5 bets to consider for Yankees-Red Sox finale
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The Red Sox, Yankees and Sunday Night Baseball -- you don’t need much more than that. Baseball’s best rivalry will wrap up another series at Fenway Park. The Yankees won the first two games of the four-game series, but the Red Sox battled back to win Saturday’s contest in extra innings. That means they can salvage a series split with a win on Sunday.
That will be easier said than done. The Yankees have been hands-down the best team in baseball, winning 61 of their first 85 games. The Red Sox own the fourth-best record in the American League -- and the second-best mark in the AL East -- yet they still trail the Yankees by a ridiculous 15 games in the standings.
Can the Red Sox pull a bit closer with a win on Sunday or will the Yankees continue to march through everything in their path? Let’s dive into five of my favorite wagers for Sunday Night Baseball on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The wager: Under 9.0 runs
Line: -105 (Bet $105 to win $100)
The offenses typically get most of the attention when these two teams square off. Both squads are loaded with stud hitters and both teams rank in the top six in runs per game. The Yankees lead the league with an average of 5.22 runs per game, while the Red Sox aren’t far behind at 4.69.
However, both teams will have quality starters on the mound on Sunday. The Yankees will turn to Jameson Taillon, who has pitched to a 3.63 ERA and a 3.82 xERA this season. He’s not a top-tier starting pitcher, but he’s effective at keeping runs off the scoreboard.
The Red Sox will counter with Nick Pivetta, who has revitalized his career in 2022. He spent the early part of his career serving up batting practice with the Phillies -- he posted an ERA of 5.38 or worse in three out of four years -- but he’s down to 3.68 this season. That number would be even better if not for a tough outing in his last start, when he allowed seven runs over 5 2/3 innings vs. the Rays.
Pivetta’s numbers suggest he’s due for a bit of regression moving forward, but this matchup still features two above-average starting pitchers. The early sharp activity on this contest also favors the under -- which is grabbing 79 percent of the dollars on just 35 percent of the bets. I’m happy to join the sharps on this one.
The wager: Jarren Duran to record first hit
Line: +700 (Bet $100 to win $700)
The first-hit prop is one of the newer wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook and it’s a fun one. The odds are almost directly correlated with the lineup order, which obviously makes a ton of sense. The top three hitters for the away side have the lowest odds, followed by the top-of-the-order hitters for the home side. The farther you go down the batting order, the longer the odds become for each player.
The Yankees will bat first in this contest as the away team, which makes DJ LeMahieu (+220), Aaron Judge (+300) and Anthony Rizzo (+550) the three favorites. Pivetta has been equally tough on both righties and lefties, allowing an average of .232 or lower in both splits. It’s possible he can get through the top of the first inning clean.
If that happens, I like Duran’s chances of starting Boston’s half of the inning with a hit. Taillon has been mediocre against left-handed batters this season, surrendering a .264 batting average and a .335 wOBA. Duran has hit .349 against right-handed pitchers this season -- thanks, in part, to his 93rd percentile sprint speed. That gives him a better chance than most at securing a hit when he puts the ball in play.
The wager: Franchy Cordero to hit first homer
Line: +2000 (Bet $100 to win $2,000)
Let’s continue to pick on Taillon with left-handed batters. They’ve launched an average of 1.50 homers per nine innings against him, compared to just 0.68 for right-handers.
Boston’s top left-handed bat -- Rafael Devers -- is currently out of the lineup with a back injury, so we’ll have to get a bit creative. Duran and Alex Verdugo both fit the description, but Cordero is my favorite combination of odds and ability. He has excellent Statcast numbers this season, ranking in the 80th percentile in average exit velocity and the 87th percentile for hard-hit rate. His max exit velocity also ranks in the 99th percentile, so when he squares it up, the ball has the potential to go a long way.
Lineup spot also isn’t quite as important as it is in the first-hit prop. A premium spot in the lineup is still a nice luxury, but the first homer in a game will often come well after the first inning. That’s not the case for a first-hit prop.
The wager: Nick Pivetta under 5.5 strikeouts (-175)
Line: -175 (Bet $175 to win $100)
The Yankees have the reputation of being a free-swinging squad, which has been the case in years past. They had no problem trading a bit of contact for some extra power and they were among the best offenses in the league.
However, they’ve had to make no such tradeoff in 2022. They’re still hitting for tons of power -- they lead the league with 144 homers -- but they’ve cut down considerably on their strikeouts. They own the ninth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handers this season.
Pivetta is not a great strikeout pitcher to begin with, averaging just 8.52 strikeouts per nine innings. The under is juiced up significantly to -175, but it still stands out as an excellent value.
The wager: Red Sox ML & under 8.5 runs
Line: +340 (Bet $100 to win $340)
Since I already like the under and I’m leaning toward the Red Sox with my player props, it makes sense to sprinkle a bit of action on the Sox ML/under combo at +340. Underdogs tend to fare well in divisional matchups to begin with, especially ones with larger totals. If there is expected to be a handful of runs scored, it makes it much easier for the underdog to pull off an upset.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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