Here are 5 wagers that could really pay off
This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more sports betting insights, check out DraftKings.com.
One last day of MLB action in May. Here are some DraftKings Sportsbook picks that can help you finish off the month well.
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White Sox at Blue Jays
The wager: Total under 7.5 runs
Line: -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
On the surface, this looks like a battle of two top-flight pitchers and a pair of powerful offenses. But in reality, that’s not the case. Lucas Giolito and Kevin Gausman both have ERAs under 2.70 and have navigated some of baseball’s tougher lineups. If either is due to regress, it’s Giolito with his 3.69 FIP (vs. Gausman’s 1.31 FIP), but both are clearly among the game’s best right now.
Although the offenses backing them have some big names, neither has been elite this season against right-handed pitching. The Blue Jays do have the 11th-best ISO against righties, but they’re just outside the bottom 10 in OPS and wOBA against right-handers. The White Sox are bottom four in each of those categories.
Mets vs. Nationals
The wager: Pete Alonso over 1.5 total bases
Line: -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Patrick Corbin finally broke through for a win in his last start. But facing the Rockies outside of Coors Field is a much different test than taking on this Mets lineup. Right-handed hitters are smoking Corbin this month (39.2% hard-contact rate). His ground-ball rate is good (50.6%), but a 20.8% home run to fly ball rate with a 30.4% fly-ball rate isn’t.
What makes Alonso the best way to target Corbin is how New York’s big bat has turned it up against left-handed pitching this month. In 29 May plate appearances against lefties, Alonso has a 52.4% hard-contact rate, which has manifested into four home runs. Oddly enough, that’s also how many homers Alonso has against Corbin in 38 career plate appearances (plus two doubles). For those wondering: Alonso is +235 on DraftKings Sportsbook to go yard Tuesday.
Red Sox vs. Reds
The wager: Red Sox over 4.5 runs
Line: -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Taking the Red Sox on the run line (+140) was the preferred option for this game until DraftKings Sportsbook listed Boston’s total so low and at a good price. With the Red Sox coming off a shocking shutout loss vs. Baltimore, it’s unlikely that Luis Castillo and Cincinnati’s bullpen will be able to contain this offense. Boston has hammered this over since May 10, scoring five-plus runs 14 times in 20 games.
Now, the Reds have only surrendered five-plus runs in one of Castillo’s four starts this season. However, those outings came against three lineups that have not thrived against right-handed pitching. The Red Sox struggled against righties to start 2022, but they’ve surged into the top 10 in OPS, ISO and wOBA against righties.
Marlins at Rockies
The wager: Jazz Chisholm Jr. over 1.5 total bases
Line: -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
The last third of May hasn’t gone particularly well for Chisholm. On top of missing a chunk of time due to a hamstring issue, he’s 1-for-18 since May 20. Miami’s trip to Coors should help him get back on track.
Germán Márquez may keep the ball on the ground a lot, but lefties have more luck elevating the ball against him. He also doesn’t generate much soft contact from left-handed hitters. With a hard-contact rate north of 42.7% against right-handed pitching, Chisholm has a great chance to bust loose Tuesday.
Cardinals vs. Padres
The wager: Cardinals minus 1.5 runs
Line: +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
There are a lot of ways to back the Cardinals in this one. Paul Goldschmidt is +120 to go over 1.5 total bases, and he crushes left-handed pitching. The Cards, on the whole, are one of the best lineups against left-handed pitching, and they’re +110 to score over 4.5 runs.
With Adam Wainwright opposite Blake Snell, taking St. Louis on the run line goes to the top of the list. Although he’s been solid both on the road and at home this season, Wainwright is typically better at Busch Stadium. Snell showed improvement in his second 2022 start, but three runs in 5 1/3 innings still isn’t lights out.
More importantly, these two offenses are on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Cardinals are a top-five offense against left-handed pitching. The Padres are a bottom-five offense against right-handed pitching. All trends point to another multirun win for St. Louis vs. San Diego.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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