? How is Yasiel Puig hitting .198? What has happened to Jose Peraza?

Chances of recovery: 35 percent. The Reds’ bats will come around, and their hitting luck has to turn around at some point. The problem remains the rest of this division. There isn’t an easy series to be had. The Reds have the talent to start winning games. But they’re already almost out of time.

Colorado Rockies

Is the era of good feelings in Denver already over? The team that reached the National League Division Series last year and then extended its franchise player came into the season with happy vibes, but it’s not working out so far. The Rockies have been carried by their pitching the last few years, but this year, behind German Marquez and Jon Gray, the rotation isn’t carrying its weight. Kyle Freeland, in particular, hasn’t been nearly as effective as he was last year.

Ian Desmond has never lived up to the contract he got a couple of years ago, and Daniel Murphy, the Rockies' big free-agent signing of the offseason, missed most of April with a broken finger, and he hasn’t really hit since he returned. They’re already 6 1/2 games out of first, in fourth place. This is not how 2019 was supposed to start.

Chances of recovery: 35 percent. Arizona and maybe San Diego might come down to earth, but the Dodgers aren’t going anywhere. And the second Wild Card spot might not come as easily as last year. The rotation needs to fix itself, and fast.

Los Angeles Angels

For all the help the Angels have been trying to get their superstar the last few seasons, they look pretty much like they always do: Mike Trout, and a bunch of players who keep letting down Mike Trout. Trout has been as brilliant as always, and guys like Brian Goodwin and David Fletcher have helped out, but both the rotation and the bullpen are in flux. And while it’s nice to have Shohei Ohtani back, his return means either Justin Bour (who’s hitting .178) or Albert Pujols (who has a .167 on-base percentage in May) has to play first base every day. But it won’t matter if they don’t fix their pitching.

Chances of recovery: 20 percent. Even if Pujols or Bour recovers, even if Trout has the peak season we all think he might, even if the entire lineup steps up, the pitching is unreliable right now, and there is no obvious path to fixing it.

New York Mets

Oh, if you could just somehow merge this year’s team with, say, the 2016 model. Take this offense and that team’s rotation and bullpen, and boy, you’d have something. The offense has taken a big step forward this year, with Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil leading one of the deeper Mets’ lineups we’ve seen in many a moon. Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo have been slumping, but even when they aren’t hitting they are drawing walks, and you expect them to turn it around.

Unfortunately, the rotation -- which is supposed to be the Mets’ big strength -- has faltered, with Jacob deGrom thus far falling far short of his magical 2018 season, and Zack Wheeler and especially Noah Syndergaard mixing occasional dominance with laborious outings.

Chance of recovery: 75 percent. The Mets have the highest Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds of any team on this list, and for good reason. The offense looks legit, and the rotation can’t pitch like this all year. They have a lot of room for growth over the next few months. Though it is the Mets, so who knows?

Washington Nationals

Obviously, the NL East has some disappointing teams right now -- half the teams on this list are from that division. But no team has been more of a bummer than the Nationals. Injuries have been a serious problem, with Trea Turner, Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon all missing significant time, and the vibe is just off in Washington these days.

There are even some wondering if the Nationals should maybe tear this down and start over. That’s a bit rash -- there is still so much young talent on this team -- but Rendon is a free agent next offseason. If they can’t sign him to an extension, does he become a trade candidate? The next three weeks are as pivotal for the Nationals as they are for any team in baseball.

Chance of recovery: 20 percent. Getting everyone back from the IL will help, but this team is already mired in fourth place and won’t get a lot of easy series in this division.